$HIMS · Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium · 2026-11-02
HIMS 被严重低估:它在美国庞大的医药市场中占据领先地位,已观察到的销售份额达 51%,正在拓展产品线并推进国际化,其肽类业务到 2027 年底可能突破十亿美元。营收约 26 亿美元,管理层指引 2026 年下半年年增长 50%,肽类业务有望在几年内将营收推升至 50–60 亿美元;目前市销率接近 1 倍,这样的增长理应获得更高倍数。风险在于管理层战线拉得过宽,不过他仍支持这支团队。
逐段跳播
在我看来,对投资者来说拥有巨大机会的公司之一就是 Hims & Hers。这家公司正试图彻底改变世界上最大的行业之一,也就是医疗行业和制药行业。
In my opinion, one of the companies that has huge opportunities for investors is Hims& Hers. This company is trying to radically change one of the largest industries in the world, namely the medical industry and the pharmaceutical industry.
仅在美国,制药行业的规模就约为4000亿美元。从我现在看到的情况来看,HimsandHers 的市值只有约64亿美元。这家公司的价值在未来10年或20年里,可能不只是增长10倍,而是有可能增长100倍。
The pharmaceutical industry is worth about $400 billion in the United States alone. From what I see now, HimsandHers has a market capitalization of only about $6.4 billion. This is a company whose value could increase not just 10 times, but potentially 100 times in the next 10 or 20 years.
所以,我想分享五个理由,说明我为什么现在看好 HimsandHers。我其实想先从 HimsandHers 最近的一些新闻说起,因为关于这家公司的国际增长、即将上市的新产品以及肽类产品,已经有大量讨论。
是的,肽类产品终于来了,而且我们对这项业务会是什么样子已经有了一些了解。
So, I want to share five reasons why I love HimsandHers right now. I actually want to start with some recent news about HimsandHers, because there has been a lot of discussion about the company's growth internationally, what new products are coming to the market, and peptides.
Yes , peptides have finally arrived, and we have an idea of what this business will be like.
我会在每月的第一个交易日为这个非对称投资组合买入股票,随着时间推移逐步构建这个组合,并向你展示我在买入 Hims&Hers 这类非对称股票时具体是怎么做的,并解释这些买入背后的理由。
I buy stocks for that asymmetric portfolio on the first trading day of the month , build that portfolio over time , and show you exactly what I do when buying asymmetric stocks like Hims&Hers and explain the reasoning behind those purchases.
你可以看到,股价在过去一年里下跌了38%。这确实令人难以置信。而且尽管上个月有那么多新闻,股价实际上还是下跌了8.2%。所以,关于 Hims&Hers 有很多利好消息,但市场似乎并不太在意。
You can see that the stock price has fallen 38% in the past year. Which is truly incredible. And despite all the news last month, the stock price actually fell 8.2%. So, there's a lot of positive news coming out about Hims&Hers, but the market doesn't seem to care much about it.
现在,他们的财报也要来了。Fiscal AI 最棒的地方在于,财报一发布,你就能拿到关于财报的所有信息。所以,你可以用自己的数据做出所有这些图表。这些信息都是他们自己收集的。因此,财报发布后几乎立刻就能获得所有这些信息。
然后我通常会去这个标签页。上面写着“View Transcripts”,但它不仅包含文字记录,还包含报告,而且重要的是,还有幻灯片。幻灯片会让你深入了解 Hims&Hers 正在发生什么。
Now, their income report is also coming. And the best part of Fiscal AI is that you get all the information about the income report as soon as it comes out. So , you can create all these charts with your own data.
They collect all this information themselves. So, all this information is available almost immediately after the earnings report is released. And then I usually go to this tab.
It says 'View Transcripts', but it contains not only the transcript, but also the report and, importantly, the slides. The slides will give you a lot of insight into what's happening at Hims&Hers.
