HOOD 业务日趋成熟，支撑未来十年营收增长超过 30%，这为其高估值倍数提供依据，并使其成为强劲的长期投资标的。
逐段跳播
同一领域的另一只股票，Robin Hood。这只也下跌了约 29%。所以你可以看到，这就是为什么这个非对称组合在 2026 年过得相当艰难。但我真的很喜欢很多这类公司现在所处的位置，因为这些都是成长型公司，只是在过去几年里受到了估值倍数压缩的打击。
Another stock in the same area, Robin Hood. This is also down about 29%. And so you can see this is why the asymmetric portfolio has had a pretty rough 2026. But I really like where a lot of these companies are sitting because these are growth companies that have just been hit by multiple compression over the past couple of years.
你可以看到市盈率仍然很高。我实际上在去年晚些时候卖出了一小部分我的 Robin Hood 持仓，那是因为估值变得有点太贵了。市自由现金流比率约为 35 倍。所以，就像我说的，不是最便宜的股票，但它是一家过去几年持续增长的公司，真正是从疫情中走出来的。
在加密货币收入开始下降时经历过一些负面时期，但你可以看到，自 2024 年以来他们的营收以约 50% 的速度复利增长。那个增长率有所下降，但过去一年我们谈论的仍然是 30% 的增长率。
You can see price to earnings multiple still high. I actually sold a little bit of my so of my Robin Hood holding late last year and that's because that valuation just got a little bit too stretched.
Price to free cash flow is about 35. So, like I said, not the cheapest stock, but it is a company that has grown consistently over the past few years, really coming out of the pandemic.
Had some negative times when cryptocurrency revenue started to drop, but you can see that they've compound revenue at about 50% since 2024. That growth rate come down a little bit, but we're still talking about a 30% growth rate over the past year.
如果你看他们的收入来源，这正是过去三四年尤其发生变化的地方。过去更多是 yolo 交易。所以期权交易和加密货币本来是他们获取大部分收入的地方。你可以在这里看到，过去一年，大部分收入来自净利息收入。
所以这将是更多来自保证金贷款的传统利息。其中一部分将来自信用卡。你还会在这里这个亮绿色部分看到期权收入。加密货币收入仍然是业务的重要部分。股票收入比你想象的要小得多，考虑到 Robin Hood 平台上有多少笔交易发生。
过去一年只有约 4 亿美元的收入，然后是其他基于交易的收入。这就是预测市场将归入 Robin Hood 业务的地方。
And if you look at their sources of revenue, this is what's really changed over the past 3 or four years in particular. used to be much more yolo trading. So options trading and crypto was really going to be where they were going to get most of their revenue from.
You can see here that over the past year you're looking at most of the revenue is coming from net interest revenue. So this is going to be much more traditional interest coming from margin loans.
Some of that is going to be from the credit cards. You're also going to have options revenue in this bright green here. Cryptocurrency revenue still an important part of the business.
Equities revenue much smaller than you may think given how much transa how many transactions are happening on the Robin Hood platform. Only about $400 million in revenue over the past year and then other transaction-based revenue.
This is where prediction markets are going to fall into things for Robin Hood.
但真正重要的是 Robin Hood 的成熟化。这是一家现在拥有多得多的退休账户的公司。这些账户正以极快的速度增长。你可以为你的孩子开设托管账户。实际上他们正是运营 Trump accounts 的那一方。
这不会成为他们巨大的收入驱动因素或盈利驱动因素，因为他们基本上是按照成本加成的方式来做这件事。但再次强调，这就是那种随着他们向国际扩张、随着他们扩展到更多产品，我认为其收入能够在未来十年继续以超过 30% 的速度复利增长的公司。
如果这发生，那么估值倍数比我可能想要的略高——你知道，现在是 50 倍盈利——这个事实，它将会成长到与这个估值相匹配。我认为那将是一个对投资者来说非常出色的持仓。
But really the maturation of Robin Hood is what what I think is the most important. This is a company that now has many more retirement accounts. Those accounts are growing at an incredibly rapid rate.
You can do custodial accounts for your kids. They're actually the ones that are running the Trump accounts. that's not going to be a huge revenue driver for them or an earnings driver because they're basically doing that on a cost plus basis.
But again, this is the kind of company that as they expand internationally, as they expand into more products, I think their revenue can continue to comp compound in excess of 30% for the next decade.
If that happens, the fact that the multiple is a little bit higher than I would maybe want at, you know, 50 times earnings right now, it's going to grow into that valuation. And I think that's going to be a phenomenal position for investors to be.
这个频道对 $HOOD 的历次判断
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。