说话者估算IBM的公允价值为248美元，而市价为160美元，意味着IBM被显著低估；在投资者担忧之下，其前瞻市盈率已从几周前的五倍多、几个月前的六倍多降至3.553，而利率下降20至30个基点降低了未来现金流的折现率，对估值形成支撑。
逐段跳播
IBM 股票目前的市价与远期市盈率之比为 3.553。就在几周前，它的这一倍数还在五倍以上。几个月前，该股的市价与远期销售额之比曾达到六倍以上的高点。因此，随着投资者担忧加剧，其估值在过去几周里已大幅下降。
IBM stock is currently trading at a price-to-forward ratio of 3.553. Just a few weeks ago, it was trading at a price-to-forward multiple of more than five. A few months ago, the stock reached a high of more than six in price-to-forward sales.
Thus, the valuation has fallen significantly over the past few weeks as investor concerns have grown.
不过，近期对它有利的因素之一是利率下降了约 20 到 30 个基点。由于这些企业将产生的自由现金流大部分集中在若干年之后，这对我的公允价值估算影响更大。
However, one of the factors that has worked in its favor recently is the decrease in interest rates by about 20 to 30 basis points. Since much of the free cash flow that these businesses will generate is concentrated several years in the future, this has a more significant impact on the fair value estimate I calculate.
要知道，为了得出股票的公允价值，我会估算这家企业从今天到很长远的未来将产生的现金流，然后对这些现金流进行折现，因为未来的钱对我们来说不如今天口袋里的钱值钱。这当中还涉及风险，以及货币的时间价值。
利率是这一折现率的关键组成部分。由于利率已经下降，这对估值产生了正面影响。
Remember, to get a fair value for a stock, I estimate the amount of cash flow the business will generate from today and into the very long term. Then I discount those cash flows, because money in the future is worth less to us than the money in our pockets today.
There are also risks associated with it, and there is the time value of money. Interest rates are a key component of that discount rate. Since interest rates have fallen, this has had a positive effect on the valuation.
总体而言，我计算出的公允价值为 248 美元，而当前 160 美元的市场价格表明，Nebeus Collection 目前被显著低估。
Overall, I calculated a fair value of $248, and the current market price of $160 indicates that the Nebeus Collection is significantly undervalued right now.
这个频道对 $IBM 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。