IWM 技术面受损严重且周线结构偏空，预计短期反弹，但可能在10月中旬转为下行。
逐段跳播
我们将讨论为什么这对股票很重要，然后我们会在高收益债券和罗素指数中跟踪这一关系，在那里我们看到的技术面损伤远大于标普和纳斯达克指数中所看到的。
We will discuss why this is important for stocks, and then we will follow this relationship in high-yield bonds and the Russell index, where we have seen much greater technical damage than we have seen in the S&P and Nasdaq indices.
现在，我们将从高收益债券转向股市，先从罗素指数开始。这是周线时间框架上的罗素指标。它遭受的技术面损伤远大于标普或纳斯达克指数。周期结构已转为负面。你可以看到，几周前我们跌破了那个周期支撑位，那代表了一个非常极端的向左偏移，而它现在处于负面蓄势状态并正在下行。
所以，你可以看到我们现在正进入市场下方的一些关键支撑位。这是一个我们可以观察反应的区域，但在现阶段，从支撑位反弹并不一定意味着周线结构得到修复。我们需要看到价格开始收复阻力位，并且周线动能状况改善，才能说这些损伤已被修复。
Now, we will move from high-yield bonds to the stock market, starting with the Russell index. This is the Russell indicator on the weekly timeframe. It has suffered far greater technical damage than the S&P or Nasdaq indices.
The cycle structure has turned negative. You can see that a few weeks ago we broke that support level for the cycle, and that represented a very extreme leftward bias, and it is now negatively primed and declining.
So, you can see that we are now entering some key support levels below the market. This is an area where we can look for a response , but at this stage, a bounce off support levels does not necessarily mean a fix for the weekly structure.
We need to see the price start to recover resistance, and the weekly momentum picture improve before we can say that this damage has been repaired.
现在，我们转向日线图。因此，日线图让我们看到今天这波反弹与这个更大的周线结构之间类似的区别。随着国债收益率最初下降，罗素指数今天早上大幅上涨。尽管随着国债收益率开始再次上升而从早前高点回落，它仍保留了一部分涨幅。
即使有今天的上涨，主要的技术面损伤也尚未修复。我们的价格远低于89日移动均线。我们的“反转侦察”指标和“Slim”柱都显示动能为负。你可以看到，我们得到的这波反弹与这里这个不一致的日线周期完全吻合，但这个更大的周期具有向左偏移的特征，因为它在这里见顶，并正在呈现负面形态。
我们预计这波反弹或许还会持续几天，然后最终反转，向下走向这个时间窗口。理想的日线周期时间窗口是10月8日至10月15日。
Now, we will move on to the daily chart. Therefore, the daily chart gives us a similar distinction between today's bounce and this larger weekly structure. The Russell index rose sharply this morning as Treasury bond yields initially fell.
It still retains some of that gain, despite retreating from its earlier high as Treasury yields have begun to rise again. Even with today's gains, the major technical damage has not been repaired .
We have a price that is well below the 89-day moving average. We have negative momentum with both the "Reversal Scout" indicator and the "Slim" bar. You can see that we are getting a bounce that is perfectly in line with this inconsistent daily cycle here, but this larger cycle has a leftward bias as it peaked here and is taking a negative shape.
We expect this rebound to continue perhaps for a few more days and then eventually reverse to fall towards this time window. The ideal daily cycle timing window is from October 8 to October 15.
这个频道对 $IWM 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。