所以,当财报季正在进行、股票像现在这样反复震荡时,这就是你最好的去处。这是获取信息的最佳去处。如果你想亲自试一试,可以访问 fiscal.ai/asym,免费试用一周。然后通过那个链接你还能获得15%的折扣。
现在,我先从今天的一些新闻说起,然后我们再谈我为什么现在看好 Hims&Hers 股票的五个理由。
So, when earnings season is underway and stocks are fluctuating like it is now , this is the best place for you to go. This is the best place to get information. If you want to try it out for yourself , go to fiscal.ai/asym and try it out for free for a week.
Then you will get a 15% discount through that link. Now, I'll start with some news today and then we'll talk about the five reasons why I like Hims&Hers stock right now.
第一条新闻是上周发布的。今天是10月21日。对投资者来说,这感觉像是一年前的事,但它就发生在上一周。Hims&Hers 正在拓展睾酮业务。我们还得到了一些关于这款产品价格的信息。
实际上,这会和 GLP-1 的运作方式类似。你会购买睾酮套餐的会员,然后就有机会使用这些不同的治疗方案。会员费是每月50美元,然后你就能获得注射型 TRT(睾酮替代疗法)、Testosterone RX,每月50美元,口服 TRT 每月179美元。
还有一种仿制药选项,每月159美元。所以有几种不同的选择。但这只是 Hims&Hers 产品数量增长的一部分。
The first news was published last week. Today is October 21st. To an investor, this may seem like a year ago, but it happened just last week. Hims&Hers is expanding into the testosterone business.
We also got some information about what the price of this product will be. Now, this would actually be similar to how GLP-1 works. You will take a membership for the testosterone package and then you will have the opportunity to use these different treatments.
So, the membership costs $50 a month and then you get access to injectable TRT ( Testosterone Replacement Therapy), Testosterone RX, $50 a month, Oral TRT, $179 a month. There is also a generic option for $159 per month.
So, there are several different options. But, this is just part of the growth in the number of products at Hims&Hers.
说到扩张,公司还宣布了在德国拓展业务。这是他们过去一年左右一直在推进的更大规模国际扩张的一部分。也就是说,他们的业务正在向欧洲不同地区扩展。他们还把业务扩展到了加拿大和澳大利亚。
它现在正在成为一个全球品牌,而这正是 Hims & Hers 与许多竞争对手的不同之处。这是一个风险因素,因为管理层现在肩负的责任大得多,但这也大大增加了盈利潜力。
Speaking of expansion, the company has also announced the expansion of their business in Germany. This is part of a larger international expansion they have been embarking on over the past year or so.
That is, their business is expanding to different parts of Europe. They have also expanded their business to Canada and Australia. It is now becoming a global brand and this is what sets Hims& Hers apart from many of its competitors.
This is a risk factor, as management now has a lot more responsibility , but it also greatly increases the potential for profit.
然后是本周的大新闻。有趣的是,市场似乎并不太关心肽类产品。不过,我们了解到,现在可以从复合药房获得肽类产品。还有一些监管规定需要理清,但看起来公司可以凭处方销售这些产品,比如 Hims&Hers 自己的复合制剂设施。
所以,这些就是他们将要推向市场的产品类型。例如 Morelan,你可能听说过 TB-500。而我认为最受关注的会是 BPC-157,就在这个列表的右下角。现在,也许让 Hims & Hers 在这方面比其他人更独特的是,他们不会是最先行动者,但他们会是先行者。
这是 Andrew Dudham,他本周表示,HASS 已发布了一份临时政策草案,开放 BPC-157 和 TB-500 这类产品。Hims and Hers 为此已经准备了好几年。
他们几年前收购了一家肽类生产设施。现在,这是最重要的一点。他们表示将能够提供从头到尾100%美国制造的肽类产品。希望他们真的会强调这一点,因为大多数竞争对手可能无法提供这一优势。
And then there's this week's big news. Interestingly , the market does n't seem to be too concerned about peptides. However, we have learned that peptides can now be obtained from compounders.
