$LITE · Meet Kevin · 2026-10-29
Lumentum是颇具吸引力的AI光子学标的，是一个仍处于起步阶段的巨大机会；在Marvell的收购中其股价应会上涨，而Marvell的股价短期内会下跌。营收增长1.8倍，毛利润增长2.7倍，利润率41%，显示出定价能力；亏损是一次性的债务偿还。只有保持这一增长，上行空间才成立，而博通和Marvell更便宜。
逐段跳播
另一家公司叫 Lumintum，代码是“lite”，考虑到他们在光纤激光器领域的工作，这很贴切。你明白吗？光。总之。这是一家价值 830 亿美元的公司。这就是 Lite 股价上涨的原因。
Another company is called Lumintum, whose code is "lite," which is fitting given their work in the field of optical fiber lasers. Do you understand? Light. Anyway. It is a company worth $83 billion. That's why Lite's stock is rising .
你可能会认为这让 Nvidia 对光纤持怀疑态度。不，Nvidia 向 Marvell 投资了 20 亿美元，向 Lumintom 投资了 20 亿美元。两家加起来。Nvidia 的总投资是 40 亿美元。
You might think this makes Nvidia skeptical of fiber optics . No, Nvidia has invested $2 billion in Marvell and $2 billion in Lumintom. In both of them together. Nvidia has a collective investment of $4 billion.
然后你有一个泵浦光的装置，一个发光的器件，对吧？Lumentum 制造那些器件。好吗？那我们就可以买 Lumentum，它泵浦光。
Then you have something that pumps light, a device that emits light, right ? Lumentum makes those devices. Okay? We could then buy Lumentum, which pumps light.
我也对 Lumentum 非常兴奋，而且我有点恼火，因为我们在会员直播里谈到了 Lumentum，我当时在说我有多喜欢它们、对它们有多感兴趣，但我还没确信自己想买。所以我有点犹豫和胆怯，还没买它们的股票，现在因为这笔收购，它们的价格已经涨了 10%。
I'm also really excited about Lumentum, and I'm a little annoyed because we were talking about Lumentum on the session members' livestream , and I was talking about how much I like them and how much I'm interested in them, but, you know, I wasn't convinced I wanted to buy yet.
So, I was a bit hesitant and cowardly , and I didn't buy their stock yet, and now their price is up 10% because of this acquisition.
当然，这没关系。但我们当时在谈 Lumentum，因为光纤这件事才刚刚开始。我认为它还处于起步阶段。我知道有些人在说：“哦，太晚了。”
Of course, you know, it does n't matter. But we were talking about Lumentum because this fiber optic thing is just getting started . I think it's still in its infancy. I know some people are saying, "Oh, it's too late ."
Lumentum 是一家制造公司。所以，通过收购 Lumentum，Marvel 也将获得它目前不具备的制造能力，这相当了不起。
Lumentum is a manufacturing company. So, by acquiring Lumentum, Marvel will also gain manufacturing capabilities it doesn't currently possess, which is quite remarkable .
很明显，Marvell 的股价会下跌，而 Light 的股价会上涨。每次有收购都会这样，因为 Marvell 没有钱。他们可没有 830 亿美元摆在那里。他们大约有 60 亿美元现金，就这么多。
所以，这笔交易只能靠债务和股权融资来完成，这会稀释股票价值。没错，Light 的资产负债表上也会有一些现金，但并不多。他们有 38 亿美元的票据，以及 34 亿美元的现金和应收账款。
所以，在他们 800 亿美元的市值里，并没有现金。因此，要在 Marvell 完成这笔交易，就必须承担债务并发行股票。所以，是的，Marvell 的股价短期内会下跌。但他们正在打造一个巨无霸。这太了不起了。
Obviously, Marvell's stock will go down, and Light's stock will go up. That's what happens every time there's an acquisition because Marvell doesn't have the money. Well, they don't have $83 billion stacked up.
They have about $6 billion in cash. That's it. So, it's going to be done through debt and equity. That's going to dilute the stock value. Yeah, Light will have some cash on its balance sheet too, but not a lot, man.
They have $3.8 billion in bills and $3.4 billion in cash and receivables. So, there's no cash in their $80 billion market capitalization . So, you're going to have to take on debt and issue equity to do this at Marvel .
So, yeah, Marvel's stock is going to go down in the near term. But they're building a behemoth . That's amazing.
总之，这对 AI 热潮中的光子学来说是一个巨大的机会，就像内存领域发生过的情况一样。所以，出现了这波热潮，而自从我们做了那次分析以来，这只股票已经跌了很多。我当时觉得它便宜，但那时候它其实有点贵。
所以，在过去四周里，这只股票跌了一些。我说过，按 1.2 倍的市盈率来看，还有更便宜的选择，比如 Broadcom 和 Marvel，它们实际上更便宜。不过，我说过，如果它能保持这种增长，就仍然有上涨潜力，而且随着我看到的“硬件 2.0”到来，它应该会涨得更高，你知道，在伊朗那件事之后。
他们的净收入增长了 1.8 倍，毛利润增长了 2.7 倍。所以，这里说的是巨大的定价权。他们的运营费用只增长了 14%，利润率是 41%。这真的很诱人。是的，我们在这里录得了一笔亏损。
我们为什么亏损？是因为偿还债务。所以，你得忽略右边这些破东西。这是一次性的。
Oh, anyway, this is a huge opportunity in photonics for the AI boom, just like what happened with memory. So, there's been this boom , and the stock has dropped a lot since we did that analysis.
Oh, and I thought it was cheap, but it was a bit pricey back then. So, in the last four weeks, the stock has dropped a bit. Oh, I said at a P/E ratio of 1.2, there are cheaper options like Broadcom and Marvel, they're actually cheaper.
However, I said this still has upside potential if it can maintain this growth, and it should go higher with the "hardware 2.0" I see coming, you know , after the situation in Iran.
They're seeing net revenue grow 1.8x, and gross profit up 2.7x. So, you're talking about massive pricing power here. Their operating expenses are up only 14%, and their profit margins are 41%.
That's really tempting, man. Yes, we recorded a loss here. Why did we lose that ? It was because of debt repayment. So, you've kind of got to ignore this crap over here on the right. It's a one-off.