$KO · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-11-01
可口可乐今年以来涨幅超过31%，仍是高信心买入标的：公司上调指引，营收增长至少5%、每股收益增长至少9%、自由现金流至少130亿美元，销量增长5%，且2027年起生效的肯德基合作也构成利好。上调后的现金流估算给出96美元公允价值，对比92美元，因此估值合理；同时提到约26倍的远期市盈率对比20倍，以及消费支出压力，但对长期投资者而言，优秀企业以合理价格买入是一笔好交易。
逐段跳播
Coca-Cola 公布了季度财务业绩，营收增长7%，而或许最令人印象深刻的是销量增长了5%，这证明人们正在购买更多的 Coca-Cola 产品，而不只是价格上涨带来的结果。
Coca-Cola announced its quarterly financial results showing revenue growth of 7%, and perhaps most impressively, a 5% increase in unit sales volume, proving that people are buying more Coca-Cola products, and it's not just a result of higher prices.
业绩非常好，以至于 Coca-Cola 的管理团队上调了对2026年剩余时间的预测，现在预计营收增长至少5%，每股收益增长至少9%。管理团队还表示，他们今年将产生至少120亿美元的自由现金流。我应该说，今年是130亿美元的自由现金流。
The results were so good that Coca-Cola's management team revised its forecasts for the remainder of 2026, now expecting revenue growth of at least 5% and earnings per share growth of at least 9%.
The management team also stated that they will generate at least $12 billion in free cash flow this year. I should say $13 billion of free cash flow for this year.
得益于这些出色的业绩，Coca-Cola 的股价上涨并不令人意外，而且自年初以来已经上涨了至少31%。当然，我对此感到高兴。全年我一直将 Coca-Cola 股票评为极佳的买入机会。所以，看到公司在2026年取得成功，我很欣慰。
It is no surprise that Coca-Cola's stock has jumped thanks to these excellent results, and has already risen by at least 31% since the beginning of the year. Of course, I'm happy about that.
I have rated Coca-Cola stock as an excellent buying opportunity throughout the year . So, I am pleased to see the company succeed here in 2026.
因此，在这些亮眼的业绩之后，我修订了对 Coca-Cola 的预测，想在这里与你们分享这些细节，并告诉大家，在股价已经上涨这么多之后，我是否仍然认为 Coca-Cola 股票目前是一个买入机会。
So, after these amazing results, I have revised my forecast for Coca-Cola and wanted to share those details with you here and update you on whether I still think Coca-Cola stock represents a buying opportunity at this time, even after the stock price has already risen so much .
因此，密切关注 Coca-Cola 的华尔街分析师也上调了对 Coca-Cola 每股收益的预期。2025年时，华尔街分析师预测 Coca-Cola 未来几年的每股收益增长约为5.5%，而他们现在已将这些预期上调至未来几年每股收益增长7.4%。
Therefore, analysts on Wall Street who follow Coca-Cola closely have also raised their estimates for Coca-Cola's earnings per share. Since 2025, when Wall Street analysts were predicting Coca-Cola's earnings per share growth of about 5.5% over the next few years, they have now revised those expectations upward to 7.4% earnings per share growth over the next few years.
如果你问我对于 Coca-Cola 未来几年每股收益增长的估计，我会说更接近8%或9%，而不是更接近7%或6%。
If you were to ask me for my estimate of Coca-Cola's earnings per share growth over the next few years, it would be closer to 8% or 9% rather than closer to 7 % or 6%.
公司在执行其商业计划方面做得非常出色。记住，如果你还没看到新闻头条，他们刚刚赢得了一个大客户 KFC，从 Pepsi-Cola 手中抢了过来。他们现在拥有这一独家合作关系，为其中数千家门店提供服务。这一合作关系将于2027年开始。
The company has done a great job in implementing its business plan. And remember, if you haven't seen the headlines, they just won a major customer, KFC, snatching it from Pepsi-Cola.
They now have this exclusive relationship to serve thousands of those sites. This relationship will begin in 2027 .
因此，Coca-Cola 正在取得巨大进展，尤其是在餐厅、公园、电影院等户外消费渠道。Coca-Cola 在这些类别中拥有很强的市场份额。
Therefore, Coca-Cola is making great strides, especially in out-of-home sales channels such as restaurants, parks, cinemas, and others. Coca-Cola has a strong market share in these categories.
