他预计自10月以来上涨12%的Home Depot将会下跌:325-335的阻力位以及334.85附近的趋势线/缺口回补应会压制股价。他正买入2027年1月15日到期、行权价325的看跌期权,逆市场而动,因为0.69的看跌/看涨比率显示市场仍看涨;若股价突破趋势线并持续上涨,则该判断失效。
逐段跳播
我们正在寻找像 Home Depot 股票这样的投资机会,它已经出现了显著的上涨。我一直在跟踪这只股票;自10月以来它已经上涨了12%。昨天,我们注意到价格向上跳空,而且股价还在继续上涨。
因此,我们 Verified Investing 认为,这一趋势偏向于下行。所以,我们将着重找出上方的阻力位,我们预计 Home Depot 股价会在这些位置止步。
We are looking for investment opportunities such as Home Depot stock, which has seen a remarkable rise. I've been following this stock; it's risen 12% since October. Yesterday, we noticed an upward price gap and the stock continues to rise.
Therefore, we at Verified Investing believe that this trend is leaning towards the downside. Therefore, we will focus on identifying the upward resistance levels at which we expect the Home Depot stock price to stop.
通常,在日内交易室或波段交易服务中,我们会做空这只股票,但在期权的世界里这行不通。在这里,我们可以买入看跌期权,利用这一前提,并把它应用到期权链上。
Normally, in day trading rooms or swing trading services, we sell this stock short, but this is not possible in the world of options. Here we can buy a put option, take advantage of this premise, and apply it to the options chain.
首先,这条清晰的白色趋势线,从2025年9月17日这里的最高点开始。它从这个参考高点起步,向下穿过这两个枢轴高点,然后到达这里的第四个枢轴点,现在正在这个区域向下收敛。目前还差得有点远,但测试这条趋势线大约会在334.85,距离当前价格走势大约还有20美元。
First, this clear white trend line from the highest point here on September 17, 2025. It starts here at this reference peak, cuts down through these two pivot peaks, then reaches a fourth pivot point here, and is now converging downwards here in this area.
It's still a bit far off , but testing this trend line would be at around 334.85, which is about $20 from the current price move.
好。我们这里还有一个枢轴点,在33137。正如我们所见,这是一个非常重的交易价位。价格曾反弹到该价位上方,随后从趋势线反弹,然后又回落到趋势线。正如我们所见,价格最初从它反弹,但随后跌破了它。
价格试图重新站上这一价位,但遇到了阻力。自那以后,价格反复由支撑转为阻力。因此,我会再次高度重视这一价位,把它当作阻力,尤其是因为它目前还没有被触及。
Good. We also have a pivot point here at 33137. As we can see, this is a very heavy trading level. The price bounced above this level, then bounced off the trend line, then went back down to it.
As we can see, the price initially bounced off it , but then fell below it. The price tried to regain this level but encountered resistance. Since then, the price has repeatedly changed from support to resistance .
Therefore, I will give this level great importance as a means of resistance once again, especially since it has not yet been reached.
自8月以来,这条趋势线一直有机会进行整理,而我们现在正看到一波急剧的上涨。急剧的上涨会带来急剧的下跌。
Since August, this trend line has had a chance to consolidate, and we are now witnessing a sharp upward movement . Sharp upward movements lead to sharp downward movements.
现在,图表上这里有一个很大的缺口,已经在334.85被回补。在这个阻力区,从325到335的枢轴高点之间,我们有多重因素构成的阻力。所以,简而言之,我认为价格不会越过这个区域。
Now, there is a large gap here on the charts, which has been filled at 334.85. In this resistance zone, from the pivot peaks at 325 to 335, we have multi- factor resistance. So, what I'm saying in short is that I don't think the price will go beyond this area.
是的,我不会参与这波行情。我不怕错过机会。既然 Home Depot 的股票已经上涨了12%,我现在不会买入。这就是我们对价格下跌预期的一个简要概述。
Yes, I will not join this movement. I am not afraid of missing the opportunity. I will not buy now that Home Depot's stock has risen by 12%. This is a quick overview of our expectations for a price drop.
