$HOOD · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-03
Robinhood 的业务和每股收益（EPS）可能继续增长，未来几年 20% 的 EPS 增长被认为是合理的；但在 91.60 美元的股价上，市场已反映了这些预期甚至更多。公允价值为 58 美元，因此该股看起来估值偏高，尚不构成买入机会，维持持有评级。该业务周期性很强：加密收入下降 55% 至 1.2 亿美元，而总收入增长 12%。
逐段跳播
Robinhood 公布了季度财务业绩，营收同比增长12%，与去年同期持平。公司希望站在人工智能技术的最前沿，并且已经推出了一款产品，让你可以通过自己的账户自动交易；公司表示，已有2.5亿美元的客户账户资金被分配用于自动交易。
Robinhood announced its quarterly financial results , with revenues up 12% compared to the same quarter last year. The company wants to be at the forefront of artificial intelligence technology, and has already created a product that allows you to trade automatically through your account, stating that $250 million in customer accounts has been allocated for automated trading.
我会谈谈为什么从长期来看这对 Robin Hood 如此重要。另外，投资者在问我，Robinhood 的股票现在是否终于构成了买入机会。
I will talk about why this is so important for Robin Hood in the long run. Also , investors are asking me if Robinhood stock finally represents a buying opportunity.
请记住，我全年都在跟踪这家公司的新闻，我的结论是它并不是一个买入机会。
Remember that I've been covering the company's news all year , and my conclusion was that it wasn't a buying opportunity.
到目前为止，这一预测被证明是正确的，因为自2026年初以来，该股已下跌超过19%。所以，在这个视频里，我想回答这只股票在回调后是否终于构成了买入机会，同时也和大家分享公司近期业绩的细节。
This prediction has turned out to be correct so far, as the stock has fallen by more than 19% since the beginning of 2026. So, in this video, I want to answer whether the stock finally represents a buying opportunity on the dip, as well as share with you the details of the company's recent performance.
Robinhood 最新的财报正是对这一趋势的一次观察。Robinhood 报告称，股票、期权和预测市场的交易活动创下纪录，并表示预测市场的收入同比增幅超过500%。
Robinhood's latest earnings report was a look at this trend. Robinhood reported record trading activity in stocks, options and prediction markets, and said revenues from prediction markets specifically rose by more than 500% compared to the same period last year.
因此，Robinhood 是一门周期性很强的生意。
Therefore, Robinhood is a very cyclical business.
当市场上涨时，Robinhood 的股票表现良好，因为投资者会加入这个平台。他们从本地新闻里听说股市正在创下历史新高，或者比特币价格正在创下历史新高。他们从朋友、家人以及工作或学校的同事那里听说，他们买的某项投资正在大幅上涨。
这会提升热情，增加交易活动，增加存款，并开立新账户。
When markets rise, Robinhood stock performs well because investors join the platform. They hear in their local news that the stock market is reaching record highs or that Bitcoin prices are reaching record highs.
They hear from their friends, family members, and colleagues at work and school about a particular investment they have purchased that is experiencing significant growth. This increases enthusiasm, increases trading activity, increases deposits, and opens new accounts.
但反过来也一样。当市场下跌时，当加密货币价格下跌时，当他们的朋友和家人正在亏钱时，他们其实并不会谈论这些，对吧？
But the opposite is also true. When the market is down, when cryptocurrency prices are falling , and when their friends and family members are losing money, they don't really talk about it, do they?
你可能有一些亲戚、朋友或同事，当他们从投资中赚到大钱时会谈论并炫耀，但你从来听不到他们亏损的事。你不会听到他们买了哪些加密货币、结果亏掉了99%的价值。你只会听到那些买了之后升值了的。
You may have those relatives, friends, or colleagues who, when they make large profits from their investments, talk about it and boast about it, but you never hear about their losses.
You don't hear about those cryptocurrencies that they bought and lost 99% of their value. You only hear about those that were bought and increased in value.
因此，Robin Hood 也是同样的道理。当市场下跌时，交易活动减少，利润也随之减少。
Therefore, the same applies to Robin Hood. When the market declines, trading activity decreases, and profits also decrease.
具体来说，Robinhood 报告称，在交易活动急剧下滑的背景下，其加密货币交易收入下降55%，至1.2亿美元，这总体上与比特币2026年的表现相符。
Specifically, Robinhood reported that its cryptocurrency trading revenue fell by 55% to $120 million amid a sharp decline in activity, which was generally in line with Bitcoin's 2026 results.
展望未来，华尔街分析师正密切关注 Robinhood，他们估计公司未来几年将实现20%的每股收益增长。这一估算会同时考虑好时期和坏时期，是对公司长期表现更全面的衡量。
Looking ahead, and with Wall Street analysts keeping a close eye on Robinhood, they estimate that the company will achieve 20% earnings per share growth over the next few years.
This estimate will take into account both good and bad times , and is a broader measure of the company's long-term performance.
我认为这是对 Robinhood 股票盈利能力增长的一个合理估算，因为他们不仅在增加新账户，而且随着他们增加新功能、鼓励平台上的交易者提高活跃度，这些账户的参与度也在提升。
I think this is a reasonable estimate of Robinhood's stock profitability growth, as they are not only adding new accounts, but the accounts are increasing their engagement as they add new features and encourage traders on the platform to increase their activity.
这里我要谈谈人工智能和智能体。这正是 Robin Hood 有兴趣推动人们在交易中使用智能体的主要原因，因为智能体可以更主动。它们可以反复买卖，而 Robin Hood 正是从每一笔交易、每一笔成交中赚钱。
Here I will talk about artificial intelligence and agents. This is the main reason why Robin Hood was interested in getting people to use agents in trading, because agents can be more proactive.
They can buy and sell repeatedly, and that's where Robin Hood makes money from every trade, from every single transaction.
Robin Hood 从中产生收入，无论是通过发布订单还是手续费等其他方式。因此，你交易得越多，对 Robinhood 就越有利，而 AI 代理的普及可能会促成更多交易，这对 Robinhood 来说是好消息。
Robin Hood generates revenue from this, whether through issuing orders or other means such as fees, etc. Therefore, the more you trade, the better for Robinhood, and the spread of AI proxy may facilitate more trading, which is good news for Robinhood.
对投资者来说就不见得是同样的好消息了。一般来说，你反应越多，如果你过度活跃，就不会带来长期的成功。因此，我更新了对 Robin Hood 的估值预测，以及我预计公司从今天到非常长期之间将产生的自由现金流金额，而我的结论依然不变：这只股票看起来估值过高，目前并不像是一个好的买入机会。
Not equally good news for investors. Generally, the more you react , if you are overly active, it will not lead to long-term success. Therefore, I have updated my Robin Hood estimates and the amount of free cash flow I expect the company to generate between today and the very long term, and my conclusion remains the same: the stock appears overvalued and does not look like a good buying opportunity right now.
说到这只股票，业务很可能会继续增长，而且正如我们之前看到的，每股收益很可能会继续增加，但我认为 91.60 美元的股价已经反映了这些预期，甚至更多。
Speaking of the stock now, the business is likely to continue growing, and as we have seen previously , earnings per share are likely to continue increasing, but the stock price at $91.60 , I think, already reflects those expectations and more.
我计算出的这只股票的公允价值是 58 美元。那么，回答我在引言中提出的问题：我认为它是买入机会吗？我会说不是，还不是。今天我将重申我对这家公司的“持有”评级。
I calculate the fair value of the stock at $58. So, to answer the question I posed in the introduction, do I think it's a buying opportunity? I would say no, not yet. I will reiterate my " hold" rating for this company today.