$IONQ · Investing Simplified - Professor G · 2026-11-05
IONQ 是我长期持有但正在减持、而非清仓的标的：在出现更好的路径之前，我不会投入新资金；我长期仍相信它，但表示回报（尤其是量子计算方面）比我最初想的更遥远。我仍认为业务非常强劲——营收增长 287% 至 8010 万美元，4.5-4.6 亿美元的预测增至三倍，4.85 亿美元积压订单，以及 2027 年 256 量子比特目标——而该股今年下跌 28%，此前进行了 20 亿美元股票融资交易，季度亏损约 1.2 亿美元。
逐段跳播
而 IonQ 的股价下跌超过25%。
and IonQ's stock fell by more than 25%.
现在，我们来看这份名单上最危险的一个，这是一只我仍然认为非常非常强劲的股票。IonQ。我录制这段视频时，它的价格约为32.40美元。今年下跌约28%，过去一个月下跌约27%，较2025年10月创下的收盘纪录高点下跌约60%。
Now , we move on to the most dangerous one on this list , which is a stock that I still see as very, very strong. IonQ. It costs about $32.40 while I'm recording this video. It's down about 28% this year, about 27% over the past month, and about 60% from its record closing high in October 2025.
如果你看过我5月关于量子计算股票的视频，IonQ 是我的首选，而该公司已经实现了我所期望的。上一季度营收达到8010万美元，增长287%。他们将今年的营收预测提高了两倍，从2月份的2.25亿至2.45亿美元提高到目前的4.5亿至4.6亿美元，其中包括他们收购的 SkyWater 芯片工厂。
他们的订单积压价值4.85亿美元，目标是到2027年交付首批256量子比特系统。
If you watched my video about quantum computing stocks in May, IonQ was my top pick, and the company has delivered what I hoped for . Revenue in the last quarter reached $80.1 million, an increase of 287%.
They have tripled their revenue forecast for this year , from $225-245 million in February to $450-460 million currently, including the SkyWater chip factory they acquired . Their backlog of orders is worth $485 million, and they are targeting delivery of their first 256-qubit systems in 2027.
这一切听起来相当不错，那么为什么股价还在下跌？我一开始提到的第二个原因。外部融资。10月12日，IonQ 同意以13亿美元收购一家名为 Aliro 的网络安全公司，全部以股票支付。股价下跌约9%。
Well, all of this sounds pretty good, so why is the stock falling then ? The second reason I mentioned at the beginning . External financing. On October 12, IonQ agreed to acquire a cybersecurity company called Aliro for $1.3 billion, to be paid entirely in stock. The stock fell by about 9%.
两天后，该公司将新股和预融资权证的出售价格定为每股40美元，价值20亿美元。每股附带两份额外的权证，可按69.46美元的价格购买股票。这意味着1亿份新权证。股价又下跌9.5%，并在10月16日交易完成时再下跌约9%。
这是大约一年内的第二轮20亿美元融资，去年的买家支付了每股93美元。
Two days later, the company set a price of $40 per share for the sale of new shares and pre-funded guarantees worth $2 billion . Each share came with two additional guarantees to purchase shares at a price of $69.46.
This means 100 million new guarantees. The stock fell by an additional 9.5%, and by about another 9% when the deal was completed on October 16. This is the second $2 billion funding round in about a year, with last year's buyers having paid $93 per share.
他们仍在亏损，上一季度亏损约1.2亿美元，即使按调整后的 EBITDA 计算也是如此。
They are also still losing money, about $120 million in the last quarter, even on an adjusted EBITDA basis .
大多数分析师仍持乐观态度，平均目标价在63至68美元之间，大约是当前价格的两倍。IonQ 将于11月5日公布财报，所以我们将确切看到那里会发生什么。
Most analysts remain optimistic with an average target price of between $63 and $68, roughly double the current price . IonQ will announce its earnings on November 5, so we'll see exactly what happens there.
但我目前对 IonQ 的决定是我所说的“削减”。我说的削减，并不是指将其从投资组合中移除。我暂时停止向其注入任何新资金，直到我看到更好的路径。我很乐意持有这只股票。我当然不会放弃它。
我长期仍然相信它。我只是认为我们可能比我最初想的要走得更远一些，尤其是在量子计算方面。所以我在这里只是观望。我想看看会发生什么，但我不会放弃这项投资。
But my current decision regarding IonQ is what I call " cutting". By reduction, I do not mean removing it from the investment portfolio. I am stopping the injection of any new dollars into it for the time being until I see a better path.
I am happy to hold onto this stock. I certainly won't give it up. I still believe in it in the long run. I just think we might be a little further away than I initially thought, especially with quantum computing.
So I'm here just to search. I want to see what happens, but I'm not going to give up on this investment.
我会减持“IonQ”。在跌势停止之前，我不会注入新资金。AeonQ 的业务也在增长，但我在其中的持股却缩水了。这就是区别。
I will reduce "IonQ" . I will not inject new funds until the easing stops . AeonQ's business also grew, but my stake in it shrank. That's the difference.