HIMS 属于高风险投机性买入标的，巨大的潜在市场规模与超过 50% 的增长潜力，与激烈竞争、监管不确定性及利润率承压风险相互抵消。

Hims & Hers is one of the most talked-about stocks in the market. It is also one of the most volatile stocks . The stock has risen by 250% over the past five years , but if you look at it over the past year, the stock has fallen by about 50%. There's a lot going on inside the company.

We will conclude our discussion with the question: Is this stock to buy or sell today? No, I want to believe in this stock, but okay. Let's start with what the company does. So, this falls somewhat under what we call telehealth.

It's a bit different from what we've seen in the past with some of the older telehealth companies , but it's about having an app; there's the Hims app and the Hers app. You can access them and then they have specializations that can be accessed.

So, things like weight loss have received a lot of attention over the past 18 to 24 months. But there's also testosterone, you know, erectile dysfunction is something they've actually started with.

A type of interesting viral campaign that they ran in this field . Hair loss. Therefore, there is now a range of different specializations that they not only possess, but also add.

I think the idea here is that they are trying to build a platform in the healthcare field . Therefore, many of the moves they have made recently , such as adding artificial intelligence and laboratories .

This is something I experienced myself, so I gained much more information about my health. Then it comes back to you in a way that is more easily accessible than the traditional way of going to the doctor and having tests done, and perhaps having to pay huge sums of money for that. It's a very easy process.

But, when you look at Hims&Hers, is this a fair way to categorize businesses and what kind of vision is it for the future? Do they want to be the first place you go to for healthcare questions?

Perhaps this is not what they are today, but this is what they are slowly building.

I think so. I think this is how they see themselves. Let's be honest, the health system is flawed and needs fixing, and they are putting forward a model they envision for the future .

Yes, I think they described themselves as multidisciplinary, so they wouldn't be satisfied with just one thing, and as I mentioned, they are present in many fields. They often work in areas where they can currently benefit.

You know, the most controversial issues, which seems logical to me. I don't mean that as criticism at all. This is what they must do . But yes, they want to be by your side, from virtual consultations and diagnoses to prescriptions for a variety of issues.

I think they would like to see that grow over time. I think they are evolving towards that kind of private medical care that we see on the other side, where doctors are moving away from the insurance system.

We are heading towards this gray area where private medical care is expanding outside the system, and growing more and more online. I think they hope to be the initiators, the grand platform, once we arrive in this new world .

Yes, I just want to highlight something you said, which is "outside the traditional ecosystem". One of the things that Hems & Hers does not currently do is accept insurance, and I think that is a very important decision by management.

Because what management has said explicitly in the past—and they receive questions on almost every conference call about: "When will you start accepting insurance?"—and some of their competitors, like Rowe, already accept insurance.

But what they said was that we cannot change the status quo while we live within it. So I think this is an interesting situation, and if you look at what has happened with GLP-1 drugs over the past two years, they have started to introduce them.

We should address this matter a little. But they have already started offering GLP-1 drugs . They have pharmaceutical compounding facilities , 503A and 503B facilities which they own themselves.

They produced these weight loss solutions. Semaglutide , I think it was the most prominent. But that was done under an exemption from the Food and Drug Administration. When that exemption ended, they had pushed the limits of expectations as far as they could.

The idea was: "Hey, we can offer this at a much lower price ." That should be part of the FDA's calculations . I do n't think they really won that war. But in the end, we saw the cost of the GLP-1 drug drop from thousands of dollars a month to about one-tenth of that amount.

So it seems the incentive here is for Hims&Hers to bring some price transparency to the market. I believe that doing so outside the scope of the traditional insurance system could make a significant difference.

Since they are getting some benefits from the volume of work, they have now reached about 2.9 million subscribers, according to them. The average subscriber's spending is still only about $92 per month.

You know, that's a lot of money, but it means the average subscriber gets, you know , a pill for hair loss or maybe a pill for erectile dysfunction for $20 or $30. They don't spend $300, which is the level at which weight loss treatment begins.

