快手是具有吸引力的非对称买入机会；核心业务相对现金流被低估，可灵AI的价值未反映在股价中，可灵分拆是潜在催化剂。
逐段跳播
另一家中国互联网公司，快手。7个月前当Barry以66买入它时，我做了一个视频。现在股价是30。它是仅次于TikTok的全球第二大短视频平台。它有4亿日活跃用户，平均8亿月活跃用户。
它是一家盈利能力很强的公司，市盈率为7倍，此外，它还拥有“Kling AI”，这项业务在亏损，但以每年200%的速度增长，而且人人都在用。这给利润率带来压力，但公司仍然盈利。他们刚刚以180亿美元的估值融资28亿美元，用于Kling AI，该公司预计明年上市，他们仍持有该公司68%的股份。
这相当于120亿。与市值相比，那是港元。你为核心业务10亿的现金流支付40亿。这就是在阿里巴巴和腾讯这类公司投资的地方你所得到的。所以，这里肯定有什么不对劲。是谁的错？是对人工智能的过度热情，还是视频制作太便宜？
因为Kling AI在增长，是的，它需要大量投资以及一切，但如果它上市，如果人工智能和这些不断发布的模型真的奏效，并且好莱坞使用它们，那么收入将会蓬勃发展。如果人工智能成功，它将极具价值。
但如果你把核心业务分拆出来，它的成本会低得多，利润会高得多，市盈率仅为105亿。仅这一项就等于150亿。把150亿加上Kling，就等于300亿。这比我们目前的交易价格高得多。
所以，主要问题是，我看着这个，也看着人工智能，每个人都热爱人工智能和模型，他们就是为此付钱。然后你在这里免费得到它。这个世界上的疯子是谁？在下面评论区告诉我。人们可能会说：“是的，它会以400上市，然后6年后会像快手一样以30交易。”
那么，你投资30亿在这样的东西上就是疯了。考虑到累积的价值，这是一个既有风险又有正回报的押注。从母公司分拆可能是2027年的一个催化剂。如果他们能作为低成本的中国平台引领AI驱动的视频编辑，无论他们提供什么。如果你想在你的投资组合中下注，这是值得的。
Another Chinese internet company, Kuaishou. I made a video 7 months ago when Barry was buying it for 66. The stock price is now at 30. It is the second largest short video platform in the world after TikTok.
It has 400 million daily users, and an average of 800 million monthly users . It is a highly profitable company , with a price-to-earnings ratio of seven, and furthermore, it owns "Kling AI," which is losing money, but is growing at a rate of 200% annually and is used by everyone.
This puts pressure on profit margins, but the company remains profitable. They just raised $2.8 billion at an $ 18 billion valuation for Kling AI, which is supposed to go public next year, and they still own 68% of the company.
That is equivalent to 12 billion. Compare that to the market value, and that's in Hong Kong dollars. You are paying 4 billion for 1 billion in cash flow from the core business.
This is what you get where companies like Alibaba and Tencent invest. So, there's definitely something wrong here. Who is at fault? Is it excessive enthusiasm for artificial intelligence or the cheapness of video production?
Because Kling AI is growing, yes, it requires a lot of investment and everything, but if it goes public, and if the AI and these models—which are constantly being released— actually work, and Hollywood uses them, then revenues will flourish.
If artificial intelligence succeeds , it will be extremely valuable. But if you separate the core business, its costs will be much lower, and it will be much more profitable, with a price-to-earnings ratio of just 10.5 billion.
That alone equals 15 billion. Adding the 15 billion to Kling, that equals 30 billion. This is much more than what we are currently trading. So, the main question is, I look at this and at artificial intelligence, everyone loves artificial intelligence and models and they simply pay money for it.
Then you get it here for free. Who is the madman in this world ? Let me know in the comments below. People might say, "Yes, it will go public at 400 and then after 6 years it will trade at 30 like Kuaisho."
Well, then you'd be crazy to invest 3 billion in things like that . Given the accumulated value, this is a bet with both risks and positive returns. The separation from the parent company could be a catalyst in 2027.
If they can lead as a low- cost Chinese platform for AI- powered video editing, whatever they offer. If you want to bet within your portfolio, this is something worthwhile.
观察点
这个频道对 $KSHTY 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。