所以,作为一名新手交易者,我打算在这里买入看跌期权。嗯,看看那个区域的执行价,从325到330,让我们看看整体市场情况是否适合找到一笔期权交易。
So, as a beginner trader, I am looking to buy a put option here. Well, looking at the execution prices in that area, from 325 to 330, let's see if the overall market situation is suitable for finding an options deal.
好,我们已经准备好了 Home Depot 股票图表。这大约就是确切的价格区间。清楚了吗?太棒了。好,我准备进入期权链,看看能不能在这里找到一个卖出机会。好。现在我们要更深入地研究这个系列。
好,我们这里看的是 Home Depot 股票,我们要在这里寻找一个卖出期权。
Okay, we have prepared the Home Depot stock chart. This is approximately the exact price range. Is this clear? amazing. Okay, I'm ready to move on to the options chain and see if we can find a selling opportunity here.
Good. Now we will delve deeper into the series. Okay, we're looking at Home Depot stock here , and we're looking for a sell option here.
如果你现在正在看我们,我们使用的是 IBKR 平台,也就是 Interactive Brokers。这是我们每天用来分析期权链的平台。我们现在在看跌期权这一侧,因为我们在寻找325到330之间的价格。
If you are watching us now, we are using the IBKR platform, Interactive Brokers. This is the platform we use daily to analyze the options chain. We're here on the put options side because we're looking for a price between 325 and 330.
好,Tabby,我们能一起算一下吗?可以。好,你也一样,我们一起做这个计算,这样你就能掌握它,在需要的时候随时使用。买入价,我们这里用315这个执行价。好。好,那等于15,15和0.7。
好。它们之间的差值是2美元。好。我们取2美元,也就是这个差值,然后用2美元除以买入价,也就是1570。那么,2美元除以157。对。哦,我的天。好。15。我们用计算器算,各位。稍等一下。
它给我的结果是0.127还有一堆其他数字。好。所以,大约是12美分。也就是说,大约12或12%。是的,而且这仍然非常好。是的,它接近健康到中等。
Okay, Tabby, can we do the math together? Yes. Okay, you too, let's do this calculation together, so that you can master it and use it whenever you need it . Purchase price, let's use the execution price of 315 here.
Good. Okay, that equals 15, 15 and 0.7. Okay . The difference between them is $2. Good. We will take $2, that is the difference, and we will divide $2 by the purchase price , which is 1570.
So, $2 divided by 157. Correct. Oh, my God. Good. 15. We're using a calculator, guys. Wait a moment. It gives me 0.127 and a bunch of other numbers. Good. So, it's about 12 cents.
That is, about 12 or 12%. Yes, and it's still very good. Yes, it is close to being healthy to moderate.
所以记住,我们把小数点稍微移动一下。我们大家变得擅长做这些计算还没多久。好,那么 Tabby,我们刚刚学到的是,12%落在哪里?这是我们的利润率,对吧?所以这些是没耐心的人。这个利润率处在什么位置?
是健康的?还是不健康的?我会说它非常接近不健康,因为我们说过健康的百分比范围在5%到10%之间。好。这个12%的百分比稍微更接近15%。所以我不知道。那么,15%仍然算健康。中等。
好,所以我们没问题。所以我们没问题。它落在健康和中等之间。好。如果我们有一个好的交易结构,这仍然是合适的。好。好。这说得通吗?是的。如果我们看我们的利润率,如果它更接近20%,风险就会更大。
我们想把交易掌握在自己手里。太棒了。我们不做这些交易。好。
So remember that we move the decimal point slightly. It hasn't been a long time since we all became good at doing calculations. Okay, so Tabby, what we just learned is that 12%, where does that fall?
This is our profit margin , right? So these are the impatient people . Where is this margin located? Is it healthy? Or unhealthy? I would say it is very close to being unhealthy, because we said that the healthy percentage ranges between 5 and 10%.
Good. This percentage of 12% is slightly closer to 15%. So I don't know. So, 15% is still considered healthy. Average. Good. So we're fine. So we are fine. It falls between healthy and average.
Good. If we have a good setup, this is still appropriate. Good. Good. Does this make sense? Yes. If we look at our profit margin , if it is closer to 20%, it will be riskier. We want to keep the deal in our hands. amazing. We do not trade them. Good.
