$IREN · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-28
IREN 是买入机会:股价 25 美元时,远期市销率为 1.3 倍,为多年来最低;说话者对其每股估值为 46 美元,认为显著低估 84%;凭借数十亿美元的累积订单,营收有望在三年内合理翻倍。风险包括 -54% 的负营业利润率、可能上升的 78.4 亿美元长期债务,以及合同续约的不确定性;它属于风险最高、波动最大的股票之一,仅适合高风险承受能力者。
逐段跳播
Iren 和 Applied Digital 属于那些因市场对单位经济性和 AI 行业可持续性的担忧日益加剧而遭受重创的 AI 公司。
Iren and Applied Digital are among the AI companies that have been hit hard by growing concerns about unit economics and the sustainability of the AI sector.
投资者担心,在未来几年支出热潮过后,会出现明显的放缓,而风险最大的公司中就包括 Iren 和 Applied Digital。
Investors are concerned that after the spending boom coming in the next few years , there will be a significant slowdown, and among the companies most at risk are Iren and Applied Digital.
不过,我认为这是一个买入机会,我最近将 Iren 和 Applied Digital 的股票评级上调为买入机会。
However, I thought it was a buying opportunity, and I recently upgraded the Iren and Applied Digital stocks to Buy Opportunities.
现在,投资者问我,既然我把这两只股票都评为买入机会,那么哪一只更适合我。这就是我将在本视频中回答的问题,我会通过几个重要指标对它们进行直接比较,并考察估值差异,以判断在当下我认为哪一只是对高风险承受能力投资者更好的投资,因为这两只股票是目前市场上风险最高的股票之一。
Now, investors are asking me which one is better for me since I have rated them both as buying opportunities. This is the question I will answer in this video, where I will compare them directly through a few important metrics, as well as look at valuation differences to determine which I see as a better investment today for investors with a high risk tolerance, because these stocks are among the riskiest in the market right now.
吸引投资者关注这两家公司的原因之一,是预计未来几年将持续的巨额营收增长。
One of the reasons that attracts investors to these two companies is the tremendous revenue growth that is expected to continue for the next few years.
而 Iren 的营收为 7.07 亿美元。未来三年,你可以合理预期这些公司的营收将比现在翻一番。这是因为它们拥有数十亿美元不断累积的订单。只要它们目前能够建成数据中心,就能从中产生营收。
and Iren generating $707 million. Over the next three years, you can reasonably expect these companies' revenues to double compared to what they are today. This is due to their having billions of dollars in accumulating orders.
They can generate revenue from data centers to the extent that they can build them at the moment.
但问题依然存在:当这些合同在两年、四年或六年后到期需要续签时,会发生什么?供需状况会维持今天这样需求超过供给,从而推高算力成本、利好那些建设、租赁或拥有这些算力资产的公司吗?还是该行业的情况会逆转,导致供给过剩,因过度建设而使价格大幅下跌?这正是投资者目前试图回答的疑问。
But the question remains: what will happen to these contracts when they are due to be renewed in two, four , or six years from now ? Will the supply and demand situation remain as it is today, with demand exceeding supply, thus raising computing costs and benefiting companies that build, lease, or own these computing assets?
Or will the situation in the sector reverse and lead to a surplus in supply, resulting in a sharp drop in prices due to over- construction? This is the question mark that investors are trying to answer right now .
投资者对该行业部分公司(包括 Iren 和 Applied Digital)感到担忧的另一个原因是单位经济性。
Another reason for investors to be concerned about some companies in the sector, including Iren and Applied Digital, is unit economics.
其中许多公司正在损失巨额净利润,更具体地说,Iren 的营业利润率为负 54%,你可以看到这个指标以紫色显示,正朝着错误的方向走。
Many of them are losing huge amounts of net profit, and more specifically, Iren achieved a negative operating profit margin of 54%, and you can see this metric in purple going in the wrong direction.