So I think there are a lot of opportunities to bring more solutions to this platform , add more subscribers, and actually do it at a lower cost because of those twisted incentives that exist in the traditional doctor, pharmacy and insurance system.

I think this is fair. I mean, look, the problem is that there are limits to this . I mean, the more they expand their efforts to disrupt the system, the greater the burdens they will have to bear and the greater the complications they will face.

Therefore, I think it is beneficial for them to stay in the chronic and highly personal health categories, because firstly, it is a chronic condition which means recurring income, and secondly, there is a real need for people who are looking for alternatives outside the system.

If you only have, I do n't know, high cholesterol or gangrene in your leg or something like that, then you're probably not in their target audience. I'm just trying to say that there are limits to the scope in which they can operate, but within these categories which are, let's be honest, very subject to influencers and third-party marketing .

This is in their best interest. Again, there is nothing wrong with that, they rely on this approach, and they are indeed doing it. So, I think when you think about trying to scale up the model and thinking about long-term positive expectations, I'm not sure it will be as successful in other areas as it is in the areas they are working in now.

Hims&Hers deserves credit for targeting the most profitable areas, as it should . Do you think that something like artificial intelligence in healthcare could become an area where they can excel, turning into a feedback loop?

What I'm thinking is that I'm collecting a lot of data about my health. I wear a Garmin watch all the time. I have a Garmin scale. You know, this gathers information not only about my weight, but also my heart rate and how much exercise I do.

I can easily enter data related to what I eat. There are many interesting tools for this purpose. Then add to that the results of the laboratory tests. But how will all this be handled?

I mean, the challenge with visiting the doctor is that you go at a specific point in time, right ? For example, they measure your blood pressure. This is not your everyday blood pressure .

It's your blood pressure at that moment only. Therefore, they will make a medical decision or prescribe treatment for you based on that single moment. Now we are moving into a world where this data is available 24/7.

Therefore, it seems to me that having a platform that helps you live a healthier life consistently by being more proactive could be a positive thing. Some of the things we're talking about that Hims&Hers is bringing to market, such as peptides, have received the most attention in the last year or so.

This type of more proactive solution, such as conducting laboratory tests, would be a more proactive approach. They also offer a cancer screening service through "Galileo" . It seems that a platform like this could be a different way of thinking about health instead of only going to the doctor when something goes wrong , which is what you're talking about.

Well, maybe, but preventative visits are still encouraged, and I mean that considering a physical exam or medical visit as a one-time event rather than an ongoing relationship is a personal choice.

This option may be necessary. Well, yes, I think it is indeed an option. This is the choice I made considering the healthcare ecosystem , but yes. Yes, I mean that's good, and look, doctors are starting to incorporate continuous data into their system.

There are dedicated places for my doctor where you can link their "MyChart" system to "Google Health" and see all that data . The problem, and I think this will be a hindrance to artificial intelligence, is that most doctors will tell you that there are no simple equations of the "if A happens, B will happen" type.

Health is much more complicated than that. This points to the opportunities available with the collection of all this data, but it also indicates that it contains a lot more noise than it is useful.

Perhaps yes, artificial intelligence can help filter that. But again, I think it will be more complicated, and not the quick fix you imagine. Whether that opportunity will benefit them or others, it is likely to benefit both parties.

But I don't think there will be a magic app to keep you healthy. Just as I do n't believe that some of these "life improvement" techniques have yielded good results for people .

So, you know, there's a lot of charlatanism in healthcare, but there are also real opportunities for improvement, so I don't want to be dismissive, and I don't believe that "Him" is the path to paradise.

Well, we'll see if they are able to develop these things to become more than just a product company as they are today. I think they are at a really interesting stage. Particularly with regard to GLP-1 drugs, we saw that battle with Novo Nordisk earlier this year when they introduced a combination drug, and Novo Nordisk said: Hold on a moment.

This is going too far , and they have filed a lawsuit. That lawsuit didn't actually go anywhere. It was a patent case that could have taken five or six years to resolve. So they ended up making up and working together now.

