KLA目前相对说话者的模型被高估；在188美元价位回报不足，应等待更低价格。
逐段跳播
在过去五年里。因此，这家公司在实现营收、利润和自由现金流的大幅跃升方面，可能不如其他公司那么出色。资本回报率非常出色。过去五年每年40%，去年每年37%。
over the past five years. Therefore, this company may not be as great in terms of achieving a significant leap in revenue, profits, and free cash flow as other companies. Excellent returns on capital. 40% annually over the past five years, and 37% annually last year.
各位，看。看看这个利润率。过去十年30%，过去五年33%，去年35%。所以，它并不是那种爆发式的大幅增长。我喜欢它更平稳、更稳定。
Hey guys, look. Look at this profit margin. 30% over the past ten years , 33% for the past five years, and 35% last year. So, it's not like it's exploding with massive growth. I liked that it was calmer and more stable.
他们支付的股息消耗了约10亿美元的自由现金流。我们来看看这八大支柱。好。那么，六个“错误”标记。各位，我在想，这家公司是否仅仅因为AI而获得了溢价，而不是因为它看起来比其他AI公司更稳定。
They pay dividends that consume about $1 billion of their free cash flow. Let's take a look at the eight pillars. Good. So, six "wrong" marks. Guys, I'm wondering if this company is getting a premium price just for AI versus the fact that it seems more consistent than other AI companies.
因为五年市盈率和五年自由现金流市现率是这里仅有的“错误”标记。其他一切都是“正确”标记。他们在过去五年里回购了近12%的股份。
Because the five- year price-to-earnings ratio and the five-year free cash flow price-to-cash-flow ratio are the only "wrong" signs here. Everything else is a "check" mark. They have repurchased nearly 12% of their shares in the past five years.
利润增长稳定且可接受，未来四年几乎翻倍，从550增长到1015。这是非常好的每股收益增长。至于营收，增长稳定。营收增长为180亿、210亿、240亿、280亿和320亿美元。未来四年每年都是两位数增长。
Stable and acceptable growth in profits, nearly doubling from 550 to 1015 over the next four years. This is very good growth in earnings per share. As for revenues, there is steady growth. $18, $21, $24, $28, and $32 billion in revenue growth.
Double- digit growth every year for the next four years.
各位，你们知道我们现在要做什么。我们会把它放进我们的股票分析工具里。好，各位，我们来看看这家公司未来十年的情况。
You know what we have to do now, guys. We will put it into our stock analysis tool . Okay guys, let's take a look at this company over the next ten years.
我在营收增长预测上更为保守。我选择了6%、9%和12%的百分比。对于利润率和自由现金流利润率，我用了相同的数字。26、29和33。
I was more conservative in my revenue growth estimates. I chose percentages of 6 , 9, and 12%. For profit margin and free cash flow margin, I used the same figures. 26, 29, and 33.
我选择的数字低于所有这些，假设他们的利润会略有下降，尽管它们非常稳定。
I chose numbers lower than all of these, assuming that they would decline slightly in their profits, even though they were very stable.
接下来是盈利倍数。各位，资本回报率高且稳定。这是一家资产负债表强劲的高质量企业。我会给出17、20和23。另一个原因是我钦佩他们所处的领域。他们提供的服务是其他所有人都在回避的，因为其他所有人都试图专注于高利润的芯片行业。
Next, the earnings multiple. Guys, high and consistent returns on capital . This is a high-quality business with a strong balance sheet. I would put 17, 20 , and 23. The other reason is that I admire the field they work in.
They are providing a service that everyone else is avoiding because everyone else is trying to focus on the high-margin chip sector .
最后，我的9.5%回报率，该股目前为188。我按下了分析按钮。我得到了50的低价、130的高价和83的平均价。
Finally, my 9.5% return, the stock is currently at 188. I pressed the analyze button. I got a low price of 50, a high price of 130, and an average price of 83 .
所以各位，我就在这只股票上等着。这离我的数字差得远。我是说，一切都是红色的。平均假设是负的。即使按我的高假设，我们也只能得到5.5%的回报。所以对我来说，我会再等一段时间。
So guys, I'm just waiting on this stock . This is far from my numbers. I mean, everything is red. The average assumptions are negative. Even with my high assumptions, we only get a 5.5% return . So for me, I'll wait a little while.
这个频道对 $KLA 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。