Hims and Hers 具备强劲的长期增长潜力；在监管和解与产品组合扩张之后，公司指引 2026 年下半年营收增长 50%。
逐段跳播
说到那些还有大量增长空间的公司，Hims and Hers在2026年开局艰难，但2026年下半年，他们的指引是营收将增长50%。所以，如果我们看他们过去3年的复合年增长率，是54%，股票相当便宜。
企业价值与销售额之比约为2.8。这可能会大幅提升远期市盈率，达到81倍。对于Hims and Hers，我们目前还不关注盈利能力，但让我们看看过去一年左右发生了什么。
Speaking of companies that have a lot of growth runway ahead, Himson and Hers had a tough start to 2026, but the second half of 2026, their guidance is that they're going to grow revenue at 50%.
So, if we look at their component annual growth rate over the past 3 years, 54%, stocks pretty cheap. Enterprise value to sales about 2.8. That could significantly increase forward price earnings multiple 81.
We're not focused on profitability yet for his and hers, but let's look at what's happened over the past year or so.
再说一次，就像我们在Duolingo身上看到的那样，让我们用过去12个月的数据来看。就像我们在Duolingo身上看到的那样，你看到的是增长减速。2024年和2025年发生了什么，那时你可以配制GLP-1药物。
所以FDA对像Hims and Hers这样的公司有一项豁免，允许它们配制该产品。这带来了大量增长。然后在2025年和2026年初，他们遇到了一些增长挑战，因为他们无法配制那么多产品。
当他们确实尝试配制时，最终遇到了Novo Nordisk，后者在今年早些时候起诉了该公司，那时你就真正到了这个地步——如果我们看季度数据，第一季度的季度增长仅为3.8%。不是一个好季度，但情况已经反弹。
And again, like we see with Dolingo, let's do trailing 12-month numbers. Like we see with Dolingo, you're seeing deceleration of growth. What happened here in 2024 and 2025, this is when you could compound GLP1s.
So there's an exemption from the FDA for companies like Hims and Hers to be able to compound that product. That drove a ton of growth. And then in 2025 and early 2026 ran into some grow growth challenges as they couldn't compound as many products. when they did try to compound eventually ran into Nova Nordisk who sued the company earlier this year that's when you actually got to the point if we look at the quarterly numbers quarterly growth in the first quarter was just 3.8%. Not a good quarter, but things bounced back.
他们与Novo Nordisk达成了和解。你现在可以在Hims and Hers上买到Novo Nordisk的产品。你也可以在Hims and Hers上买到Eli Lilly的产品。
产品组合正在扩大。他们正在扩大对AI工具的使用。实验室业务已经到位。肽类产品很可能即将推出。管理层表示，今年下半年，尤其是在去年收购欧洲的Eucalyptus和Zava之后，公司今年下半年的营收将增长50%。
They settled with Nova Nordisk. You can now get Nova Nordisk's products on Hims and Hers. You can also get Eli Lilly's products in Hims and Hers. The product portfolio is expanding.
They're expanding their use of AI tools. Labs are here. Peptides are likely coming. Management has said in the second half of this year, especially after the acquisition of Eucalyptus and Zava in Europe last year, that the company is going to grow revenue 50% in the second half of this year.
所以我认为，这类公司有可能在10年甚至20年的时间里实现30%以上的营收复合增长。如果你看Hims and Hers，过去12个月的营收为26亿美元，而仅在美国，制药业务规模就约为4000亿美元。
记住，他们还在走向国际。他们还在增加通常属于保险公司和医生的那类价值。所以，如果放眼10到20年，这有可能成为一家万亿美元级别的企业。前方有大量的增长空间。
So I think this is the kind of company that could compound revenue 30 plus% over the course of 10 maybe even 20 years if you look at him and hers has $2.6 billion worth of revenue over the past 12 months and the pharmaceutical business alone is about $400 billion just in the US.
Now remember they're going international as well. They're also adding the kind of value that typically falls into insurance companies and doctors. So this is potentially a trillion dollar business if you look out 10 to 20 years. That's a lot of growth runway ahead.
观察点
这个频道对 $HIMS 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。