This is one of the things that actually contributed to the growth of Hem and Her revenues during the last quarter only, because that was when the impact actually started to appear.

But this effect will help the company grow by an expected rate exceeding 50 % in the second half of 2026. The other side is that they are giving up some profit margins in return, because they are working with larger pharmaceutical companies.

It will be interesting to see how they try to work within the system with pharmaceutical companies, with the possibility of greater pressure on profit margins until they reach a point where having 3 million subscribers is considered great.

But if you have 20 or 30 million, you are now in a real position of power, reaching a stage similar to Netflix in content buying, where you say: We don't need your products. We can deal with someone else.

Therefore, we will pay you a slightly lower price.

We'll see how things go from a financial perspective. I want you to present an optimistic viewpoint regarding the company's stock, and we will move on to discussing the valuation shortly .

But if we look to the future five years from now and this company is a winner by a landslide , what went right?

Well, they continued to grow. I mean, you mentioned that, but look at their current level, they're targeting around $3 billion, and their goal for 2030 is to double that, I think.

So I think it's just a continuation of the same approach, with slow expansion. As I said, I wonder how many other areas they can continue to grow in, but I think they have managed to shift towards partnerships with brands, which is helping them.

The international market represents a real opportunity. They have experienced very good international growth . Now that they have become a trusted partner, can they increase that monthly figure of $92, and can they acquire a larger share?

I believe there is a straightforward way to do this, and although there are significant risks, continuing with the same approach should lead to growth over time.

Yes, and I think the opportunity here is too great to ignore. We are looking at revenues of about $3 billion currently, but if you look ahead in the pharmaceutical industry alone, not to mention doctor visits, insurance and so on, the market represents hundreds of billions of dollars in the United States alone.

As I mentioned, they are no longer just an American company , but are expanding internationally. Therefore, they try to do many things at once. I mean, they are trying to become a central hub for healthcare services.

This, in my opinion, is the ultimate situation they are striving to reach, and it simply means: when you have a valid question, they are the first application and the first place you turn to in search of an answer.

And if they already have your data from your watch or wearable device , what medications you take, what your scale says, and all that personal information they have. So you say, "Well, I haven't felt well these past few days," and you take your temperature, and maybe you'll get cold medicine after 6 hours .

This is somewhat like a nirvana phase for them from a business perspective. I mean, we're talking about revenues that could not only multiply 10 times , but 100 times, and that's the kind of opportunity we're looking for here.

So, when I look at the optimistic side of Hims&Hers, I see that they will become a partner to their customers rather than just a one-time solution . Therefore, it will be interesting to see if they are able to achieve that.

You know, I added a few specializations to them. You mentioned laboratories, and learning more about them was really interesting, but I see a lot of opportunities for what they could become in the future rather than what they are today, and that's just good information.

It's great to know that my biological age is slightly less than my real age. But, you know, what am I going to do with that ? How will I actually turn that into a slight improvement in my diet ? That's the next stage for them.

I really want to move to the pessimistic side, because I'm very optimistic about this company in general. But, I want to know what your pessimistic view is about the company in the long term if it doesn't work out as a good stock investment.

Okay, let's look at this on several levels . First, everything I just described could have come from an Amazon clinic presentation as well. Hims has an advantage here, but Amazon is Amazon, and for people who have competed with Amazon, things don't always go well for them.

They have a lot of data, different data, but they can easily add it to their system. There is a lot of competition here. I think we just need to acknowledge that. Secondly, there is what I call the Icarus problem, which is that they try to fly high enough and overshoot the limits, but not so high that they get burned.

They are trying to bring about radical change in a highly regulated industry, which requires walking a fine line. I think not under the current administration, but the compounding pharmacy business has somewhat succeeded through a loophole dating back to the era of the movie "It's a Wonderful Life," before pharmaceuticals became institutionalized, when there were

It is to their credit that they moved many of the processes internally to ensure quality, and I think this was a good move for them . But I think that this strange world they are living in now, I doubt the status quo will remain in the long run.

