$HOG · Rich Habits · 2026-11-06
哈雷戴维森的转型看起来是真实的——北美零售销量连续四个季度增长，今年全球销量增长4%，股价自1月以来上涨超过60%，得益于1.99%的融资利率、返利和更便宜的车型，今年目标为135,500至139,000辆——不过销量仍只是2006年344,000辆峰值的一小部分，骑手老龄化问题在长期内并未明确解决。
逐段跳播
这就是我第一条的头条新闻：人们不再买船和房车，但 Harley-Davidson 除外。Harley-Davidson 在北美已连续四个季度实现零售销售同比增长，并有望实现自2021年以来首次全年销售增长，尽管高利率和油价压垮了休闲类别中其他房车和船只的销售。
今年全球销售额增长了4%，股价自1月以来已上涨超过60%。
And that is the headline for my first one is people stop buying boats and RVs, but not Harley-Davidson's. Um, Harley-Davidson has posted a year-over-year retail sales growth in North America for four straight quarters and is on track for its first fullyear sales increase since 2021, even as high interest rates and gas prices have crushed sales of RVs and boats across the rest of the leisure category.
Global sales are up 4% this year and the stock has climbed more than 60% since January.
这一转机源于新产品更新：面向年长骑手的更大马力三轮摩托车，加上两款新的中端摩托车 Superglide 和 Deadwood，并搭配融资方案。这对大家理解 Harley 为何出现这种情况很重要。
他们目前提供低至1.99%的融资，并配合经销商所说的回扣，将更便宜的摩托车推向更大的购买群体。
And this turnaround traces to new product uh refresh three- wheeled trikes with more horsepower aimed at the older riders, plus two new mid-tier bikes, the Superglide and the Deadwood paired with financing.
And this is something important for everyone to understand why this is happening with Harley. They have financing right now as low as 1.99% accompanied with rebates that dealers say push cheaper bikes into a much larger buying pool.
Harley-Davidson 的 CEO 正着力于明年的产品线，以进一步扩大客户群。这让我有点惊讶。他们推出了 Sprint 440，这是 Harley 有史以来最小的车型，售价低于6,000美元，Austin，还有一款存在已久的 Revive Sportster 883，售价约10,000美元。
所以，你有特殊融资、更低价格、更便宜的车型，而 Harley 预计今年全球将售出135,500至139,000辆摩托车。
And Harley-Davidson CEO is leaning into next year's lineup to widen the funnel further. And this surprised me a little bit. They're introducing the Sprint 440, Harley's smallest ever model under $6,000, Austin, and a Revive Sportster 883 that's been around forever at around $10,000.
So, you've got special financing, lower prices, less expensive models, and Harley expects to sell 135,500 to 139,000 bikes this year worldwide.
但这只是其2006年峰值时售出344,000辆摩托车的一小部分，而且 Hardyman 仍不完全确信该品牌已长期解决其骑手老龄化问题。
But it is a fraction of the 344,000 bikes it sold at its 2006 peak, and Hardyman still isn't fully convinced the brand has solved its aging rider program long-term.
我喜欢那条，Austin。我认为这非常重要，因为它让我们对老年经济有了一点脉搏。你和我讨论过，大多数购买 Harley 的人都在50岁及以上。所以这给了我们一点洞察。
I like that one, Austin. I think it's very important because it gives us a little bit of a pulse on the older economy because you and I discussed that most of the people buying Harleys are 50 and above. So that gives us a little insight into that.
分析得太好了，Robert。我觉得 Harley-Davidson 这个例子恰恰说明，只要在人们的预算范围内，他们是愿意买玩具的，看到1.99%的利率，对吧？这比二手车12%的利率，或者新车9%或10%的利率，更容易纳入预算。
人们想挥霍一下，想要漂亮的新东西，也愿意把钱投到贬值资产上并为它们融资，但前提是利率和月供得合理，否则他们就会说，这个不行，凑不齐，就像我们在 Ford 和其他一些大公司身上看到的那样，它们都在说，我们得把这些车卖出去。
What a great breakdown, Robert. I think the Harley-Davidson one just goes to show that people are willing to buy toys if it fits in their budget and seeing a 1.99% interest rate, right?
Makes it easier to fit in a budget versus a 12% interest rate for a used car or, you know, 9 or 10% interest rate for a new car. Like if people can like people want to splurge, they want to have nice new things and they're willing to to put money in depreciating assets and finance them, but they're only willing to do it if the interest rates and the payments make sense versus saying, you know what, can't do this.
Doesn't come together here like we've seen with Ford and some of these other like big companies that are like, we need to sell these cars.