HYG 处于决定性下行趋势且支撑已破，但基于周期时点，10月底至11月初可能见底。
逐段跳播
让我们从HYG的周线图开始，因为其中的损伤程度相当明显。HYG指标已经跌破周期底部的支撑位，而该支撑位在该结构的大部分时间里一直稳固。周线趋势已决定性地转为下行。
Let's start with the weekly chart for HYG, because the extent of the damage is quite clear in it . The HYG indicator has broken the support level of the cyclical bottom that held firm for most of that structure.
The weekly trend has turned decisively downward.
你可以看到我们的反转指标为负，并且就在那里指向下方。本周的下跌已将价格推至这个延伸水平。这是161.8%的延伸水平。今天早些时候，随着高收益债券随国债价格反弹，周线K线显示出更明显的下影线，但随着那波反弹消退，下影线也缩短了。
因此，在周线时间框架上，我们尚未看到令人信服的证据表明它拒绝屈服于抛售压力。更大的周线结构仍受影响。周线周期的时点仍允许未来出现一个底部。你可以看到，我们正走向那个落在10月底和11月初的时间窗口。
You can see our reversal indicator is negative and pointing downwards right there. This week's decline has pushed the price to this extension level. This is the extension level of 161.8%.
Earlier this morning, the weekly candle showed a more pronounced lower tail as high- yield bonds bounced with Treasury prices, but as that rally faded, that lower tail shortened.
Therefore, on the weekly timeframe, we have yet to see convincing evidence of a refusal to succumb to selling pressure. The larger weekly structure is still affected. The timing of the weekly cycle still allows for a future bottom.
You can see that we are heading towards that time frame which falls in late October and early November.
在日线图上，负面结构更容易看清。HYG指数已大幅崩塌。它仍远低于其89日移动均线。看看今天早上发生了什么。在就业报告公布后国债收益率下降时，我们最初得到了一波向上反弹，但随着收益率再次上升，那波反弹的大部分已经消退。
这个日线周期具有负面的构成。价格仍位于下行的通道下方，而这个周期继续向下走向一个预期中的底部，理想情况下在11月初。所以，这是一张重要的图表，因为高收益债券是我们寻找高利率影响风险资产这一确认的场所之一。
On the daily chart, the negative structure is more easily visible . The HYG index has collapsed sharply. It is still far from its 89-day moving average. And look what happened this morning.
We initially got an upward bounce when Treasury yields fell following the employment report, but as those yields rose again, much of that bounce faded. This daily cycle has a negative composition.
The price remains below the declining band, and this cycle continues to move downwards towards an expected bottom, ideally in early November. So, this is an important chart because high-yield bonds are one of the places where we can look for confirmation that high interest rates affect risky assets.
观察点
这个频道对 $HYG 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。