IBM 在每年这个时候有强烈的季节性上涨倾向，资金流显示大型交易者/专业投资者在买入 IBM。过去 20-30 年间，其上涨概率略高于 70%，但并非完美：2023 年上涨较晚，2019 年没有上涨，2016 年则完全应验。可以买入看涨期权、卖出看跌期权，或直接做多。
逐段跳播
这里有几只我喜欢的。我们现在看IBM。蓝线是IBM的季节性形态。你可以看到IBM通常在这个时点开始上涨。这是件积极的事。
Here's a couple that I like. We're looking at IBM right now. The blue line is a seasonal pattern for IBM. You can see IBM usually starts to rally up this time of the year. That's a positive thing.
我们还可以看资金流指标。这是大交易者一直在买入市场的时候。你可以看到当他们买入市场时发生了什么，带来了上涨。买入市场带来了上涨。他们一直在买入市场。所以，我们这里有一个独特的组合：有上涨的季节性倾向，而且聪明钱或专业人士一直在买入IBM，这是积极的。
We can also look at money flow index. This is when the large traders have been buying the market. You can see what happens when they've bought the markets led to rallies. Bought the market led to a rally.
Well, they've been buying in the market. So, we have a unique combination here. a seasonal tendency to rally and smart money or professionals been buying IBM that's positive.
所以我接着喜欢引入我的周期分析。我用的是timing solutions。这就是IBM现在所处的周期波。它应该开始上涨，事实上，回溯到19，IBM，20、30年前，它有72%的时间在这个时点上涨，上涨概率略高于70%。
So I then like to bring in my cyclical analysis. I'm using timing solutions for this. And this is the cyclical wave that IBM is in right here right now. It should start to rally in fact 72% of the time going way back in 19 in IBM 20 30 years.
It has rallied at this time of the year with a little over 70% probability of a rally.
它完美吗？不。你可以看到上一次是2023年。低点来得稍晚一些。但没错，我们等到了上涨。我们再看之前2019年，有一次上涨，那次没涨，还有2016年，那一次简直是完美的一次。所以我们不知道今年会等到完美的那一次，还是像这样的那一次，但我们知道IBM有很强的季节性上涨倾向。
Is it perfect? No. You can see the last time was 2023. The low came a little bit later. But yes, we got the rally. We look before in 2019 there was a rally time didn't rally and 2016 all out that was just a perfect one.
So we don't know if we get the perfect one this year or we get one like this but we know there's a strong seasonal tendency for IBM to rally.
事实上，我最早在30多年前就写过，IBM通常在这个时点上涨。那么你怎么应对呢？我不是做看跌期权看涨期权的人。这有点超出我的理解范围，但你可以买入看涨期权，可以卖出看跌期权，或者你可以直接做多这只股票。
In fact I first wrote about this over 30 years ago that IBM usually rallies at this time of the year. So how do you address that? Uh I'm not a put call guy. It's a little bit over my head, but you could buy a call, you could write a put, or you could just be outright long the stock.