随着AI使用转向更高效的消费方式，Intel长期处于非常有利的位置；此前的下跌部分合理，因为股价曾超出公允价值，而今日下跌5%后情绪略有回升，Intel看起来已接近公允价值。它相对AMD获得动能，但仍落后于Nvidia；代工交易可能带来增长。
逐段跳播
现在到了“Cash-Tag”环节。因此，让我们欢迎下一位嘉宾，Lakefolio 研究副总裁 Megan de Branting，来深入分析今天股价下跌的 Intel。
Now it's time for the " Cash-Tag" segment. Therefore, let's welcome our next guest , Megan de Branting, Vice President of Research at Lakefolio, to take an in-depth look at Intel, whose stock fell today.
是的，正如你提到的，当我们看 Intel 时，该股今天下跌了约5%。我认为它比9月份的高点低了约30%，但仍比一年前高出约150%。所以，Intel 现在是在大幅上涨之后出现了小幅回落。
Yes, when we look at Intel, as you mentioned, the stock has dropped by about 5% today. I think it's about 30% lower than its peak in September, but it's still about 150% higher than it was a year ago.
So, a big rise is now followed by a slight decline for Intel.
不过，我们可以看几个方面。其中之一是“情绪”，今天我们有一张独特的图表，让我们能够专门观察投资者对 Intel 的情绪，以及这种情绪如何随该股变化。我们看到它在2025年开始达到峰值，并在今年6月开始下降。
However, what we can look at are a few things. One of them is " sentiment," and we have a unique chart here today that allows us to look at investor sentiment specifically towards Intel and how it has changed with respect to the stock.
We saw that it started to reach its peak in 2025 and began to decline in June of this year.
你可以看到那条黄线上的士气。就我们而言，我们看到它在9月触及最低点，现在开始小幅回升。所以，对我们来说，当你把该股的同比变化与整体投资者情绪水平放在一起看时，我们开始看到这些线趋于收敛。我们很希望看到这些线相交。
You can see that morale on that yellow line there. For our part, we saw that it reached its lowest point in September and is now starting to rise slightly. So, for us, we started to see those lines converge when you look at the year-on-year change in the stock versus overall investor sentiment levels . We would love to see those lines meet.
我们认为，这轮下跌有一部分是有些合理的，因为该股此前略微超出了其公允价值。
We believe that some of this decline was somewhat justified, as the stock had slightly exceeded its fair value.
但从长期来看，当我们展望未来五年时，我们也看到人工智能的消费方式正在发生重大转变。因此，我们可以看看过去构建人工智能模型需要什么，并将其与现在使用这些模型需要什么进行比较。随着消费者转向更高效的使用模式，这对 Intel 及其提供的处理器有利。
所以，从长期来看，Intel 处于非常有利的位置，但鉴于该股一直在非常高的水平上交易，我们今年确实看到情绪受到了一些冲击。
But in the long term, when we look to the future five years from now, we also see a major shift in how artificial intelligence is consumed . Therefore, we can look at what it used to take for artificial intelligence to build models, and compare it to what it takes now to use those models.
As consumers shift towards a more efficient usage pattern, this is to the advantage of Intel and the processors it provides. So, in the long run, Intel is in a very good position, but we have certainly seen some shocks to sentiment this year given that the stock has been trading at very high levels.
但当你审视这一点时，这是基于客户说他们购买的产品含有 Intel 芯片，还是更像是“嘿，那些股票交易员在谈论 Intel 股票吗？”如你所知，他们极其兴奋，尽管该股较我们7月看到的那些创纪录水平下跌了约35%。
你的数据表明你看到了情绪数据的下降，但你会如何对发布相关内容的人进行分类，从社交情绪的角度，也就是客户与可能正在交易该股并对此感到兴奋的人之间的区别？
But when you look at it, is this based on customers saying they are buying something that contains an Intel chip, or is it more like, "Hey, are those stock traders talking about Intel stock?"
And they, as you know, are extremely excited despite the stock being down about 35% from those record levels we saw in July . Your data suggests that you have seen a decline in sentiment data, but how would you categorize the people posting about this in terms of social sentiment, i.e., the difference between a client and someone who might be trading the stock and is excited about it?
