$INTU · David Lin · 2026-10-26
INTU 今年早些时候因市场担心 Claude 及其他 AI 技术可能对其造成颠覆而下跌约 50%。说话者认为现有 TurboTax 用户不太可能用 AI 自行搭建报税软件，因此这一威胁大概率不成立，不过来自初创公司或其他公司的竞争仍有可能。总体而言，INTU 更有可能从自身采用 AI 中获得效率提升，一旦这些效率到位、成本下降而人们继续使用其服务，其表现可能非常出色。
逐段跳播
但如果我们拿像 Intuit、TurboTax 这样的公司来说，它们遭到抛售，我的意思是，今年早些时候跌幅大约有50%。而这还是在 Claude 和其他 AI 技术、以及像 Intuit 这样的公司可能被颠覆的背景下发生的。
But if we take a company like Intuit, TurboTax, they sold off I I mean, it was roughly like 50% earlier this year. And this was in light of um, Claude and other AI technologies and the potential for the disruption of somebody like an Intuit.
在我看来，我退一步想了想，然后我想，如果人们用 TurboTax，而且过去10年或15年一直在用 TurboTax，他们不会用 AI 来自己搭建报税软件。这大概率不在考虑范围内。
会不会有其他初创公司和公司进来，把像 Intuit 这样的公司拉下马？绝对会。但总体而言，更有可能的是 Intuit 会通过自身对 AI 的采用来提升效率。结果就是，一旦这些效率到位、成本降下来，而且人们继续使用它们的服务，它们可能表现非常好。
Well, in my mind and and I I sort of step back and and thought about it and I'm like, if people use TurboTax and they've used TurboTax for the last 10 or 15 years, they're not going to use an AI to build their own tax software.
That's probably off the table. Could there be competition from other startups and companies coming in to unseat somebody like Intuit? Absolutely. But overall, it's more more likely that Intuit is going to develop those efficiencies from their own adoption of AI.
And as a result, um they could perform really well once those efficiencies are in place and they lower their costs and um people continue to use their service.