KGC 技术面看涨强劲；若突破 500 美元，股价可能升至 630–645 美元。
逐段跳播
好的，KG。从这张图上我可以看到，在 Jason 于春季把这只股票介绍给我们之后，我们在 6 月大幅上涨，但我们已经从那些水平大幅回落。那么，你在这里的技术分析中看到了什么？
Okay, KG. As I can see in this chart, we rose significantly during June after Jason brought this stock to our attention in the spring, but we have fallen significantly from those levels.
So, what do you see in the technical analysis here?
我认为，就技术分析而言，在我们今天讨论过的所有图表中，这是最好的公司最好的图表。我们是否看到该股涨到约637美元然后下跌？是的。不过，如果我们看一年的日线图，会发现从最高价到最低价实际上是一次50%的回调，并在300美元附近找到了支撑。
去年这个时候，我们记录到的是更高的高点和更低的低点。我们现在看到的是下跌。我们能够利用200日移动均线作为价格吸引区，买方试图入场，而他们现在已经成功在次级下跌趋势中突破了20日、50日和200日移动均线——如果我们看这个杯形形态的高点的话。
我们也在试图突破这一水平。因此，这是一个相对积极的信号。在到达那些高点之前，我们还有一段价格缺口。在550美元到大约610美元之间存在一个价格缺口。这也是一个可能影响价格的因素。
不过，如果我们看周线图，会发现强劲的看涨信号，因为在这次强劲突破之前，我们看到过去大约两年到两年半的时间里经历了一段盘整期。我们再次看到一次50%的向下反转，利用50周移动均线作为支撑区，此前已突破200周移动均线或20周移动均线（蓝色那条）。
这也是一个强劲的看涨信号。底部的MACD指标似乎即将向下突破并转为上行形态，因为12周指数移动均线正上穿26周指数移动均线。我们上一次做这个分析时，股价上涨了约500%。我不是说这次也会这样，但MACD交叉时的长期图表往往比一些短期图表表现出更好的连续性。
这张图看起来是向上的。如果它成功突破500，价格可能会回到630或645附近。好的，Jason。因此，KGC是这张图表中最乐观的情景。
I believe this is the best chart for the best company in terms of technical analysis, out of all the charts we have talked about today. Did we see the stock rise to around $637 and then fall?
Yes. However, if we look at the daily chart for a year, we will find that it was actually a 50% correction from the highest price to the lowest price, and there we found support around the $300 level .
At this time last year, we were recording higher highs and lower lows. We are now witnessing a decline. We were able to take advantage of the 200-day moving average as a price attraction zone, and buyers tried to enter, and they have now managed to break above the 20, 50 and 200- day moving averages in the secondary downtrend, if we look at the peaks of this cup pattern.
We are also trying to break through this level. Therefore, this is a relatively positive indicator. We still have a price gap before reaching those peaks. There is a price gap between $550 and approximately $610.
This is a factor that may also influence the price. However, if we look at the weekly chart, we will find strong bullish indicators , because we have seen a period of consolidation over the past two or two and a half years or so before we have seen this strong breakout.
Once again, we are seeing a 50% downward reversal , taking advantage of the 50-week moving average as a support zone, after breaking through the 200-week moving average or the 20-week moving average (in blue).
This is also a strong bullish indicator. The MACD indicator at the bottom appears to be about to break down and turn into an upward pattern as the 12-week exponential moving average crosses the 26-week exponential moving average .
The last time we performed this analysis, the stock price rose by approximately 500%. I'm not saying this will happen this time, but long-term charts at MACD crossovers tend to show better continuity than some short-term charts.
This graph looks upward. If it manages to break above 500, the price may return to around the 630 or 645 level . Okay, Jason. Therefore, KGC is the most optimistic scenario in this chart.
那么你会怎么交易这只股票？作为一名交易者，我喜欢处于这样一种仓位：如果价格上涨我能获利，如果价格保持稳定我能获利，如果价格下跌我们仍然能赚一些。因此，我把这只股票看作一个卖出看涨期权的策略。
我持乐观态度，但我不需要价格上涨，我只需要它不要跌太多。所以，如果我们看2026年11月20日的到期日，我在考虑买入一份行权价为340的看跌期权，然后卖出一份行权价为350的看跌期权。
我喜欢350看跌期权的地方，如图表所示，是它位于10日和20日移动均线下方，具体来说是在我注意到正在形成较低底部的那个位置。因此，我认为价格不会跌破那里。你将获得2美元的净收益。
你支付4美元作为成本，卖出350看跌期权时获得6美元的权利金。也就是说，你以10美元的风险保证金获得2美元的净收益。这意味着20%的潜在回报。这些数字比我之前解释的那两个数字更好。
你还有安全边际。因此，在这道边际受到威胁之前，股价可能下跌约90点，甚至100点。你有43天，期间没有财报或任何重要消息，而这些可能增加市场波动并导致下跌。因此，我认为这是一种简单有效的方式，可以利用看涨图表，而不需要价格上涨。
但如果它上涨，那就太好了。无论市场方向如何，你都将保持获利的仓位。我们这笔交易的盈亏平衡点是348。即使下跌约3%，我们在这笔交易中仍有安全边际。
So how will you trade this stock? Well, as a trader, I like to be in a position where I can make a profit if the price goes up, if it stays stable, and if it goes down, we can still make some profit.
Therefore, I view this stock as a sell-call option strategy. I am optimistic, but I don't need the price to go up , all I need is for it not to go down too much. So, if we look at the expiry date of November 20, 2026, I am thinking of buying a put option at a strike price of 340 and then selling a put option at a strike price of 350.
What I like about the put option at 350, as shown in the chart, is that it is below the 10 and 20-day moving averages, specifically at the point where I noticed a lower base forming.
Therefore, I don't think the price will fall below that. You will receive a net profit of $2. You pay $4 as a discount and $6 as a credit when you sell the put option at 350. That is, you get a net profit of $2 against a risk margin of $10.
This means a potential return of 20%. These numbers are better than the previous two numbers I explained. You also have a safety margin. Therefore , the stock price may fall by approximately 90 points , or even 100 points, before this margin is threatened.
Well, you have 43 days, and there are no earnings reports or any important news, and this could increase market volatility and lead to a decline. Therefore, I believe it is a simple and effective way to take advantage of the bullish chart, without the need for the price to rise.
But if it goes up , that's excellent. You will remain in a position to make a profit regardless of the market direction. Well, our break-even point in this deal is 348. Even with a drop of approximately 3%, we have a safety margin in this deal.
观察点
这个频道对 $KGC 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。