Finally, there is a question about what healthcare will look like in the long term, and what role insurance will play; The more they become your first destination, the more complicated things become, and sometimes they have to deal with pharmacies because you cannot set up a cheap solution.

If this growth continues, I think it's good business, but if they achieve ten or twenty times the growth, they will have to have a lot of conversations that they would prefer to avoid at the moment.

So, there is that tension and that resistance. As they expand and acquire a larger market share , they will look more and more like traditional players rather than game-changers, and that will be a very difficult world to deal with.

Yes, I think the challenge of drug formulation even 6 months ago, I would have said it was a bigger challenge than I expected, perhaps. As you know, it was somewhat of an exceptional event with GLP-1 drugs in particular.

But now that they are working with some of the biggest pharmaceutical companies , that is really a positive thing, and shows that they are maturing, even if only a little, as a company to be able to work with these companies.

As more of these pharmaceutical products emerge, look to the GLP-1 field as a great example. There are many products appearing, but who is standing up for consumers to lower prices and putting pressure on suppliers to reduce their prices?

I think Hims and Hers are really at the forefront of that . Therefore, I think this brings them some goodwill. This will lead to lower prices.

Well, now we have a company that has the economic incentive to bring these products to market and say, "Hey, you know what?" "If you're going to buy a peptide from us for $20, that's fine."

"We're happy to do that." "We're happy to describe it." "And we'll help track the effect that has on your health." I think it's a really interesting place to explore.

Therefore, there are many options available to Hims&Hers. But the danger is, I really think this is a very competitive field , and resistance from the traditional healthcare sector is likely to be very strong.

So, this regulatory challenge from one administration to the next is likely to be a big one, because, you know, something that you could make peptides about before, under the Biden administration, is now in a legally ambiguous area.

And now the Trump administration comes along , and some of those peptides are coming out of there. It's a strange situation to be in if you're trying to push the boundaries of health, even if you're trying to do things exactly the right way .

That said, investing is all about risk and reward, and I fully acknowledge that Hims & Hers is one of the highest-risk stocks out there today because everything can go wrong. There may be a lawsuit that could lead to the company's bankruptcy.

But given our current situation, the enterprise value-to-sales ratio is around 2.9, and the 5-year compound annual growth rate is 67.5 percent. As I mentioned, there has been some fluctuation in the figures over the past year, but the growth rate is expected to exceed 50% in the second half of this year.

Look, I think if you want to take a risk, I see it as more speculative than its current valuation suggests. Therefore, I don't think it's an obvious choice because of the valuation, but I think it's for buying within a well-diversified portfolio if you are aware of the risks and such .

I am probably more pessimistic about the subject of peptides than you are, purely for health reasons more than anything else. I really think it's a good candidate for a speculative investment portfolio.

Please just make sure you understand what you are buying.

Yes, I completely agree with that. This type of stock may increase in value 10 or 100 times. Things could go wrong , but if they go well, that's the kind of radical change I like as an investor, because you're looking at companies that could fix a system that's really broken.

Now, I can simply open my app, and open the "Hims" app. My wife has the " Hers" app. Perhaps we will have an app for children in the future, so when your child catches a cold, you may find some solutions.

That's what I'm talking about. Children diagnose themselves . Well, obviously children don't make diagnoses, but I would like to say, "Hello, I know this is an ear infection." I don't want to have to pay $150 to go to the doctor only to be told it's an ear infection.

These things are easy fruits to pick in our digital age.

However, things could get worse, but I think if this company continues to grow at a rate above 30%, which it has proven capable of, and the size of the industry is there, then this is an attractive price where you can count on revenue growth.

You can get some expansion in profit margins. Those margins are currently approaching zero. I expect this situation to continue, as their current focus is on growth rather than profits.

The company's value-to-sales ratio is 2.9 for a company growing at this rate, and we have seen companies growing at this rate traded at 100 times their sales. Therefore, I don't expect it to reach 100 times sales in the future, but expanding multiples is a big part of the investment.

Therefore, I believe there are many potential gains in the future.