KLAC凭借高增长和股息提升,是一项强劲的长期投资与科技押注,尽管其估值较板块高出37%。
逐段跳播
我们将转向半导体板块,这些巨头在幕后运作,悄然主导着人工智能设备的供应链,却很少被谈论,尽管它们为投资者提供了科技板块中增长最快的股息支付之一。这就是芯片测试与测量之王KLA Corporation。交易代码是KLAC。
We will move on to the semiconductor sector with the giants who work behind the scenes and quietly dominate the supply chain of artificial intelligence devices, yet are rarely talked about even though they offer investors one of the fastest growing dividend payouts in the technology sector.
These are the kings of chip testing and measurement, KLA Corporation. The trading symbol is KLAC.
这实际上是 BlackRock 上一季度规模最小的一笔收购,仅新增 5400 万美元的新股,而其他几笔收购的规模都达到数十亿美元。
This was actually BlackRock's smallest acquisition of $54 million in new shares added in the last quarter, while the other acquisitions were in the billions of dollars.
不过,仅 BlackRock 在 KLA 的持股总额就达到 380 亿美元,因为多年来它一直是 BlackRock 最喜欢加仓的科技股之一。
However, BlackRock's stake in KLA alone amounts to $38 billion in total, as it has always been one of BlackRock's favorite technology stocks to increase its investment in over the years.
这笔最新收购的时机恰到好处,因为 KLA 在过去十年里一直蓬勃发展,直到最近遭受重大打击,股价较峰值下跌了约 40%。
This latest acquisition comes at an opportune time, as KLA had been thriving for the past decade before recently suffering a major blow that saw it lose about 40% of its value from its peak.
这是由一波市场恐慌推动的,投资者担心芯片设备出现周期性放缓,也持续担忧美国的出口限制,尤其是对中国的限制,甚至还有华尔街对科技巨头在整个人工智能热潮初期支出的恐慌。
This was driven by a wave of market panic, as investors worried about a cyclical slowdown in chip equipment, as well as ongoing concerns about US export restrictions, specifically to China, and even Wall Street panic over the initial spending by tech giants on the entire AI boom.
但 BlackRock 在这只股票下跌时仍持续投入如此多资金,可能的原因就在这里。首先,KLA 的竞争护城河极其强大。
But here's the likely reason why BlackRock continues to pour so much money into this stock when it's down, regardless. First, KLA's competitive trench is extremely strong.
然而,这些先进的人工智能处理器集成了数百亿个微小的晶体管,要在没有任何微观缺陷的情况下制造它们几乎是不可能的。如果在晶圆厂的晶圆上发现哪怕一粒微小的灰尘或微观缺陷,他们最终可能损失价值数百万美元的受损硅片。
这正是 KLA 的用武之地,它制造高精度的电子束光学检测设备,以纳米级扫描晶圆,在晶圆被封装之前检测出任何缺陷。
However, with these advanced AI processors packed with tens of billions of microscopic transistors, manufacturing them without any microscopic defects becomes virtually impossible.
If even a tiny speck of dust or microscopic defect is found on a wafer in a foundry, they could end up losing millions of dollars worth of damaged silicon. This is where KLA comes in, which manufactures high-precision optical inspection machines with electron beams that scan wafers at the nanometer level to detect any defects before the wafers are encapsulated.
事实上,KLA 控制着全球整个半导体工艺监测市场的一半以上。如果这样想的话,它充当着整个半导体行业的关键支付网关。
In fact, KLA controls more than half of the entire global semiconductor process monitoring market. It serves as a key payment gateway for the entire semiconductor industry, if you think about it that way.
例如,去年 KLA 实现了近 136 亿的销售额,比上年增长约 12%。其中大约 50 亿直接转化为纯净利润。
Last year, for example, KLA achieved sales of nearly 13.6 billion, an increase of about 12% over the previous year. Well, approximately 5 billion of that amount was converted directly into pure net profit.
更重要的是,分析师预计明年销售额将进一步加速增长,营收增长超过 33%,而净利润将在未来两年内升至 100 亿以上,创下新的纪录水平。
More importantly, analysts expect sales to accelerate even further next year, with revenue growth exceeding 33%, while net income will rise to more than 10 billion in the next two years, setting new record levels.
所有这些不断上升的财务指标,正是他们能够如此大幅提高股息派发的原因。现在,从表面上看,初始股息率显得非常小,只有约 0.5%。但由于派息率仅为约 20%,未来仍有充足的空间继续提高股息,而这正是我们迄今为止从他们身上看到的——在连续 16 年增长的基础上,增长率接近 18%。
All these rising financial indicators are the precise reason behind their ability to increase their dividend payouts by such a large amount. Now, on the surface, the initial dividend yield looks very small, at only about half a percent.
But with a small distribution rate of only about 20%, there will be plenty of room to continue increasing it over time, which is exactly what we have seen from them so far with a growth rate of nearly 18% over 16 years of consecutive increases.
大约 10 年前,这只股票的交易价格还不到每股 7 美元。如果按他们目前每股支付的 92 美分股息计算,这相当于约 13.5% 的股息率。也就是说,如果你在 10 年前买入这只股票,你现在每年将获得超过 13% 的股息,此外还有股价本身的巨大涨幅。
About 10 years ago, this stock was trading at less than $7 per share. Well, if we take the 92 cents they currently pay as dividends per share, that translates to a dividend yield of about 13.5 percent.
That is, if you bought this stock 10 years ago, you would now receive dividends of more than 13% every year, in addition to the huge increase in the stock price itself.
对于股息增长型股票,你通常希望企业也能高速增长。这正是 KLA 所做的。它是一家增长非常高的公司,就像我们今天将要谈论的所有其他股票一样。但当你再加上不断增长的股息派发时,你谈论的就是惊人的投资回报。
With dividend growth stocks, you typically want a business that also grows at high rates. Well, that's exactly what KLA does. It is a very high-growth company, just like all the other stocks we will be talking about today.
But when you add to that growing dividend payouts, you're talking about phenomenal investment returns.
出于这些原因,我认为这只股票非常适合长期投资。我认为它本身就是对未来技术的一笔绝佳押注,而当你再加上那些不断增长的现金股息作为额外收益时,它看起来非常强劲。
Well, for these reasons, I think this stock is very strong for long-term investment. I think it's a great bet on future technology in and of itself, and when you add those growing cash dividends as a bonus, it looks very strong.
我并不是说这会在短期内发生,因为我认为人工智能的需求巨大,但另一个担忧是,即使在 KLA 出现股价下跌之后,估值仍然相当高。即便按更宽容的、将增长考虑在内的市盈率相对盈利增长比率(PEG)来衡量,该股的交易价格仍比行业板块高出约 37%。
I'm not saying this will happen anytime soon, because I think there's huge demand for artificial intelligence, but the other concern is that even after the price drop we saw in KLA, the valuation is still fairly high.
The stock is trading at about 37% more than the sector even on a more forgiving price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) basis, which takes growth into account.
出于这些原因,在看到名单上的其他选项之前,我暂时把它放在中间位置的第三名,但我完全理解 BlackRock 为什么会在其股价低迷时买入这只股票,因为它是一项根本性的技术押注,也是一只股息增长型股票。
For these reasons, I'll put them in third place in the middle for now until we see the other options on the list, but I certainly understand why BlackRock would buy this stock when its price was low as it's a fundamental technology bet and a dividend growth stock.
这个频道对 $KLAC 的历次判断
Ale's World of Stocks 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。