$IONQ · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-01

Speaking of high-risk, high-yield stocks, Iran is one of those new clouds that lease computing power and computing capacity to companies that are looking for it and feel constrained by their own infrastructure.

One or some of the customers are from the same large corporations because they want to diversify their computing power. They do not want to own all the computing power themselves.

They want to rent out some of their computing needs so they can adjust accordingly. If they need more, they can rent more. If they need a smaller quantity, they can choose not to renew the contracts.

Of course, this makes business risky for Iran, but at the moment business is booming, backlogs are increasing, and the company has sold out of its products and services for the next two years.

I calculated the fair value of the company at $46. The current market price is just over $27, leaving room for 67% growth. However, as I mentioned, it is risky, and one of the main reasons it is risky is that you need to spend a lot of capital upfront to build the data centers and then lease them out and get cash flow slowly over time.

This led me to estimate that the company's free cash flow will be negative $20 in 2027, negative $18 in 2028, and another negative $17 in 2029. I do not expect this company to achieve positive cash flow until 2030.

We are looking ahead to several more years. And when you look many years into the future, the risks certainly increase. I performed these calculations for the company "Ion". I believe the risks of this business are among the highest compared to any other company you could invest in, but I also believe the reward is worthwhile if things go according to the company management team's plans.