There are still some regulations to be worked out, but it seems like companies will be able to sell them with prescriptions, like Hims&Hers ' own compounding facility. So, these are the types of products they are going to bring to the market.
For example, Morelan, you may have heard of TB-500. And I think the one that will attract the most attention is BPC-157, at the bottom right of this list. Now, what perhaps makes Hims & Hers more unique than everyone else in this regard is that they won't be the first movers, but they will be the pioneers.
And this is Andrew Dudham, who said this week that HASS has issued a draft interim policy to open up products like BPC-157 and TB- 500. Hims and Hers had been preparing for this for several years.
They purchased a peptide production facility a few years ago. Now, this is the biggest thing. They said they will be able to provide peptides that are 100% made in the USA from start to finish.
Hopefully, they will really emphasize this, because most competitors probably won't be able to offer this benefit.
那么,这样一款产品有哪些潜在好处呢?这是一种超能力。在这个案例中,它是另一个竞争对手,提供许多与 Hims & Hers 类似的产品,尤其是通过他们的 Labs 产品。不过,他们已经推出了自己的肽类产品,也公布了一些定价信息。
所以,我们看到 BPC-157 每月150美元,TB-500 每月150美元,MOTS-c 每月200美元。我认为,随着肽类市场竞争加剧,我们将会看到的价格大概率正处于峰值。但这能让你对潜在的收入机会有个概念。
假设 Hims & Hers 有一个使用肽类产品的50美元会员。然后再假设这些价格略低一些。那么,假设 BPC-157 的价格是每月100美元,但如果再加上50美元的会员费,他们的总收入就达到150美元。
现在,根据各种估计,仅在美国就有超过一百万人已经在从那个灰色市场使用某种肽类产品。这些是非 GLP-1 肽类。所以,假设到明年年底,Hims and Hers 能获得10万名订阅用户,他们愿意为肽类产品支付这么多钱,甚至更多。
那样的话,你考虑的就是一项1.8亿美元的业务。如果把这个数字扩大到100万订阅用户,突然间你看到的就是一项18亿美元的业务。这有可能成为一项巨大的业务。所以,这将在未来12个月左右把 Hims & Hers 提升到一个新的水平。
Now, what are the potential benefits of such a product ? This is a superpower. In this case, it is another competitor, who offers many similar products to Hims & Hers , especially through their Labs products.
However, they have launched their peptides and have also released some pricing information. So, we're looking at $150 per month for BPC-157, $150 per month for TB-500, and $200 per month for MOTS-c.
I think the price we will see as competition in the peptide market increases is probably at its peak. But , it gives you an idea of the potential income opportunities. Let's say Hims & Hers has a $50 membership for using peptides.
And then let's say these prices are a little lower. So, let's say the price of BPC-157 is $100 per month, but if you add a $50 membership to that, their total income comes to $150.
Now, according to various estimates, there are over a million people in America alone who are already using some type of peptide from that gray market. These are non-GLP-1 peptides.
So , let's say that by the end of next year, Hims and Hers can get 100,000 subscribers, who will pay that much for the peptide, or even much more. In that case, you are thinking about a $180 million business.
If you take that number to one million subscribers, suddenly you're looking at a $1.8 billion business. This could potentially be a huge business. So, this is something that will take Hims & Hers to the next level in the next 12 months or so.
现在,这些只是过去几周的新闻。正如我所说,股市对 Hims&Hers 的许多新闻并没有积极反应,甚至可以说基本没有反应。股价下跌的大部分实际上与市场有关,与 Hims&Hers 关系不大。
但他们在11月初有一个电话会议。只有到那时我们才会知道第三季度的业绩。所以,如果业绩是正面的,并且这些成为未来增长的催化剂,那么从长远来看,这可能成为公司的一大推动力。
Now, these are just the news from the last few weeks. As I said, the stock market didn't respond positively, if at all, to much of the Hims&Hers news. Most of the stock price decline is actually market-related, and has little to do with Hims&Hers.
