IonQ 值得买入：其以 13 亿美元全股票方式收购 Alicity 并不令人担忧，因为 IonQ 缺乏现金，而以股票支付更为可取。当前股价 35 美元，对比我给出的 49 美元公允价值，我预期短期有上涨空间、长期上涨空间巨大，但这仅适合风险承受能力极高的投资者；它可能下跌 90%，也可能上涨 100 倍。

We have huge news for IonQ stock investors, as the company announced a $1.3 billion acquisition deal, which was not well received by the market at all. The stock price has fallen by more than 19%, or nearly 20%, over the past five days .

So, I wanted to share with you the details of this deal, identify what is specifically bothering the market, give you my opinion on it, and whether I think IonQ stock represents a buying opportunity at this low point.

You can see the price movement of IonQ stock here during the last five trading sessions . It has decreased by 19.8%. Looking at performance since the beginning of the year, it has fallen by more than 22% in 2026.

The agreement included IonQ's acquisition of Alicity, a company specializing in " Zero Trust" security, in an all- equity deal valued at up to $1.3 billion.

The crucial point here is not the price of $1.3 billion, but how IonQ is paying for that amount, which is with the shares themselves. This is the crux of the matter.

When a company acquires another using its own shares, it sends a signal to the market that the company believes its shares are overvalued . Also, when you buy another company using all of its shares, you may have to issue more shares, and this dilutes the stakes of existing shareholders.

If the company eventually becomes profitable , those profits will be distributed among a larger number of shares, and therefore the earnings per share will be lower. So , it's not just IonQ's acquisition that's driving the stock down.

In fact, the fact that IonQ is only paying with shares to complete this acquisition is what is driving the stock down.

But I would say that IonQ, in undertaking this acquisition, did not have a real choice between paying in cash or shares because the company did not have much liquidity in the first place.

Cash flow is extremely important for IonQ because it is losing a lot of money in its net profits . It is still far from the revenue levels that would enable it to self-support its operations.

It needs to continue turning to investors and asking for more capital.

In fact, IonQ has approximately $2.119 billion in cash and short- term investments on its balance sheet . The reason is that the management team was very wise and sold a lot of shares when the quantum computing industry was at the height of its frenzy, when everyone was excited about quantum computing stocks and prices rose by thousands of percent.

Therefore, they are keen to maintain this liquidity because that period of turmoil has largely ended. As I shared with you previously, IonQ's stock has fallen by about 20%, or even more than 20% here in 2026.

They do not have the same momentum and enthusiasm that surrounded them previously in 2026.

Accordingly, they want to be cautious about the liquidity they have available to get to the next stage. It will take some time until they reach a level of revenue that makes their business self- sustaining.

Therefore, of the total value of this transaction, approximately $150 million was structured as profits contingent on Aliceity's business performance. The deal is expected to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year.

Regarding the number of shares to be issued, IonQ will need to issue shares worth approximately $1.2 to $1.3 billion, depending on the final terms of the purchase price agreement.

Therefore, the number of shares to be issued will depend on the average volume-weighted average price of IonQ shares over the 20 days prior to completion, with a price range for the share between a minimum of $3 and a maximum of $49.61 per share.

Therefore, it will not depend on IonQ's closing share price on a specific day, but rather on the 20-day volume-weighted average share price . It is a more complex way of measuring the value of a stock, as it is determined based on its price on a particular day, taking into account the trading volume on that day, making it a more comprehensive measure of valuation, allowing for more precise adjustment of the valuation, and reducing the influence of a few market participants on it.

Impressively, the company they acquired has consistently recorded growth, doubling its revenue and customer base annually, without any loss of customers among active accounts. Therefore , the company they are acquiring is growing significantly, and is supposed to contribute to increasing IonQ's revenues, which are still relatively small.

IonQ generated $246 million in revenue over the past twelve months, and this acquisition is expected to add to that total. When measured based on revenues over the past twelve months, IonQ is the largest company specializing exclusively in quantum computing.

This will make it bigger. This comes after the company's acquisition of Skyworks, a manufacturing foundry, which significantly expands the scope of the business and the size of the company .

Following the price drop, IonQ stock is now trading at a price- to-futures-sales multiple of 16.26.

This level is close to the lowest trading price for IonQ stock according to this valuation metric, looking at past years. I have previously mentioned that there have been some waves of hysteria surrounding quantum computing stocks, with the stock at one point reaching a price- to-earnings multiple close to 100.

Of course, I posted several videos during those times and warned investors against buying quantum computing stocks in those frenzied moments. I hope you have seen those videos and avoided buying quantum computing stocks, because almost all of them have fallen significantly from those record levels.

But here, at a forward price-to- sales multiple of around 16, I told investors that the opportunity looked attractive now.

The risk-to-reward ratio has become more in favor of investors who seize this opportunity and take this big gamble to achieve great success with a quantum computing stock that has huge upside potential, but also carries the greatest risk, isn't it?

When I think about all the stocks currently available in the market, I find that quantum computing stocks are at the top of the list of the riskiest investments that can be bought in the stock market.

So, very high risks, and the potential for very high returns.

Therefore, only investors with a very high risk tolerance should consider these stocks . I have also updated my estimate of the intrinsic value or fair value of AeonQ, and today I believe that the value of one share in the company is $49 .

The current market price is $35. Therefore, I anticipate significant upside opportunities in the near term, as well as tremendous upside potential in the very long term. But once again , let me remind everyone that the situation involves very high risks .

This reduces my confidence in my discounted cash flow valuation model, because the results are highly uncertain, and the range of probabilities is very wide , making me less confident in my fair value estimates .

For this reason, I will approach this matter with a greater margin of safety.

I usually maintain a safety margin of 5 to 10%, but with IonQ, I will maintain a safety margin of 15 to 25% to account for the greater uncertainty and higher risk factor.

You mentioned that the most recent change you made regarding "IonQ" was an upgrade of the stock's rating, right? I have buy, hold, and sell ratings here , but I recently added a new column to my spreadsheet to track the latest rating change, whether I upgrade or downgrade it, because sometimes I evaluate a company and reaffirm the same previous rating.

So, if the rating is " retain," I would say that it remains so and there will be no change in the rating . It would simply be a reaffirmation of the previous position.

But I think many viewers want to know when you changed the rating, and when you upgraded or downgraded from its current ranking. As for IonQ, I have updated that ranking.

I upgraded it on September 23, 2026. I upgraded it to "Buy" and it's already below standard, isn't it? It has dropped by 19% in just the last five days, and I upgraded it on September 23rd.

So, this upgrade isn't going well so far. However, whether it works for me or not, I will continue to follow up and keep you updated. I am not trying to avoid losses and only inform you of winning results.

I don't think this is the right thing to do when you're trying to gain the trust of your viewers and the people who follow your research. So, what's my opinion on IonQ today? Do I think it's still a buying opportunity, or is this news a reason to lower the rating?

I don't think so. I believe it is a buying opportunity and I don't see the entire stock deal as a cause for concern, because, as I shared with you, they don't have much cash on hand.

The situation would be different if they had $20 billion in cash and chose to pay with shares. I would have been concerned about the evaluation if that were the case.

They don't have much cash, so whatever deal they make, I prefer they pay with shares rather than cash. So today I will emphasize the buy rating, but again, it should only be considered if you have a very high risk tolerance.

It is very likely that this stock will lose 90% of its value, but it is also possible that its value will increase 100 times from here. Therefore, very high risk, but also very high potential for profit.