HOOD 看涨：今年跑输大盘，但疲软主要来自加密业务而非宏观；预测市场和加密动能使其免于更大幅度的下跌。它正从交易业务向外多元化——资产增长、国际扩张、营业利润率上升——不过增长仍具周期性，且它有能力在全球扩张。
逐段跳播
现在，如果我们换一个完全不同的公司来看，比如说，金融科技板块的一家公司，一家今年同样跑输大盘的公司，那就是Robin Hood。
Now, if we move on to a completely different player, say, in the fintech sector , a player that has also underperformed relative to the market this year, that is Robin Hood.
目前，Robinhood的股价并没有因为利率上升之类的宏观经济问题而承受明显压力。最初，这大概率是因为他们的加密货币业务大幅下滑。
Currently, Robinhood's stock is not under significant pressure due to macroeconomic issues such as rising interest rates, and the like. Initially, this was probably due to a significant decline in their cryptocurrency business.
现在，对他们来说幸运的是，与此同时，他们正在开发另一款产品，也就是预测市场。我知道人们对预测市场这款产品看法不一。有人说它不该是一个投资应用。而另一些人则说：“那就随他们去吧。”
Now, fortunately for them , at the same time, they were working on developing another product, namely forecasting markets. I know there are differing opinions about the forecasting markets product.
Some say it shouldn't be an investment app. While others say: "Well, let them do with it as they please."
但市场预测产品发布的时机对Robin Hood来说非常理想，因为当时股价非常有利。我认为，如果没有这一点，再加上加密货币的势头，这只股票本会大幅下跌。
But the timing of the market forecast release came at an ideal time for Robin Hood, as the stock price was very favorable. I think that without that, and with the momentum of cryptocurrencies, the stock would have fallen significantly.
它的市值现在是1000亿美元，撰写本文时股价为113美元。自年初以来它只下跌了2%。我认为它本可能跌得低得多。
Its market capitalization is now $100 billion , and the share price is $113 at the time of writing . It has fallen by only 2% since the beginning of the year. I think it could have gone much lower .
是的，这大概率是真的。再说一次，这正是把企业现实与市场预期区分开来的因素之一。加密货币一直与Robinhood联系在一起，通常也和YOLO交易联系在一起，不是吗？
Yes, that's probably true. Again, this is one of the things that separates the reality of the business from market expectations. Cryptocurrencies have always been associated with Robinhood, and also generally with YOLO trading, haven't they?
但如果我们更深入地看他们的业务，就会发现，在2020年或2021年，加密货币对他们来说是一件大事，可以说极大地成就了他们的名气。Yolo交易和GameStop事件也是如此。尽管那损害了他们的声誉，但当时我并没有Robin Hood账户。
But if we look more deeply at their work, we will find that in 2020 or 2021, cryptocurrencies were a huge deal for them, and arguably contributed significantly to their fame. The same applies to Yolo trading and the GameStop incident.
Although it damaged their reputation, I didn't have a Robin Hood account at the time.
我现在有一个账户，我还有一张Robin Hood信用卡。我也有一个银行账户，虽然里面没有余额，但当你开通他们的某些账户时，他们会给你一个余额。他们确实成功地发展成了一家公司。
I have an account now, and I have a Robin Hood credit card . I also have a bank account, although it doesn't have a balance, but they give you a balance when you open some of their accounts.
They have indeed succeeded in developing as a company .
另一件我当时没有、我甚至不知道他们当时是否提供的东西，就是Roth IRA。我是金卡会员，所以当我存入我的Roth退休账户时，每月会收到一笔奖励。我的孩子们现在也在那里有监护账户。
The other thing that I didn't have, and I don't even know if they offered it back then, was Roth IRAs. I am a gold member, so I receive a monthly bonus when I deposit into my Roth retirement account.
My children now have guardianship accounts there.
基本思路是，他们作为一家公司正在不断进化，而这正是他们成功背后的强大动力。看他们的增长，真正令人印象深刻的是他们提供的产品数量、人们使用的产品数量，以及被添加到他们平台上的资产。
The basic idea is that they are evolving as a company, and that is the strong motivation behind their success. Looking at their growth, what is truly impressive is the number of products they offer and the number of products people use, as well as the assets being added to their platform .
是的，资产总体上在增长，但增长最大的是其中一些不那么有吸引力的业务，比如退休服务，而这是件好事。这对公司来说是好消息。
Yes, assets are growing overall, but the biggest growth is in some of these less attractive businesses, such as retirement services, and that's a good thing . This is good news for the company.
至于预测市场，我并不喜欢它们。我偶尔会用，因为挺有意思的，比如说，押注一场维京人队的比赛。是的，我认为这更接近赌博而不是预测，但在法律上它被归类为预测市场。这使它得以在全球传播。
今天没必要讨论这件事，但它对公司来说是一个有利因素。
As for prediction markets, I am not a fan of them. I use it from time to time because it's entertaining, you know, for example, to bet on a Viking match. Yes, I think this is closer to betting than to predictions, but legally it is classified as a predictions market.
This allowed it to spread globally. There is no need to discuss this matter today, but it is a helpful factor for the company.
这是许多公司都提供的东西，不只是Robin Hood。但别忘了，他们通常是各自领域的先驱，当你正在做出彻底变革、而不是成为变革的受害者时，这是一个极好的位置。
This is something many companies offer, not just Robin Hood. But don't forget that they are usually pioneers in their field, and that's an excellent position when you're making a radical change, not becoming a victim of it.