所以，这些人可能是 Intel 的投资者，他们在谈论自己的产品与 AMD 这类公司的产品相比如何。所以，这有点模糊，但当我们审视这一点时，它对我们来说确实很有预测性，我们乐于看到这一点，因为看起来失血即将停止。
随着 Intel 下跌、这些线趋于收敛，我们认为该股目前更接近其公允价值，你知道，我们越看这些需求水平就越这么认为。
So, these might be people who are investors in Intel and are talking about how their products compare to those of a company like AMD. So, it's a bit murky, but it's certainly very predictive on our part when we look at this, and we like to see this a bit as it seems the bleeding is about to stop.
With Intel declining and those lines converging, we believe the stock is currently more in line with its fair value, you know, the more we look at these demand levels .
有一点不在其中，那就是我们可以看到人们在谈论并对这些芯片产生兴趣，我们记录到同比增长约29%，以提供一个与 Nvidia 甚至 AMD 这类公司对比的同业参照点。
One thing that isn't there is that we can see people talking about and taking an interest in those chips , and we've recorded an increase of about 29% year-over-year to provide a peer reference point against companies like Nvidia or even AMD.
事实上，在我们的数据中，我们首次看到 Intel 相对于 AMD 获得了一些动能，这很有意思，但我们看到它仍落后于 Nvidia，后者的需求同比增长了约81%。
In fact, we see Intel gaining some momentum against AMD for the first time in our data, which is interesting, but we see that it is still lagging behind Nvidia, where demand has risen by about 81% year-on-year.
所以，Intel 通常落后于这些同行，因此看到它开始在这里获得一些动能，并且在该股下跌的同时开始获得更高的情绪水平，这很有意思。
So, Intel has usually lagged behind these peers, so it's interesting to see it start to gain some momentum here, and also to see it start to gain higher sentiment levels as that stock declines.
我们看到投资者谈论最多的是整体上的人工智能融资，以及当你看到这些巨额资本支出账单时这将如何完成，这些公司将如何为此买单，显然这正在影响 Intel。
The biggest thing we see investors talking about is AI funding in general, and how that will be done when you look at these huge capital expenditure bills, and how these companies will pay for it, and obviously this is affecting Intel.
我们看到一些对持续通胀的担忧，以及加息可能意味着什么。所以，其中一些事情是投资者有点担心的。但总体而言，我认为积极情绪的最大驱动因素之一是对晶圆厂产能的任何潜在升级。我们看到 KeyBank 的一份报告，我认为该报告尚未得到证实，内容是关于 Intel 代工部门可能正在推进的潜在交易，所以我认为这将是未来非常值得关注的事情，并可能成为 Intel 的另一个潜在增长催化剂。
We see some concerns about continued inflation, and what interest rate increases might mean. So, some of these things are things that investors worry about a little. But overall, I think one of the biggest drivers of positive sentiment is any potential upgrades to the foundry plants.
We have seen a report from KeyBank, which I believe has not been confirmed, about potential deals in the works for Intel's foundry arm, so I think this will be very important to monitor going forward, and could be another potential growth catalyst for Intel.
是的，Megan，我认为他们在中央处理器（CPU）市场的份额首次跌破了70%。
Yes, Megan, I think their share of the central processing unit (CPU) market has dropped below 70% for the first time.
因此，我认为这本质上代表了一种“水涨船高”的情况。正如你提到的，AMD 在这里无疑是一个主要参与者，可能从 Intel 手中夺取了最大的市场份额，现在 Nvidia 也开始进入，但 Intel 在中央处理器领域仍然是一个主要参与者。
所以，当你开始在图表上看到这样的转变，并且从长期来考虑时，这些仍然是 Intel 的一些长期利好因素。
Therefore, I believe this inherently represents a case of "a rising tide lifting all boats". As you mentioned, AMD is certainly a major player here and may have captured the largest market share from Intel, and now Nvidia is starting to enter, but Intel is still a major player in the field of central processing units.
So, when you start to see a shift like this on the graph, and when you think about the long term, these are still some of the long-term positives for Intel.
观察点
这个频道对 $INTC 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 5 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。