然而，由于关税以及导致油价上涨的战争，消费者预算正承受压力，个人收入的增长速度没有跟上基本生活成本的上涨，迫使人们做出艰难的决定。如果消费者支出下降，Coca-Cola 的业务可能会受到显著影响。
However, consumer budgets are under pressure as a result of tariffs and the war that has caused oil prices to rise , and personal income has not risen at the same rate as the cost of basic living, forcing people to make difficult decisions.
If consumer spending declines, Coca-Cola's business could be significantly affected.
Coca-Cola 在2026年的走势几乎是一条持续直线上涨的趋势，不是吗？我知道上涨之路一直反复震荡，但大多数股票的涨跌幅度都比 Coca-Cola 大得多。Coca-Cola 年初时小幅下跌，跌至约65美元。
此后，走势几乎是一路上涨，股价现在为92美元，自年初以来上涨超过31.6%，再加上股息，到2026年底回报率可能接近40%。
Coca-Cola's success in 2026 was almost a continuous and direct upward trend , wasn't it? I know the road up has been choppy, but most stocks experience much stronger ups and downs than you see with Coca-Cola, which started the year slightly in the red, dropping to around $65.
Since then, the trend has been almost straight up, and the stock is now at $92, up more than 31.6% since the start of the year, plus dividends that could raise returns to nearly 40% by the end of 2026.
对 Coca-Cola 来说，这是非常强劲的一年。如果我持有 Coca-Cola 股票，我会对每年10%的股价涨幅加上10%的股息回报感到满意。我会觉得，相对于我承担的风险，我获得了很好的回报，而 Coca-Cola 的风险相对低于市场上大多数股票。
This is a very strong year for Coca-Cola. If I owned Coca-Cola shares, I would be happy with a 10% annual return on share price gains plus a 10% dividend payout. I would feel that I am getting a great return for the risk I am taking with Coca-Cola, which is relatively less risky than most stocks in the market.
因此，一年接近40%的回报率，对 Coca-Cola 股票投资者来说相当于一年赚到了四年的利润。因此，股价上涨也带来了估值的上升。Coca-Cola 的利润并没有随股价上涨而同步增长，正如我之前解释或与你们分享的那样。
管理层预计2026年每股收益增长9%，而其股价已上涨超过30%。因此，价格先于利润，这造成了更昂贵的估值。
Therefore, a return rate approaching 40% in one year is equivalent to four years' worth of profits in one year for Coca-Cola stock investors. Thus, an increase in the share price also leads to an increase in valuation.
Coca-Cola's profits have by no means increased in line with the rise in its share price, as I explained or shared with you earlier. Management expects earnings per share to grow by 9% in 2026, while its share price has risen by more than 30%.
Therefore, price precedes profit, and this creates a more expensive valuation.
该股开始交易时的远期市盈率约为20倍。现在其远期市盈率约为26倍。
The stock started trading at a forward P/E ratio of around 20. It is now trading at a forward P/E ratio of around 26.
同样，我曾表示，由于业绩比我上次对公司估值时估计的更好，我将修订对 Coca-Cola 2026年及以后自由现金流的估计。因此，我上调了自由现金流估计，现在我计算出的股票公允价值为96美元，而当前市场价格为92美元。
Similarly, I stated that I would be revising my estimates for Coca-Cola's free cash flow for 2026 and beyond, as performance has been better than I estimated the last time I valued the company.
Therefore, I have raised my free cash flow estimates, and I now calculate the fair value of the stock at $96 compared to the current market price of $92.
总体而言，我认为基于综合评估，Coca-Cola 股票的估值看起来是合理的。正如我提到的，全年我一直将 Coca-Cola 股票评为高确信度、高信心的买入机会。今天，我重申了这一评级。
它是世界上最杰出的公司之一，而且交易价格合理。我一直说，当你能以合理的价格买到一家优秀的企业时，这对长期投资者来说就是一笔好交易。
Overall, I would say that Coca-Cola stock appears to be fairly valued based on a comprehensive assessment. As I mentioned, I have rated Coca-Cola stock as a buy opportunity with a high level of conviction and high level of confidence throughout the year.
Today, I reaffirmed this classification. It is one of the most distinguished companies in the world and is traded at a fair price. And I always say that when you can get an excellent business at a fair price, it's a good deal for long-term investors.
这个频道对 $KO 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。