IBM 即将公布的财报之路艰难：AI 的普及使客户削减核心 IT 支出，量子计算距产生实际影响还有 10-15 年，软件业务增长在过去两个季度放缓。Confluence 交易使软件利润率变得不明朗；IBM 并非动能型股票；短期内重回 332 美元的可能性不大。

So, I'm going to take a look at IBM here. What are your thoughts on this topic? Well, it's been a very difficult quarter. The third quarter is always the most difficult for organizations; well, they work in software, as well as in hardware.

Therefore, we will call them enterprise IT companies. Why is that? Well, first of all, everyone is on vacation. Therefore, it is very difficult to make deals in the third quarter because half the team is absent or for any other reason.

The reason doesn't matter . But it's always a tough time.

What makes it even more difficult is introducing artificial intelligence. So, it would be a good theory that companies, because that's what IBM serves , will continue their core spending while they develop new AI software and hardware.

But in practice, that's not what happens. They will cut back on, you know, normal spending to keep things running .

I think IBM might suffer from that in this third quarter. Finally , there is the issue of artificial intelligence. Okay, do they work in artificial intelligence? Sort of, but not really.

Therefore, they have to rely on quantum computing.

And I have to tell you, I am a fan of quantum computing, but I think it will take 10 to 15 years before it has a real impact in any practical way. Therefore, IBM faces a difficult road ahead in its upcoming earnings announcement .

Yes, I thought it was interesting that you mentioned quantum computing. This was in my notes to you because you said, "Look, they are ready for it, but I don't really see them going all out with it for widespread deployment."

What will change the story? Because you're betting on it happening at some point, just not now. What will change their reality to give them a greater presence in quantum computing?

But IBM is certainly ahead of many of its competitors in this area. Look, I mean, IBM's software business seems to be constantly growing. They have seen a significant shift towards higher profit margins and recurring business.

And we have the Red Hat acquisition, and that has brought at least some growth , hasn't it? You know, are the numbers going well? The growth of data software looks good. Cash flow projections for 2026 indicate an annual increase of $1 billion.

So, are things going in the right direction for IBM? I mean, what do you think of the stock at this price point of 237? It doesn't necessarily mean that if things are going in the right direction, the stock will rise, does it?

exactly . And you know, it's great that you brought up the topic of software. They made some gains there. But in the last two quarters, the gains started to decline, did n't they?

So, it's about changing the pace of gains. It is not maintaining this upward momentum; it is bullish but not as much as the previous quarter. So, this is a cause for concern.

In addition , they made a major acquisition of a company called " Confluence," which will make things more complicated. This will make it difficult for analysts to determine whether things are getting better or worse.

Therefore, this is an area that IBM shareholders should pay close attention to this quarter to see whether the software, and we like software profit margins , are improving for the company or not.

Yes, what about "Watson X"? I don't really hear much about it when we talk about artificial intelligence. I mean, there is definitely a sense that IBM and artificial intelligence will help to further boost the company's growth in the future, but where does "Watson X" fit into that?

Is artificial intelligence a significant growth opportunity when it comes to helping companies develop, deploy, and manage these AI applications ? Is it good enough?

I don't think so because we don't really hear about it, do we ? Which is rather sad because maybe a decade ago when they released it, it was really, you know, absolutely amazing.

But in reality, they were lax, and certainly did not devote as much time and attention to trying to develop this field with the same enthusiasm shown by companies such as OpenAI , Anthropic, and even established companies such as Meta and Microsoft.

So, I think they were really trying to scale back their AI work, and they fell into the trap of saving money, because it wasn't making much progress five years ago, so they gave up prematurely .

But can the situation be salvaged? Absolutely, that's possible. In fact, what they are really known for is working with their long-standing clients, who are very large international companies, to help them modernize their technological infrastructure.

I believe that having artificial intelligence in-house will enable them to help their customers adopt this technology. This is an area of their services that they should start promoting strongly.

It is about $100 lower than its 52- week high of $237. The highest level was $332. Let's say it's $100 below the peaks, and only about $40 higher than its lows at this stage. Do you think IBM is capable of regaining those peaks, $300 or $330? If so, when?

Well, that's the crucial question, isn't it? when? Well, unfortunately I think if you're trying to invest in artificial intelligence, people have turned their attention elsewhere .

As an introduction to this section, you were talking about the return of memory and the return of software. Therefore, IBM really needs to fight to attract investors' attention and say: " Become an owner of our company and we will help you grow in terms of AI-covered investment portfolios."

Okay, let's see what happens. I am not optimistic. It appears that investors are more driven by market momentum, and this takes IBM out of the equation. It is definitely not a momentum stock.