Lumentum 作为 AI 光通信瓶颈环节，兼具高风险与高上行空间；尽管远期市盈率达 58 倍且近期大涨，150% 的盈利增长使其 PEG 低于 1，因而值得小仓位配置。
逐段跳播
现在我们转向那只可能在所有股票中上涨潜力最大的股票。第五只股票是Lumintum，其交易代码是LITE。但巨大的上涨伴随着风险。这无疑是名单上风险最高的股票。
Now we move on to the stock that is likely to have the greatest upside potential of all of them. The fifth stock is Lumintum, and its trading symbol is LITE. But a great rise comes with risks.
This is easily the highest-risk stock on the list.
Lumentum 生产用于在人工智能基础设施中传输海量数据的光学和光子技术。随着 AI 集群持续扩大，铜缆无法解决所有通信问题。在更长的距离和更高的带宽要求下，对光学的需求会增加。
Lumentum manufactures optical and photonic technologies used to transmit massive amounts of data across artificial intelligence infrastructure . As AI clusters continue to grow, copper cannot solve all communication problems.
At longer distances and higher bandwidth requirements, your need for optics increases.
至于 Lumentum，它在上一季度实现了 10 亿美元的收入。但看看管理层对下一季度的预测，区间在 12.2 亿美元到 12.75 亿美元之间。非 GAAP 营业利润率为 40%。
调整后每股收益区间为 4.05 美元到 4.35 美元。
As for Lumentum, it achieved revenues of $1 billion in its last quarter. But look at management's forecast for the next quarter, which ranges between $1.22 billion and $1.275 billion.
The non-GAAP operating margin is 40%. The adjusted earnings per share range from $4.05 to $4.35.
政府特别强调了 1.6 太字节光模块和光电路交换的日益普及。这个市场可能会变得极其庞大。花旗最近估计，光电路交换市场到 2030 年可能达到约 110 亿。
The administration highlighted in particular the increasing adoption of 1.6 terabyte optical modules and optical circuit switching. This market could become extremely large. Citi recently estimated that the optical circuit switching market could reach around 11 billion by 2030.
由于 Lumentum 和 Coherent 被定位为关键供应商，这就是为什么“Lite”或者说 Lumentum 被加入了名单。但我在它旁边打了一个大大的星号。
With Lumentum and Coherent positioned as key suppliers, that's why "Lite" or Lumentum has joined the list. But I put a big star next to it.
该股出现了巨大的上涨。转到 Edge 的网站，你可以看到该股在过去仅仅十二个月里惊人地上涨了 560%，目前正处于新的历史高点。它从 Edge 获得 70 的评级。
The stock has seen a tremendous rise. Moving on to Edge's website, you can see that the stock has risen by an astonishing 560% in just the past twelve months, and is now at a new record high. They receive a rating of 70 from Edge.
Mark，你怎么可能想在这里买入这只股票？这是我经常被问到的问题。不要，我重复一遍，不要仅仅根据一只股票近期的表现就做出投资决定。
Okay, Mark, how can you possibly want to buy this stock here? It's a question I get asked all the time. Do not , and I repeat, do not make investment decisions based solely on the recent performance of a stock.
与此同时，我并没有忽视这一走势，因为最大的涨幅通常也伴随着更高的预期和高估值。因此，我们仍然需要判断这是否是一笔好的买入交易。
At the same time, I am not ignoring that move because the biggest moves also usually come with increased expectations and high valuations. Therefore, we still need to determine whether this is a good purchase deal or not.
因此，我把它视为一项风险更高、潜在回报也更高的投资。我不会给“Lite”分配与主要持仓相同数量的资金。我只给它分配一小部分仓位。
Therefore, I treat this as an investment with higher risk and a higher potential return. I don't allocate the same amount of capital to "Lite" as I do to the primary holding. I allocate a small amount of space to it .
明年的盈利预计将增长 150%，达到每股 18.58 美元，使该股的远期市盈率达到 58 倍。所以，这绝不是一只便宜的股票，但在 150% 的增长下，市盈率相对盈利增长比率仍远低于一，这很有意思。
Earnings for next year are expected to grow by 150% to $18.58 per share, giving the stock a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 58 times. So, it is by no means a cheap stock , but with 150% growth, the price-to-earnings- to-growth ratio remains well below one, which is interesting.
但与此同时，这种市盈率超过 50 倍的估值伴随着很高的预期，这就是为什么如果你决定投资这只股票，就应该预期到波动。
But at the same time, this type of valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 50 times, comes with high expectations, and that is why you should expect volatility if you decide to invest in this stock.
所以，这就是我对十月的论点。AI 团队已经变得如此庞大，以至于视觉通信已成为关键基础设施的另一个瓶颈。Lumentum 正好处在这一趋势的正前方。
So, this is my thesis for October. AI teams have become so large that visual communication has become another bottleneck for critical infrastructure. Lumentum is positioned directly in front of this trend.
然后是 Lumintum，它是人工智能的光学瓶颈。
Then there's Lumintum, which is the optical bottleneck of artificial intelligence.
这个频道对 $LITE 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。