But they have a conference call in early November. Only then will we know the results of the third quarter. So, if they are positive and these become the catalysts for future growth , then this could be a big driver for the company in the long run.
好,现在来说说我喜欢 Hims&Hers 的五点,其中一些我已经暗示过了。每当我研究一只股票时,我都会寻找不同的东西。公司有没有可以扩张的大市场?也就是说,他们是否在一个很小的市场里把自己打造成一家突破性的公司?
也许我根本不太在意那样的公司。但他们是否在一个潜力巨大、有机会创造数千亿美元收入的市场里,把自己打造成一家突破性的公司?这才是我真正感兴趣的。所以,单看制药市场的规模,我们不是直接看就诊量之类的东西。
根据 Grand View Research 的数据,仅美国的制药市场到2024年就将达到6340亿美元。这方面的估算时常变化,但大致在4000亿到8000亿美元之间。无论怎么看,这都是一门巨大的生意。
我最喜欢 HimsandHers 的一点,就是他们瞄准的是一个真正巨大的市场。即使他们在我们现在所说的远程医疗领域只排到第二或第三,仅这一点就可能是一门巨大的生意,比今天60亿美元的规模大得多。
所以我希望我持有的每一只股票都具备这个特征。他们是否正在成为一门大生意,并且是否正在那门生意中带来突破性的变革?HimsandHers 充分具备这一品质。
Okay, now let's talk about the five things about Hims&Hers that I like, and I've hinted at some of them. Now, whenever I look at a stock , I look for different things. Are there any major markets where the company could expand?
I mean, are they establishing themselves as a breakthrough company in a very small market ? Maybe I don't care much about that company. But are they establishing themselves as a breakthrough company in a market with huge potential , with the opportunity to generate hundreds of billions of dollars in revenue?
That's my real interest. So just looking at the size of the pharmaceuticals market, we're not looking directly at doctor visits or things like that. According to Grand View Research, the pharmaceuticals market in the United States alone will be worth $634 billion by 2024.
Estimates on this matter vary from time to time , but it is between $400 and $800 billion. No matter how you look at it , it's a huge business. One of the things I like most about HimsandHers is that they are targeting a market that is truly huge.
If they even come in second or third place in what we now call telehealth, that alone could be a huge business , much bigger than the $6 billion business it is today. So I want to see this feature in every stock I own.
Are they becoming a big business and are they bringing about a groundbreaking change in that business? This quality is abundant in HimsandHers.
不过,光有一门巨大的生意还不够。你必须成为赢家之一。我提到过,在这种情况下有可能排第一、第二,甚至第三。你不会想排第四、第五或第六。比如,你不会想成为社交媒体里的 Snap。你会想成为 Meta。
你会想成为流媒体里的 Netflix。你会想成为领导者之一。而目前,根据我们掌握的所有信息,Hims and Hers 拥有最大的市场份额。根据他们最新季报中公布的数据,到2025年,他们将占据观察到的总销售额的51%和观察到的总客户数的48.5%。
Now, just having a huge business is not enough. You have to be one of the winners. I mentioned the possibility of being first, second, or even third in this case. You don't want to be fourth, fifth, or sixth.
You do n't want to be like Snap, for example, on social media. You will want to be Meta. You want to be the Netflix of streaming. You will want to be one of the leaders. And right now, according to all the information we have , Hims and Hers has the largest market share.
According to data published in their latest quarterly report, they will hold a market share of 51% of total observed sales and 48.5% of total observed customers by 2025.
所以,他们正在扩张进入一个巨大的市场,而我很喜欢他们目前处于市场顶端这一点。即使是在最坏的情况下,他们也会排在第二,但他们绝对是在争夺第一或第二的位置。不过,眼下他们绝对是在争夺第一的位置。
So, they are expanding into a huge market and I love that they are currently at the top of the market. Even in the worst case scenario, they would be in second place, but are definitely fighting for first or second place.
However, right now they are definitely fighting for the number one spot.
