$LITE · Schwab Network · 2026-10-27
对 Lumentum 谨慎乐观：营收增长 109.3%，而 EPS 仅上修 4.32%，股价 30 天内下跌 13.12%，可能带来反弹；负债权益比接近 0.36，显示自我造血能力。图表结构具建设性——买方在 200 日均线处回归，RSI 转向上行，MACD 金叉可能在未来几周带来不错结果——但必须收于 865 的 20 周均线上方，且只有突破 1085 才可能再涨 250 美元、迈向 1250–1300。
逐段跳播
Lumentum 的事情。这代表 2026 财年第四季度同比增长 109.3%。他们的收入状况，也就是他们的营收调整，增长了 4.32%。尽管我们的股价在那 30 天期间下跌了 13.12%。
matter of Lumentum. This represents a year-on-year increase of 109.3% in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2026. Their income position, i.e. their revenue adjustment, increased by 4.32%.
Although our shares fell 13.12% in that 30- day period.
所以，这就是我在寻找的背离。销售额增长超过 13%，但 EPS 只被上调了略高于 4%。这种背离告诉我，我们有可能看到反弹或反转。
So, that's the divergence I'm looking for. Sales up more than 13% , but EPS revised a little over 4%. This divergence is telling me that we could potentially see a bounce or turnaround.
当然，还有那个负债权益比，我把它和自由现金流放在一起看，因为我们需要更加关注债券市场影响股票的方式。这个比率大约在 0.36。所以，我们希望看到较低的负债权益比，这让我确信他们是在用自己的收入融资，而不是靠借贷。
And of course, that debt-to-equity ratio, which I'm adding alongside free cash flow, because we need to pay more attention to the way the bond market is affecting equity. That was around 0.36.
So, we want to see a low debt-to-equity ratio , which assures me that they are financing their own income rather than borrowing.
所以，这实际上是 AI 叙事的一部分。我知道我们经常谈论这个，但这是市场和盈利修正背后的主要原因。
So, this is actually part of that AI narrative. I know we talk about this a lot, but this is the main reason behind the market and earnings correction.
Lumentum 今天上涨了 6%。是的，我们会保持相对简单。让我们回顾今年 2 月。当时我们看到一个清晰的上升趋势或上升通道，支撑位和阻力位都非常明确。这只股票这样交易了大约两个半到三个月，之后停滞并跌破 20 日和 50 日均线。
股价随后跌至 200 日均线，在那里停留了 2 天后，出现了激进的买盘，形成了一次短期反弹。
Lumentum is up 6% today. Yes, we'll keep it relatively simple. Let's look back to February of this year. There we saw a clear upward trend or ascending channel , where support and resistance levels were very well understood.
The stock traded like that for about two and a half to three months , after which it stalled and fell below the 20- and 50- day moving averages. The stock then fell to the 200- day moving average and after staying there for 2 days , it saw aggressive buying that created a short-term bounce.
这再次形成了另一个上升通道，持续约两个半到三个月，期间出现更高的高点和更高的低点，但随后价格再次下跌。现在，我们重新审视 200 日均线。我们在那里待了大约 2 天。买家已经进场，我们现在正处于那个阶段。该股今日上涨约 6%。
Once again, this creates another upward channel for about two and a half to three months , where higher highs and higher lows are seen , but then the price falls again. Now, we re-examine the 200- day moving average.
We were there for about 2 days. Buyers have come forward and we are at that stage now. The stock is up about 6% in today's session.
你看到的是之前通道的支撑区，现在正充当阻力区。大约在 900 美元。如果突破这个位置，你可以看 50 日和 20 日均线。如果突破那之上，你将关注支撑或阻力的上限，大约在 1100 美元。
What you are seeing is the support area of the previous channel, which is now acting as a resistance area. It is around $900. If it crosses this, you can look at the 50 and 20- day moving averages.
If you break above that, you will be looking at the upper limit of support or resistance, which is around $1,100.
现在，你可以对这只股票稍微更乐观一些。RSI 看起来已经触底并正在向上移动。MACD 再次转向。过于急躁是不对的，但在当前水平小幅投资以期待 MACD 金叉可能是合理的，如果发生，未来几周可能带来不错的结果。
Now, you can be a little more optimistic about this share. The RSI looks like it has reached a low and is moving upwards. The MACD is turning again. It would be wrong to rush too much, but it may be reasonable to invest a little at the current level in anticipation of a MACD cross , which if it happens could yield good results in the next few weeks.
现在，看周线图，我看到这只股票一些相当有趣的东西。显然，如果你回顾 2025 年 4 月，该股股价大约在 57 美元。当时没人真正关注它，然后你开始看到 AI 的影响，显然它很快就进入了上升趋势。
Now, looking at the weekly chart, I see something quite interesting for this stock. Obviously, if you look back to April 2025, the stock was trading at around $57. Nobody really bothered with it, then you started to see the impact of AI and obviously it's been on an upward trend pretty quickly.
但我们这里有一种杯柄形态，一个特定的杯柄形态，50 周均线充当支撑区。20 周均线现在充当阻力。看 RSI，我们看到一个下降趋势，而 MACD 在这里给出略微看跌或看跌的信号。
But we have a kind of cup and handle, a specific cup and handle pattern here, with the 50- week moving average acting as a support area. The 20- week moving average is now acting as a resistance.
Looking at the RSI, we see a downward trend , while the MACD is giving a slightly bearish or bearish signal here.
你需要突破 20 周均线，即 865。我们现在正在该位置交易。你必须收在该位置之上，才能在本周末确认。你还可以在成交量分布中看到，过去 3 年左右，890 附近区域出现了显著的成交量。
You need to get above that 20- week moving average , which is 865. We are trading on it now. You must close on it to be sure by the end of the week. You can also see in the volume profile that there has been significant volume in the area around 890 over the last 3 years or so.
对此持谨慎乐观态度。如果你回去，重新测试 1085 水平并突破，你可以预期从那里开始的上升趋势再增加 250 美元。12，比方说从 1250 到甚至 1300 美元。
Cautiously optimistic about this matter. If you go back, retest the 1085 level and breakout , you can expect another $250 increase in the upward trend from there. 12, let's say from 1250 to maybe even 1300 dollars.
所以归根结底，这实际上是一张非常有建设性的图表。虽然长期来看在某些地方显得疲软，但如果你能在周线基础上收复其中一些关键均线，我认为你可以对它稍微更乐观一些。
So at the end of the day, this is actually a really constructive chart. While it looks weak in some places in the long term, if you can recapture some of those key moving averages on a weekly basis , I think you can be a little more optimistic about it.
好的。就我们现在看到的，Momentive 上涨 6.5%，报 871.02，他们 11 月 5 日有财报事件，所以这可能是近期的一个潜在催化剂。
Okay. As we see it now, Momentive is trading up 6.5% at 871.02 and they have an earnings event on November 5th, so this could be a potential catalyst in the near future.
观察点
这个频道对 $LITE 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 2 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。