所以,我在这里看的是看跌期权系列。我看周度买入期权,我不太喜欢它们。我在找接下来几个月的期权。我在看325到330的价格区间。我们要确保有一个好的 delta 值。那么,现在看1月15日这个日期。
等等,这是 delta 的值吗?哦,3.25。是的。所以,现在是买入的正确时机。漂亮。我喜欢这个 Delta 值。是的,我也是。你为什么喜欢它,Tabi?负值是0.5。负值意味着它在看跌期权这一侧,而我们正处在0.5这个理想点上。
这个完美的0.5分对你来说意味着什么?它简单来说就是我们将会赚取的利润量。大概的概率是多少?是的,几乎肯定。是的。是的。是的。很好,是的,正是如此。我们在这里更接近盈利。所以是的,非常好。好,是的,我喜欢这里325这个执行价。
So, I'm looking at the put option series here. I look at the weekly purchase options, I don't prefer them. I'm looking for options for the next several months. I was looking at the price range of 325 to 330.
We want to make sure we have a good delta value . So, now look at the date January 15th. Wait, is this the value of delta? Oh, 3.25. Yes. So, this is the right time to buy. Beautiful.
I like this Delta value. Yes, me too. Why do you like it, Tabi? The negative value is 0.5. A negative value means that it is on the put option side , and we are at that ideal point of 0.5.
What does that perfect score of 0.5 mean to you? It simply means the amount of profit we will make. What is the approximate probability? Yes, almost certainly. Yes. Yes. Yes. It's good, yes, exactly.
We are closer to profit here. So yes, excellent. Okay , yes, I like the execution price of 325 here.
我们现在再做一笔。我们取325这个卖价,也就是2330。好。那么价差大约是210。所以我们用2540减去2330得到210。好。然后我们把结果除以2330。计算后,我们得到9%。
好。这很好。我喜欢这个。那你为什么喜欢它?因为它处在5%到10%这个非常健康的范围内。是的。那为什么它是健康的?价差是宽还是窄?价差很小。好。这么窄的价差,会导致执行差还是执行好?
执行好,因为它减少了不确定性,也许还有急躁。对。我可能会说错。不一定是确定性。贵。嗯,其实并不贵。耐心。我用了这个关键词。不错。只是用了一些形容词。没必要担心。周五。我们玩得很开心。好,当然。
Let's do another one now . Let's take the offer price of 325, which is 2330. Okay. Then the price difference is about 210. So we subtract 2330 from 2540 to get 210. Okay. Then we divide the result by 2330.
When calculating, we get 9 %. Good. That's good. I like this. And why do you like it? Because it is within the very healthy range of 5 to 10%. Yes. And why is it healthy? Is the price difference wide or narrow ?
The price difference is small. Good. With such a narrow price difference, will this result in poor or good execution? Good implementation because it reduces uncertainty and perhaps impatience. correct.
I might say something wrong. Not necessarily uncertainty. Expensive. Well, it's not really expensive. patience. I used this keyword. decent. Just using some adjectives. There's no need to worry. Friday . We are having fun . Okay, definitely.
所以,我在看……好,各位,我们能做什么呢?这是另一条通用规则,也是一个你可以上手的好技巧。买价是2330,卖价是2540。我们能做的就是所谓的“走线”。好。如果我们有足够的时间,我们可以从买价开始,挂一个具体的订单,然后等30秒到一分钟,看看它会不会成交。
可能会有恐慌的卖家。如果没有,我们可以从中间价开始。这会在哪里?大约24,24和10美分。这就是中间价。我们可以从那里开始,这是一个更公平的价格,然后看看它会不会被执行。好,耐心点。
30秒到一分钟。大多数时候,做市商会来找我们,要求我们执行这笔交易。这样,我们就不会反复发出立即入场的买入请求,而是寻求获得一个公平的价格。是的。用这个期权,我们有可能错过这笔交易。
这就是取舍,就像市价单一样。如果你发出一个反复的市价请求,你就是在告诉市场:我现在就要入场。但你可能会得到一个非常差的执行价。用限价单,情况类似。你发出的请求是,你想要这个价格或更好的价格。
期权也是一样。你可以向卖价靠拢,但它可能永远不会被执行,你可能会错过这笔交易。哦,我的天!是的。各位,今天的交易就是这样设置的。
So, I'm looking...okay, what can we do, guys? This is another general rule, and a great technique you can start with. The bid price is 2330 and the ask price is 2540. What we can do is what is called " walking the line".