第三点不错的地方,是 Hims and Hers 专项服务数量的扩张。回想 Hims and Hers 的起步阶段,他们最初是向人们提供 ED 药物,也就是急诊科药物。这就像是从一个略有不同的角度切入一个成熟的行业。
你不会直接说:“嘿,我们要直接进入减肥业务”,那是一门巨大的生意。你做的是一款有仿制药可用的产品,在那里满足客户的需求。比如,去看医生并说“我可能需要 ED 治疗”是相当不舒服的。
现在,你还需要去药剂师那里。而这一切都可以通过 Hims and Hers 在网上完成。这是一个相当有意思的选择。但之后,他们可以把业务扩展到皮肤病、心理健康、激素健康和减肥等领域。
你在这里可以看到所有这些。所以,这一切都是现成可用的。再加上用于激素健康的 TRT。我们会看到它在未来继续扩张。所以,当你能扩展产品范围时,你就能触达市场上更多的人。更多的人会在平台上花更多的钱。
所有这些都是业务的驱动力。所以,我真的很高兴他们能够为客户提供越来越多的东西。
The third thing that is nice is the expansion in the number of specialized services of Hims and Hers. If you think about the beginnings of Hims and Hers , they started by providing people with ED Meds or emergency department medications.
It's like attacking an established industry from a slightly different perspective. You do n't go straight and say, "Hey, we're going to go straight into the weight loss business," which is a huge business.
You are working on a product where generic drugs are available, where you are meeting the needs of customers. For example, it's quite uncomfortable to go to the doctor and say, "I might need ED treatment."
Now, you also need to go to the pharmacist. All of this can be done online through Hims and Hers. This is a quite interesting option. But, they can then expand their business to areas such as skin diseases, mental health, hormonal health, and weight loss.
You can see all of this here. So, all of this is readily available. Add TRT to this for hormonal health. We will see its expansion continue in the future. So, when you can expand your product range , you can reach more people in the market.
More people will spend more money on the platform. All of these are the driving forces of business. So, I'm really happy that they're able to provide more and more things for customers.
第四,他们正在越来越多的地方开展业务。比如,我前面提到过,他们已经把业务扩展到了德国。所以,他们在西欧市场的潜在客户群是2亿,北美是8000万,澳大利亚是2000万(他们今年早些时候在那里收购了 Eucalyptus),日本是1亿。
这种国际扩张帮助他们把从各个市场获得的所有知识利用起来,并传播到全世界。这就是我喜欢在一家企业身上看到的那种运营上的便利。这也让潜在客户市场大得多。如果你在美国是主导者,你也可以扩展到其他地区。
其中的一个关键是他们使用同一个品牌。他们收购像 Eucalyptus 这样的公司,然后更换品牌。所以,尤其是在澳大利亚,Eucalyptus 这个品牌现在已经变成了 Hims 品牌。
所以,我对他们的国际扩张真的很满意。正如我所说,这其中存在风险,因为管理层必须同时兼顾很多事情,但我认为他们有一支合适的团队在做这件事,这大大提高了它变好的可能性。
And fourth, they are doing it in more and more places. For example, I mentioned earlier that they have expanded their business into Germany. So, their potential customer base in the Western European market is 200 million, in North America 80 million, in Australia 20 million (where they bought Eucalyptus earlier this year) and in Japan 100 million.
This international expansion helps them leverage all the knowledge they have gained from each individual market and spread it around the world. This is the kind of operational convenience I love to see in a business.
This also makes the potential customer market much larger. If you are a dominant player in the US, you can expand to other regions as well. One of the keys to this is that they are using the same brand.
They are acquiring some companies like Eucalyptus and then changing the branding. So, especially in Australia, the Eucalyptus brand has now become the Hims brand. So, I'm really happy about their international expansion.
As I said, there are risks involved, because management has to juggle a lot of things at once, but I think they are doing it with the right team and that makes the chances of it improving a lot higher.
