JPM 已从近期高点回落约 9%，但年内仍小幅上涨，目前正从 326 支撑区域反弹，动能有所改善；与利率相关的基本面情况好坏参半，在明日财报公布前，预计只会小幅上移几个点，而不会出现大幅趋势性行情。
逐段跳播
就整体预期以及我们近期看到的 JPMorgan 走势而言，你看到了什么？坦率地说，它已经回落了。我想我刚才说错了，是从近期高点回落了9%。所以，它确实回落了，但今年迄今仍略微上涨。
What are you seeing as far as just overall expectations and and the recent trends we've seen for JPMorgan that frankly has pulled back. I believe I misspoke, 9% from the recent highs here.
So, has pulled back, but still does remain slightly higher on the year.
嘿，Jenny。这是那种风向标股票之一。我的意思是，它拉开了财报季的序幕。金融股一直是市场关注的焦点，显然是因为收益率，但这正是 JPMorgan Chase 一直在感受的那种此消彼长，因为随着收益率略微下降，它们开始出现一点反弹，而且它的走势几乎与比如10年期收益率的走势相反。
Hey, Jenny. You know, this is one of those bellwethers. I mean, this is kicking off the earning season. The financials have been largely in focus, obviously because of yields, but that's been kind of the give-and-take that JPMorgan Chase has been feeling because as yields have come down just a little bit, they're starting to see a little bit of a rally, and it's moving in almost oppositional movement to those 10-year yields, for instance.
但你在这张图上看到了一点反弹。这是一张一年期的日线图，尽管50周期移动均线有点走平转下，但它正从我们此前见过被测试的326支撑区域获得一点反弹。事实上，就在上一次财报前后，以及再往前两次财报前后，都测试过这个位置。
But you see a little bit of a bounce here on this chart. This is a one-year daily chart, even though the 50-period moving average is rolling over a bit, getting a bit of a bounce off of that 326 support area that we've seen tested previously.
In fact, tested right around the last earnings and the two earnings previous to that.
RSI 正从那个低位反转区回升，开始有点转向上行，所以动能略有增强。Jenny，我觉得真正有意思的是，这只股票的隐含波动率已经开始有点回落了。这通常是这只股票在财报公布前的趋势，因为它是这个周期里较早公布财报的，但这种波动率往往会在财报公布前就消退得快一些，而不是一直等到财报公布后才骤降，Jenny。
The RSI kind of coming off of that lower reversal zone, starting to turn back up a little bit, so getting a little bit of a momentum gain. What I thought was really interesting, Jenny, is the fact that implied volatility for this name has already started to roll over a little bit.
That's typically a trend for this stock ahead of earnings announcements because it is kind of that early announcement in the cycle, but that volatility tends to bleed off a little bit faster before the announcement comes out, not just waiting till that announcement and then crashing, Jenny.
当然。从基本面角度来看，我认为，这将是财报中声明的一部分，连同它们的前瞻指引，也就是它们对收益率状况的评估，利率不仅会对它们的资产管理规模产生什么影响，还会对它们的贷款业务、信用卡业务、汽车贷款业务，以及所有那些要么产生、要么减少利息收入的其他业务产生什么影响。
所以，考虑到利率所处的位置以及前瞻展望，我认为结果会是好坏参半。
Sure. You from a fundamental standpoint, I mean, I think, you know, that's going to be part of the statement that comes out in the earnings announcement with their forward guidance is what their assessment is of that yield situation, what those interest rates are going to do not only to their assets under management, but to their lending business and to their credit card business and auto loan business and all of those other things that either generate or uh take away those interest payments.
And so, I think it's going to be mixed bag just given where those rates are and what the forward outlook is.
话虽如此，从方向上看，我认为它在这里会有一点小幅上行的倾向，鉴于那点反弹以及可能向上移动几个点的可能性。我的意思是，这不是一只在财报时会有大幅波动的股票，至少在过去一年里，它在财报公布时从来没有出现过明显的上涨或下跌。
是的，它有过大幅波动的交易日，但并没有真正导致显著的趋势变化，比如向上跳空，Jenny。
That being said, from a directional standpoint, I mean, I think it has a little bit of a drift higher here just given that bit of a bounce and the possibility of moving, you know, maybe a few points to the upside.
I mean, this is not a huge mover on earnings and it never really has been at least over the course of the last year has not had significant moves up or down on those earnings announcements.
Yeah, it's had big range days, but it hasn't really resulted in significant trend changes like gaps to the upside for instance, Jenny.
是的，我要说的是，当你看很多这类图表时，尤其是 JPM，它并不是一只经常跳空或波动极大的股票，我的意思是，这至少在某些方面是有好处的。
Yeah, I will say that when you look at a lot of these charts, especially JPM, it's not exactly a gappy or of a hugely volatile chart, which is I mean, to some to some benefit at least.
但就目前交易 JPM 的方式而言，举个例子，这显然是风向标，是最大的那只。Jamie Dimon 对整体经济状况非常直言不讳。那么，当你考虑在财报前交易这家公司的方式时，你会关注什么？
But so as far as now ways to trade JPM for example purposes, this is obviously the bell bellwether, the big one. Jamie Dimon very much vocal on the state of the the broader economy.
And so, what do you watch for when you look at ways to trade this company into earnings?
嗯，鉴于市场对波动的预期并不高，波动率相对较低，而且已经开始下降。我当时在看一个潜在的日历价差策略，利用本周、也就是财报公布当周隐含波动率略有升高这一点，我对那个波动有一个偏空的预期。
同时我预期它会从220、326附近的支撑位小幅上行漂移到大约335，这个位置此前曾是阻力位。现在，上方大约343水平有一个阻力位，但这个335看涨期权行权价的日历价差，预期如果股价略有移动，可能会小幅上行，但它也利用了这样一个事实：如果我们确实向那个水平漂移，并在明天这份财报公布时接近那个335行权价。
这是一个入场成本相对较低的交易，净支出1.45美元，在这种情况下，我可能希望以大约净支出50%的收益平仓。所以，大约72美分，整体大约217美元退出这笔交易，Jenny，我并不一定打算把这笔交易持有到理论最大收益。
Well, given the fact that there's you know, not a huge expectation for movement and volatility relatively low, already starting to go down. I was looking at a potential calendar spread taking advantage of a little bit of elevated implied volatility here in this week that the current week of ex of earnings, the announcement and you know, I've got a short expectation here for that movement.
And looking for a little bit of an upward drift from where it's coming off of that support around the 220 326 level up to about 335, which has been a resistance before. Now, we've got a resistance overhead around that 343 level, but this calendar spread at the 335 call strike expects potentially a drift slightly higher if the price of the stock moves a little bit, but it also takes advantage of the fact that if we get kind of a drift towards that level and into this earnings announcement tomorrow, we end up getting anywhere near that 335 strike.
This is a relatively low cost to enter trade, a buck 45 net debit, and looking potentially here in this case to get out with about 50% of that net debit as a gain in the trade.
So, about 72 cents, about 217 overall to exit the trade, not necessarily looking to taking this to max theoretical gain, Jenny.
这个频道对 $JPM 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。