Good . If we have enough time, we can start with the bid price and place a specific order, then wait 30 seconds to a minute to see if it will be executed. There might be a panicked salesperson.
If there isn't one , we can start from the middle. Where will this be? Approximately 24 and 24 and 10 cents. This is the middle. We can start from there, which is a fairer price, and then see if it will be implemented.
Okay, be patient. From 30 seconds to one minute. Most of the time, the market maker comes to us and asks us to execute the deal. In this way, we do not send repeated purchase requests for immediate entry , but rather seek to obtain a fair price.
Yes. With this option, we have the potential to miss out on the deal. This is the trade-off, just like a market order. If you send a recurring market request , you are telling the market: I want to enter now.
But you might get a very poor execution. With a fixed price order, the situation is similar. You are sending a request stating that you want this price or a better price. The same applies to options.
You can move towards the asking price, but it may never be executed , and you may miss the deal. Oh, my God! Yes. This is how the deal is set up today, guys.
我们将买入 Home Depot 股票的看跌期权。Tabby 说我们的 delta 非常好,因为是买入看跌期权,所以这个 delta 是负的,而且价差也不错。今天就到这里。是的。
关于这笔交易,我们还有什么最后要说的吗?我们要买入一份到期日为1月5日的看涨期权。这不是买入期权。你说得对。是卖出期权。非常抱歉。我一看到“买入”这个词,脑子就一片空白。各位,请多包涵。
好。到期日是2027年1月15日。我们以325的价格买入看跌期权。价格在累积阻力位处高出12%。delta 的值为-0.59。这个负值对我们有利,因为我们预计看跌期权的价格会下跌。
这个0.5的值远高于我们目标区间内偏好的0.4的 delta 值。看涨期权与看跌期权的比率为0.69,这意味着市场仍然看涨。所以我们在这里是逆势而行。是的,这就是我们在“Documented Investment”有时会做的事。我们遵循的是一种逆势而行的策略。
We will buy a put option on Home Depot shares. Tabby said we have an excellent delta, which is negative because we are buying a put option, and the price difference is good. That's all for today.
Yes. Do we have any final words regarding the deal? We are buying a call option with a date of January 5th. It is not a purchase option. You are right. It's a sell option. I'm very sorry.
I saw the word "buy" and my mind went blank. Bear with me, all of you. Good. The expiry date is January 15, 2027. We are buying a put option at 325. The price is 12% higher at an accumulated resistance level.
The value of delta is -0.59. The negative value is good for us because we expect the put option price to decrease. This value of 0.5 is much higher than the 0.4 we prefer for a delta value in our target range.
The ratio of call to put options is 0.69, which means the market is still bullish. So we are going against the grain here. Yes, that's what we sometimes do here at "Documented Investment".
We follow a strategy that goes against the grain.
所以我们在这里是逆势而行。是的,这就是我们在“Documented Investment”有时会做的事。我们遵循的是一种逆当前趋势而行的策略。所以,我们并不是在寻找捷径。相反,我们等到这波价格突破动能耗尽,然后果断出手,采取相应的行动。这很好。很好。
So we are going against the grain here. Yes, that's what we sometimes do here at "Documented Investment". We follow a strategy that goes against the prevailing trend. So, we are not seeking a hack.
Rather, we wait until this price breakout is exhausted, then we pounce and take the appropriate action. This is good. good.
这笔交易的前提已经失效。如果 Home Depot 的股价涨到你之前在 TradingView 平台上看到的那条趋势线,然后突破这条线并继续上涨,那么这个假设就不成立了,你应该退出这笔交易。
请务必把这一点应用到你自己做的交易中,并为此负责。
The premise of this deal has failed. If the Home Depot stock price rises to the trend line you saw on the TradingView platform, and then breaks this line and continues to rise, the assumption becomes invalid, and you should exit the trade .
Make sure you apply this to your own deals, and take responsibility.