至于Robinhood，有趣的是，与许多其他金融科技公司相比，它的交易价格要高得多。因此，宏观经济压力在这里并不是一个重要因素。
As for Robinhood, what is interesting is that it trades at a much higher price compared to many other financial technology companies . Therefore, macroeconomic pressures are not a significant factor here.
至于增长，看Robin Hood时，肯定仍然存在周期性波动。在市场上涨时，一家公司的表现通常比市场下跌时要好得多。但正如我提到的，这是一家不断扩张业务并使其多元化的公司。
As for growth, there are certainly still cyclical fluctuations when looking at Robin Hood. In a rising market, a company usually performs much better than it does in a falling market.
But, as I mentioned, it is a company that is constantly expanding and diversifying its business.
我认为他们有——我不记得确切数字——好几款产品为他们带来超过1亿美元的收入，而以前在2021年并不是这样。在2021年，普遍的看法是：“如果市场上涨，如果人们交易，我们就会赚很多钱。”
但现在，是的，公司正在推出许多产品，当然，他们也在美国以外推出这些产品。
I think they have, I don't remember the exact number, several products that generate more than $100 million in revenue for them , which was not the case previously, in 2021. In 2021, the prevailing view was: "If the market goes up, and if people trade, we're going to make a lot of money."
But now, yes, there are many products that the company is launching, and of course, it is launching them outside the United States as well.
但实际上，Robinhood的思路并不是建立在更多人交易、从而公司增长之上。并不是说会有更多人使用Robinhood体系内的多款产品、成为常客、人数增长，并为这个体系带来更多资金。
这样，我们就会在未来得到一个更稳定的Robinhood，无论市场是稳定、上涨还是下跌。到最后，这都不重要了。
But, in reality, Robinhood's idea is not based on more people trading, and therefore the company growing. It's not that more people will use multiple products within the Robinhood system, become regular customers, grow in number, and bring more money into the system.
Thus, we get a more stable Robinhood in the future, whether the market is stable, rising, or falling. In the end, it won't matter.
我相信这就是他们在GameStop事件惨败之后采取的做法。我认为他们走出了那场危机，正如我提到的，带着糟糕的声誉。我不相信有所谓坏名声这回事，我认为他们在这里就是一个很好的例子，因为正如我所说，他们已经遭受了大量批评。
I believe this is the approach they took after the GameStop debacle. I think they emerged from that crisis, as I mentioned, with a bad reputation. I don't believe there is such a thing as bad publicity, and I think they are a good example here, because they have already been subjected to a lot of criticism, as I say.
但归根结底，这是一家如今价值1亿美元的公司。它比以往任何时候都更大。所以，他们肯定走在正确的轨道上。
But ultimately, it is a company worth $100 million today. It's bigger than ever . So, they were certainly on the right track.
他们刚刚推出了黄金信用卡，我对自己说：“这真的很有意思；他们思考问题的方式和其他人完全不同。”如果你是一家传统银行，想要发展业务，就需要建一栋实体大楼，并雇用员工在里面工作。而 SoFi 和 Robinhood 走的却是完全相反的路。
因此，它们拥有很高的经营杠杆。这就是为什么你可能会看到很高的市盈率。
Well, they just launched the gold credit card, and I said to myself, " This is really interesting; they think about things in a completely different way than others." If you are a traditional bank and want to grow your business, you need to build an actual building and hire employees to work in it.
SoFi and Robinhood, however, take a completely opposite path. As a result, they have a high operational leverage. This is why you may see a high price-to-earnings ratio .
但如果我们看看 SoFi 和 Robinhood，正如我们在过去五年所看到的，它们的营业利润率——我认为这是需要关注的关键因素——持续上升，因为它们能够利用自己在技术上的所有投入。
每获取一个新客户的成本并不高，而且正如你提到的，它们的增长并不局限于美国；它们还可以向国际扩张。
But if we look at SoFi and Robinhood, as we have seen over the past five years, their operating profit margins— I think this is the key factor to focus on— continue to rise, because they are able to take advantage of all their investments in technology.
Each new customer is not very expensive, and as you mentioned, their growth is not limited to the United States ; they can expand internationally as well.
所以，未来有很多机会。这有点类似于 Netflix 进入电视市场。你可能在当地新闻上拥有本地垄断，但这仅限于你所在的地区。银行服务也是如此。现在，Netflix 进入市场并说：“我们不会局限于美国，而是要遍布全世界。”
这几乎是同一个概念。所以，我认为这才是真正的优势所在。
So, there are many opportunities in the future. This is somewhat similar , you know , to Netflix entering the television market. You may have a local monopoly on local news, but this will be limited to your region only.
The same applies to banking services. Now, Netflix enters the market and says: "We will not be limited to the United States , but will be everywhere in the world." It's almost the same concept. So, I think that's the real advantage here.
这就是为什么这些公司仍然拥有巨大的潜力，因为它们无需建设庞大的实体基础设施，就能变得比大多数竞争对手大得多。
This is why these companies still have enormous potential, because they can become much larger than most of their competitors without having to build a huge physical infrastructure.
我同意。我想这就是我同时持有这两只股票的原因。
I agree. I think that's why I own both of them.
观察点
这个频道对 $HOOD 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。