HIMS 是一只看涨但风险较高的长期持仓：它正在颠覆医疗健康行业，自2020年以来复合年增长率达60%，并预测2026年下半年营收同比增长50%，通常能超预期；与 Lilly/Novo 的合作使其趋于稳定。其 AI/数据平台有望成为医疗健康领域的核心数据仓库。按3倍市销率估值，忽略了盈利能力，计划持有至2030年。
逐段跳播
好，我们接着聊聊风险稍高一些的公司。我们可能把Mercado Libre放在了风险较高的一边，但它大概和Hems & Hers相当，后者是我想聊的第三只股票。
Okay, let's move on to talking about slightly more risky companies. We may have put Mercado Libre on the riskier side, but it 's probably on par with Hems & Hers, which is the third stock I wanted to talk about.
Hems & Hers是正在以多种方式革新医疗健康的公司之一。它让获取服务变得容易得多，因为你通过互联网或应用程序获取服务，与医生沟通，而不是真的去他的诊所、提供保险信息，然后去药房。
如果你像我们一样有孩子，这极其烦人，不是吗？尤其是对于普通的小毛病。所以，他们目前还没有覆盖所有科室，但想想他们10年后的位置，届时他们会从今天的五六个科室，扩展到也许覆盖大部分经常需要的需求。
Hems & Hers is one of the companies that is revolutionizing healthcare in many different ways. It makes accessing services really easier because you access them via the internet or an app, and you communicate with the doctor instead of actually going to his clinic, providing your insurance, and then going to the pharmacy.
If you have children like us, it's extremely annoying, isn't it? Especially for ordinary things. So, they don't cover all disciplines right now, but think about their position 10 years from now, when they will move from five or six disciplines today to perhaps most of the needs that are constantly required.
但看看这里的数字，因为我认为这显示了他们在市场上的势头有多强。自2020年以来60%的复合年增长率。这实际上是“他们在2026年下半年的增长率”，在经历了GLP-1药物带来的一些波动之后——我们在频道其他视频中覆盖过——但他们现在从2026年第二季度起处于稳定得多的位置，因为他们与大型公司建立了合作，尤其是Eli Lilly和Novo Nordisk。
But just look at the numbers here, because I think this shows how much momentum they have in the market. A compound annual growth rate of 60% since 2020. This is actually "their growth rate in the second half of 2026," after some fluctuations due to GLP-1 drugs which we have covered in other videos on the channel, but they are now in a much more stable position starting from the second quarter of 2026, as they have partnerships with major companies, such as Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk in particular.
因此，从持续增长的角度看，他们的处境比当初乘着GLP-1药物浪潮时好得多，而他们对今年下半年收入的增长预测是同比增长50%。顺便说一句，他们通常会超出预期。因此，你可以预期在此基础上还有显著增长。
Therefore, they are in a much better position than they were when they were riding the GLP-1 drug wave from a sustained growth perspective , and their revenue growth forecast for the second half of this year is 50% year-over-year .
By the way, they usually exceed expectations. Therefore, you can expect significant growth on top of that.
他们思考人工智能的方式也是我觉得非常引人注目的，在医疗健康领域，部分原因是我一直在想，谁会推动人工智能向前发展？我可以去哪里找到问题的答案？无论是我正在处理的事情、一直萦绕在我脑海里的问题，还是想稍微改善一下饮食的愿望。
那个中心信息库会位于哪里？会是现在的医生吗？大概不会。会是通过你目前与保险公司的关系吗？大概不会。是CVS吗？Walgreens还是什么？绝对不是。那么，像Hims&Hers这样能收集这些数据的公司呢，因为我戴着Garmin手表。
我有Garmin体重秤。你知道，他们至少知道我们家里使用的一些药物。我认为它成为你医疗健康问题、答案和解决方案的中心信息库，是一个非常有说服力的理由，因为他们会把人们与药物连接起来，有些是处方药，有些是非处方药。
因此，我相信未来十年Hims&Hers有很多积极因素。
Their way of thinking about artificial intelligence is also something I find really compelling, and part of the reason in healthcare is that I'm always wondering, who is going to drive things forward with artificial intelligence?
Where can I go to find an answer to a question? Whether it's something I'm dealing with, a question that's been on my mind, or a desire to improve my diet a little. Where will that central information repository be located?
Will there be a current doctor? Probably not. Will it be through your current relationship with the insurance company? Probably not. Is it CVS? Walgreens or what? Absolutely not.
So, what about a company like Hims&Hers that can collect this data, since I wear a Garmin watch? I have a Garmin scale. You know, they know at least some of the medications we use in our home.
I think it's a very compelling case to be a central repository for your healthcare questions, answers, and solutions , because they will connect people to medications, some prescription and some non-prescription.
Therefore, I believe there are many positive factors for Hims&Hers over the next decade.
这是一家去年营收约26亿美元的企业。仅美国处方药市场的规模就约为4000亿美元。这是一个非常庞大、值得去争取的市场。
This is a business that generated approximately $2.6 billion in revenue last year. The size of the prescription drug market alone in the United States is approximately $400 billion. dollar. A very large market that is worth pursuing.
