IWM技术面严重受损且周线周期偏空;预计短期反弹约2天,但在结构性修复出现前,中期观点略偏空。
逐段跳播
这是周线时间框架上的罗素指数指标。它遭受的技术面损伤远大于标普或纳斯达克指数。周期结构已经转为负面。可以看到,我们在几周前跌破了周期支撑位,那本应代表一次向左的急剧反转,而它现在正呈现负面且下行的形态。
This is the Russell indicator on the weekly timeframe. It has suffered far greater technical damage than the S&P or Nasdaq indices. Oh, the cycle structure has turned negative.
You can see that we broke the cycle support level a few weeks ago, and that would have represented a sharp reversal to the left, and it is now taking a negative and declining shape.
可以看到,我们正在接近市场下方的一些关键支撑位。这是一个我们可以观察反应的位置,但在现阶段,从支撑位反弹并不意味着周线结构得到修复。我们需要看到价格开始收复阻力位、周线动能状况改善,才能认为损伤已被修复。
Well, you can see that we are approaching some key support levels below the market. This is an area where we can look for a response, but at this stage, a bounce off support levels does not mean a fix for the weekly structure.
We need to see the price start to recover resistance and the weekly momentum picture improve before we can consider the damage repaired.
日线图让我们对当日的反弹与更大的周线结构之间做出类似的区分。罗素指数今早大幅上涨,因美国国债收益率最初下跌。尽管随着债券收益率再度开始上升,该指数已从先前高点回落,但它仍保留着部分涨幅。
The daily chart gives us a similar distinction between the day's bounce and that larger weekly structure. The Russell index rose sharply this morning as Treasury yields initially fell.
It still retains some of that gain, despite falling back from its previous peak as bond yields have begun to rise again.
即便有今天的上涨,重大的技术面损伤仍未修复。价格远低于89日移动均线。同时,"Reversal Scout"和"Slim Ribbon"两个指标都显示动能偏负。
Even with today's rise, the major technical damage has not been repaired . We have a price that is well below the 89-day moving average. We have negative momentum with both the "Reversal Scout" and "Slim Ribbon" indicators.
可以看到,我们正获得一次与这里这个异步日线周期完全吻合的反弹,但这个更大的周期是一次向左的反转,已在此处见顶,并处于负面形态。
You can see that we are getting a bounce that was perfectly in line with this asynchronous daily cycle here, but this larger cycle is a reversal to the left and has peaked here and is in a negative formation.
我们预计这轮反弹或许还会持续两天,然后最终回落至这个时间窗口。这个日线周期的理想时间窗口是8/10至15/10。
We expect this rebound to continue for perhaps another two days and then eventually fall back towards this time window. The ideal timing window for this daily cycle is from 8/10 to 15/10.
标普500指数在技术面上仍具建设性,但在这些指标之下,我们看到罗素指数和道指出现了更为显著的恶化。
The S &P 500 remains technically constructive, but beneath these indicators, we have seen a much more significant deterioration in the Russell and Dow indices.
罗素指数中期仍略微看跌,短期则只是中性。我们再次看到今天出现反弹,这足以将其在近期推升至略高的水平。
The Russell index remains slightly bearish in the medium term and only neutral in the short term. Once again, we saw that bounce back today, and that was enough to push it to a slightly higher level in the near term.
这个频道对 $IWM 的历次判断
Steve Miller 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。