当然,当你考察那些亏损严重的公司时,资产负债表就变得更加重要。你需要知道它们有多少债务、有多少可用现金,以判断它们是否需要回头向投资者寻求更多资本,而这可能会稀释股东的持股。
Of course, when you look at companies that are losing a lot of money, the balance sheet becomes even more important. You need to know how much debt they have, and how much cash they have available, to determine whether they need to go back to investors and ask for more capital, which could dilute shareholders' stakes.
在衡量长期债务时,我们发现 I rent 的债务更多,为 78.4 亿美元。这些公司的债务很可能在未来几年增加,尽管这些公司的借款利率在过去一个月里大幅上升,但好消息是,过去一周利率略有下降。
When measuring long-term debt, we find that I rent has more, worth 7.84 billion, It is very likely that the debt of these companies will increase over the next few years, and although interest rates for borrowing by these companies have risen significantly over the past month, the good news is that they have fallen slightly over the past week.
所以,我也想看看它们资产负债表上有多少现金和短期投资,在这方面 I rent 看起来状况更好,为 76 亿美元。
So, I also wanted to take a look at how much cash and short-term investments are in their balance sheets, and here I rent looks better positioned with 7.6 billion,
既然我们已经看了业绩指标,我想接着谈估值,先从市销率(远期)开始。I rent 的股票目前的市销率为 1.3,是多年来的最低水平。
Now that we have looked at the performance metrics, I wanted to move on to the evaluation , starting with the price-to-forward sales ratio. I rent shares are trading at their lowest price-to-sales ratio in years, at 1.3.
按照这一特定指标,Applied Digital 的估值大约是 I rent 的两倍。但你可以看到,两者的远期市销率都接近历史最低水平。这也是促使我在两周前将这些股票上调为买入机会的原因之一。
Applied Digital is trading at a valuation that is roughly double that of I rent according to this specific metric. But you can see how both are trading near their record lows in terms of the price-to-sales ratio for futures.
This is one of the reasons that prompted me to upgrade these stocks to buy opportunities two weeks ago.
经过所有这些计算,我得出结论,Irent 每股价值为 46 美元。当前市场价格为 25 美元。在我看来,这只股票被显著低估了 84%。
After all these calculations, I concluded that the value of an Irent share is $46. The current market price is $25. It seems to me that the stock is significantly undervalued by 84%.
因此,两者似乎都被低估了,再次说明,这就是它们被上调为买入机会的原因。现在,要回答哪一只更好的问题,这并不是一个容易的决定。两者各有优缺点。
Therefore, both appear to be undervalued , and again, that is why they are being upgraded to a buy opportunity. Now, to answer the question of which is better, it is not an easy decision. There are advantages and disadvantages to each.
而“Any Rent”相比当前市场价格,估值更为折价。总的来说,如果我今天必须决定买哪一只,我会选择“Any Rent”,但这会是一个艰难且接近的选择。
While "Any Rent" had a more discounted valuation compared to the current market price. In general, if I had to make a decision today about which one to buy, I would choose "Any Rent", but it would be a difficult and close choice.
我把这两家都评为买入机会。没有人强迫你只在这两家公司中选一家。如果你对两者都感兴趣,可以把它们一起加入你的投资组合。
I have rated them both as buying opportunities. No one is forcing you to choose just one of these two companies. If you are interested in both, you can add them together to your investment portfolio.
但我要提醒大家,这两只股票是目前你能持有的风险最高的股票之一。所以,如果你对它们感兴趣,请确保你准备好承担这些高风险。这些股票波动极大,在任何一天或一周内都可能大幅下跌。因此,我建议只有风险承受能力高的投资者才应考虑它们。
But let me remind everyone that these two stocks are among the riskiest stocks you can own right now. So, if you are interested in them, make sure you are prepared to take those high risks.
These stocks are extremely volatile and can fall by large percentages in any given day or week. For this reason, I suggest that they should only be considered by investors with a high risk tolerance.
观察点
这个频道对 $IREN 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。