我没有去研究Hims&Hers，仅仅是因为我对这个领域不太感兴趣。我对这个领域不感兴趣的原因是，我在这方面的信息和经验都不多，因此我觉得它并不能给我带来作为投资者的优势。所以总的来说，我会避开市场上这整个板块。
不过，当一家公司像Hims&Hers这样实现增长时，很难长期忽视它，因为我认为，当一家企业以极高的速度扩张时，我们往往会低估它能够增量增长多少。
Hims&Hers wasn't a company I looked into simply because I'm not very interested in that field . The reason I am not interested in this field is that I do not have much information or experience in it, and therefore I do not feel that it gives me an advantage as an investor.
So, in general, I stay away from this entire sector of the market. However, when a company achieves growth like Hims&Hers does, it's very difficult to ignore for long, because it's one of those things where I think we underestimate how much a business can grow incrementally when it expands at a very high rate .
是的，而且你拥有我们之前谈到的那些聚合效应，这是像Amazon和Netflix这类公司的优势所在——一旦用户开始涌向你的平台，这就成了你的优势。
Yes, and you have some of the aggregation effects we talked about as a strength for companies like Amazon and Netflix, where once users start coming to your platform, that becomes your strength.
突然之间，为什么Novo Nordisk今年早些时候会和他们达成交易？他们本可以在未来五年里在法庭上把Hims&Hers拖到精疲力竭，以解决这场专利诉讼，或者他们本可以说：“嘿，你其实是一个很大的分销商。
你今天有300万客户。十年后你大概率会有1000万到2000万客户。也许我们愿意与你合作，让你成为我们的分销渠道，只要条款对我们双方都合适。”而这正是他们最终做出的决定。
Suddenly, why did Novo Nordisk make a deal with them earlier this year? They could have perhaps exhausted Hims&Hers in court over the next five years to resolve this patent lawsuit, or they could have said, "Hey, you're actually a big distributor."
You have 3 million customers today. You will probably have , you know, 10 to 20 million customers 10 years from now. Perhaps we'd like to partner with you to be our distribution channel, as long as the terms are right for both of us. And that's the decision they ultimately made.
但在数字时代，这个汇集中心的价值极其巨大，因为你现在可以在已有基础上继续发展，并向全球扩张。我的意思是，他们今年早些时候收购了一家澳大利亚公司Eucalyptus。他们还收购了Zava，这让他们得以进入欧洲市场。所以他们正在开始建立那种全球布局。
But this collection center is incredibly valuable in the digital age because you can now build on what you have today and expand globally. I mean, they bought an Australian company, Eucalyptus, earlier this year.
And they bought Zava, which gave them access to the European market. So they're starting to build that global presence.
一旦你拥有了他们今天这些工具——把你和医生连接起来给你开处方，再加上AI工具来回答你的问题——我认为这一切都会变得可扩展得多。这将与旧模式截然不同，在旧模式里，市场中的权力在于说：“我是医生，我能开处方，你知道，去拿处方吧。”
是的，还要应付你的保险公司和药房。他们实际上正在打破这一切，因为他们根本不接受保险。所以你付现金，而现在公司也必须在价格上竞争。那么，如果你从医生那里拿到这张处方，它要花多少钱？
你根本不知道。医生在开处方时也不知道。而对Hims & Hers来说，价格将是公开透明的。我认为从长远来看，这种透明度将成为一个真正的差异化因素，也是一个市场颠覆者。
Well , once you have these tools they have today to connect you with a doctor to give you a prescription, plus AI tools to answer your questions, I think all of this will be much more scalable .
It'll be very different from the old model where the power in the market was in saying, "I'm a doctor ." I can write a prescription, you know, get a prescription." Yes , deal with your insurance company and your pharmacy.
They're actually breaking all that because they don't accept insurance in the first place. So you pay cash, and now companies will have to compete on price as well. So, what would that prescription cost if you got it from a doctor?
You have no idea. And the doctor has no idea when writing the prescription. For Hims & Hers, the price will be public and transparent. I think in the long run , that kind of transparency will be a real differentiator and a market disruptor.
因为如果你想想GLP-1药物这类东西，当然，如今Ozempic和Eli Lilly吸引了所有关注，但还有几十种类似的药物即将上市。我认为十年后，价格还会再下降90%。过去几年里它已经下降了约90%。
而像Hims & Hers这样的公司正引领着这一趋势。这正是我想参与其中的那种根本性变革。
Because if you think about something like GLP-1 drugs, of course, Ozempic and Eli Lilly get all the attention today, but there are dozens of similar drugs coming to market. I think 10 years from now, the price will be down another 90%.
It's already down about 90% over the last few years. And companies like Hims & Hers are leading that. That's the kind of radical change I want to be a part of.
所以，我喜欢他们现在的处境，估值是销售额的三倍。不要看他们的盈利能力，因为在这个增长阶段，你不想……当增长开始放缓时，你才可以提高盈利能力，但他们不会长期这么做。所以，Hims and Hers，一定要把它留在你的关注列表上。我打算持有我的股票到2030年。
So, I like where they are now, being valued at three times their sales. Don't look at their profitability because At this stage of growth, you don't want When growth starts to slow, you can then increase profitability, but they won't do that for long.
So, Hims and Hers, make sure you keep it on your watchlist. I plan to hold my shares until 2030.
这个频道对 $HIMS 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。