$HSY · Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. · 2026-11-08
HSY 在 2022 年见顶后估值合理或偏高，股息率 3%、市盈率 20，对应总回报率 6-7%、增长率 4-5%，因此面对 5% 的十年期美债，尽管公司做得不错，也不能期望太高。
逐段跳播
先从 Hershey's 说起。我认为这可以概括为二十年代初对任何回报的痴迷，再加上增长，都无所谓。这在2022年见顶。自那以后，情况一直不好。股息率只有3%，市盈率是20。把这些加在一起，收益率是6%或7%。
如果看业务，是的，有4-5%的增长，但10年期美国国债收益率是5%，你不能期望太多。业务不错，但基于过去的历史成功，它仍然估值合理或偏高。
Let's start with Hershey's. I think this can be summed up as the early twenties' obsession with any return, with additional growth, it doesn't matter . This peaked in 2022. Since then, the situation has been bad.
The dividend yield is only 3%, and the price-to-earnings ratio is 20. When you add everything up, you get a yield of 6 or 7%. If you look at business, well, yes, 4-5% growth, but with Treasury bonds at 5% for 10 years, you can't expect much.
Good work, but it is still fairly or overpriced based on past historical success .