$INTC · Daniel Pronk · 2026-11-04
Pronk 对 Intel 在任何价格下都不感兴趣，称其是最差的芯片股之一。营收同比增长 21% 至 165 亿美元，但第四季度营收预计为 155 亿美元，且营收、营业利润和现金流仍远低于此前高点。在 81 倍自由现金流和 43 倍远期市盈率下，他认为该股已偏离基本面，估值过高。
逐段跳播
有很多关于 ServiceNow、Intel 甚至 Fortinet 等股票在发布财报后大幅暴跌的新闻。
There has been a lot of news about stocks like ServiceNow, Intel, and even Fortinet collapsing drastically after releasing their earnings reports.
Shopify。接下来我们会谈谈 Intel 和 Reddit。这是一个非常有趣的话题。
Shopify. Next we'll talk about Intel and Reddit. This is a very interesting topic.
好，现在我们来讨论 Intel。Intel 股价较历史高点下跌了60%，过去一个月下跌了50%。该公司发布财报后股价大幅下跌，并在发布当天拖累了整个 AI 芯片行业。
Okay, now let's discuss Intel. Intel shares are down 60% from their highs and have fallen 50% in the past month. The company's share price fell sharply after it released its earnings report, bringing down the entire AI chip industry on the day of the release.
看 Intel 的财报，其营收同比增长21%，达到165亿美元，这对公司来说实际上是一个不错的利润率。然而，他们预计第四季度营收为155亿美元，这意味着他们预计营收将较上一季度下降。
市场对此反应不佳，因为 Intel 此前被当作一家像 AMD 那样高速增长的 AI 芯片公司来估值。尽管 Intel 第三季度超出了目标，但其第四季度营收预测放缓，迫使投资者大幅下调了该股票的估值。
Looking at Intel's earnings report, their revenue grew 21% year over year to $16.5 billion, which was actually a good margin for the company. However, they expect revenue of $15.5 billion in the fourth quarter, which means they expect revenue to decline compared to the previous quarter.
The market did not take this well, as Intel was being valued as a very fast-growing AI chip company, like AMD. While Intel exceeded its target for the third quarter, its slower fourth-quarter revenue forecast has forced investors to significantly lower the stock's value.
现在看 Intel 的现金流量表，可以看出其经营现金流相当强劲，今年迄今为132亿美元，而去年同期仅为54亿美元。今年迄今资本支出也下降至102亿美元，这意味着 Intel 已重回自由现金流为正的区间，今年迄今已产生了30亿美元的营收。
Now, looking at Intel's cash flow statement, it can be seen that their operating cash flow is quite strong and stands at $13.2 billion so far this year, compared to just $5.4 billion in the same period last year.
Capital expenditures have also declined to $10.2 billion so far this year, meaning Intel is back in free cash flow positive territory and has generated $3 billion in revenue so far this year.
然而，Intel 的营收仍远低于其历史最高水平。尽管他们正在扭转局面并实现增长，但他们仍然落后，还有很长的路要走。Intel 的营业收入也仍然非常低，远低于其历史最高水平，远未完全恢复。
经营现金流也是同样的情况。他们的经营现金流仍然非常低。它正在回升，但仍只达到此前高点的约50%。
However, Intel's revenue is still far below their all-time highs. Although they are turning around and growing, they are still lagging behind and have a long way to go. Intel's operating income is also still very low and far below their all-time highs, which are nowhere near fully recovering.
And it's the same story with the operating cash flow. Their operating cash flow is still very low. It is coming back, but it is still about 50 percent of the way to reaching its previous high.
尽管如此，Intel 的股价此前一路飙升，最近还创下历史新高。我一直不明白 Intel 的股价为什么涨这么多，但我认为它已经偏离基本面太远，变得过于昂贵。市场现在似乎正在纠正这个错误，但我仍然对这只股票不感兴趣，因为它目前的交易价格是自由现金流的81倍，远期市盈率为43倍。
归根结底，在我看来，这是市场上最差的芯片股之一，在这个价格上，或者说在任何价格上，我都不对 Intel 股票感兴趣。
Despite all this, Intel's share price was skyrocketing and recently reached a new all-time high. I never understood why Intel's stock price was rising so much, but I think it had drifted too far from its fundamentals and become too expensive.
The market now seems to be correcting that mistake, but I'm still not interested in this stock because it's still trading at 81 times free cash flow and a 43 forward price-to-earnings ratio.
And ultimately, in my opinion this is one of the worst chip stocks on the market and at this price, or really at any price, I'm not interested in Intel stock.