最后,第五点,是一款尚未上市的产品,属于 Hims & Hers,那就是肽类。我认为这对 Hims & Hers 来说将是一门巨大的生意,而且在我看来,他们是最适合做这件事的公司,因为这是你通常不会去找私人医生处理的东西。
他们在肽类方面没有专业知识。他们不知道如何为你搭建一个组合,但像 Hims & Hers 这样的公司可以做实验室检测,生成那些信息。他们有 AI 工具,可以接收任何进来的信息,然后说:“你知道吗?
根据你的化验报告,这是你可以实现健康目标的方式。”我认为这将是一个巨大的创新领域,也是 Hims & Hers 能够大幅提升的一个领域。我前面提到过,到2027年底这可能成为一门价值超过10亿美元的生意。
我不认为这是一个不切实际的想法。而如果真是这样,那么 Hims&Hers 就被严重低估了。
And finally, number five, a product that has not yet hit the market for Hims & Hers , and that is peptides. I think this will be a huge business for Hims & Hers and in my opinion, they are the best company for this, because this is something you wouldn't normally go to your personal doctor for.
They will have no expertise in peptides. They won't know how to build a stack for you , but a company like Hims & Hers can do the lab work, generate that information. They have AI tools that can take any information as it comes in and say, "You know what ?
Based on your lab report , this is how you can achieve your health goals. " I think this is going to be a huge area of inovation and an area where Hims & Hers will be able to improve tremendously.
I mentioned earlier that this could become a business worth over a billion dollars by the end of 2027. I don't think it's an unrealistic idea. And if that's the case, then Hims&Hers is incredibly undervalued.
目前,公司收入约为26亿美元,而根据他们自己的指引,管理层预计2026年下半年收入将以50%的年率增长。所以,我们会看到这部分收入继续增长。其中一部分来自收购,但一部分是自然增长以及他们所获得的势头,尤其是在 GLP-1 领域。
如果你开始把肽类之类的东西加进去,你的收入在未来几年可能达到50亿美元,也许60亿美元。现在你正处于市销率接近1的水平。而如果你达到这样的销售数字,你的增长率将接近这个50%的速率。这样的增长率理应获得高得多的倍数。
Currently, the company has revenue of approximately $2.6 billion, and based on their own guidance, management expects revenue to grow at a 50% annual rate in the second half of 2026.
So , we will see that this revenue will continue to grow. Some of that is due to acquisitions, but some of it is natural growth and the momentum they've gained, particularly in the GLP-1 area.
If you start adding things like peptides to it, your revenue could potentially reach $5 billion, maybe $6 billion in the next few years. Now you are at a point where your price-to-sales ratio is approaching one.
And if you reach these kinds of sales numbers , your growth rate will be close to this 50% rate. This growth rate deserves to be multiplied much more.
所以,当你把所有这些加在一起,比如 HimsandHers 进入一个巨大的市场、不断增加更多专项产品、走向国际、是第一大竞争者,而现在肽类又要上市,我认为 HimsandHers 有很多值得喜欢的地方。
在我看来,这只股票看起来被严重低估了。11月9日财报发布后,我们会看到情况如何发展。我会回到 YouTube 上讨论这件事。我也一定会在 Asymmetric Investing 通讯里讨论。
所以,如果你想从我这里了解更多,包括我买了哪些股票,可以去看看。正如我所说,这些内容将于周一向 Premium 订阅者发布。
So, when you add all these things together , like HimsandHers entering a huge market, they're adding more specialized products, they're going international, they're the number one competitor, and now peptides are coming to the market, I think there's a lot to like about HimsandHers.
In my opinion, the stock looks highly undervalued. We'll see how the situation plays out when the earnings report is released on November 9th. I will come back to discuss this on YouTube.
I will definitely discuss this in the Asymmetric Investing newsletter as well. So, if you want to know more from me, including the shares I bought, you can check it out. As I said, they will be released for Premium subscribers on Monday.
观察点
这个频道对 $HIMS 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。