$LITE · Parkev Tatevosian, CFA · 2026-10-30
LITE 是买入标的，但信心和把握相对较低，因为该股在 2026 年已大幅上涨。上季度营收增长 109%，管理层预计下季度最高增长 130%，未来几年 EPS 预计增长超过 100%，营业利润率从 2024 年的 -25% 改善至 18%；25 倍的远期市盈率看起来有吸引力，DCF 对 LITE 的估值为 1058 美元，而现价为 915 美元。宏观/AI 方面的担忧会压制短期表现，EPS 增长可能在 2029-2030 年前后趋于稳定，但说话者预期长期成功，风险回报值得承担。
逐段跳播
Lumentum，交易代码为 LIT，宣布其最近一个财季营收增长了109%。该公司受益于超宽带计算公司采用光通信技术的趋势，而这正是这家公司所擅长的领域。
Lumentum, whose trading symbol is LIT, announced a 109% increase in revenue in its most recent fiscal quarter. The company benefits from the trend among ultra-wideband computing companies to adopt optical communication technologies, a category in which this company excels.
管理层预计这些积极业绩将会延续，预测下一季度营收将实现类似增长，同比平均增幅最高可达130%。Lumentum 的股价预计在2026年上涨超过143%，这并不令人意外。
Management expects these positive results to continue, forecasting similar revenue growth for the next quarter, averaging up to 130% year-over-year. It's not surprising that Lumentum's stock is expected to rise by more than 143% here in 2026.
这是我归类为2026年值得投资者买入的被低估的AI股票之一。
This is one of the undervalued AI stocks that I've categorized as a buy for investors in 2026.
所以，现在投资者在问我，在这个新高价位上我怎么看这只股票？还有买入机会，还是已经太晚了？那么，让我们一起看看这家公司的业务，回顾近期业绩，与长期业绩进行比较，然后评估它在今天折现现金流模型中的估值，以判断对于希望把握这轮前所未有的AI支出热潮的投资者来说，它是否仍是一个买入机会。
So, now investors are asking me, what do I think of the stock at this new high price level? Is there still a chance to buy, or is it too late? So, let’s take a look at the business together, review recent performance, compare it to long-term performance, and then evaluate the valuation it made today in the discounted cash flow model to determine whether it is still a buying opportunity for investors looking to take advantage of this unprecedented boom in AI spending.
所以，不只是公司管理层对其前景感到乐观。跟踪 Lumentum 的华尔街分析师预计，其每股收益在未来几年将增长超过100%。
So, it's not just the company's management team that's optimistic about its prospects. Wall Street analysts who follow Lumentum expect its earnings per share to grow by more than 100% over the next few years.
这并非只是一个季度或一年的现象。这项业务正在蓬勃发展，并且很可能在未来几年持续如此，尤其是随着使用这些数据中心的企业计算需求不断增长、转向更多光通信。随着营收增长，公司的盈利能力也在扩大。
It is not just a phenomenon for a quarter of a year or a year. This business is thriving and is likely to continue to do so for several years to come, especially as the increasing computing needs of companies using these data centers shift towards more optical communications.
As its revenues grow, the company's profitability also expands.
当我看到公司营收大幅增长，而在这个案例中，这家企业的营收增长超过100%，那么这种营收增长是在加速的，不是吗？甚至二阶导数也在上升。
When I see companies growing their revenues significantly, and in this case, the revenue of this business is growing by more than 100%, then this revenue growth is accelerating, isn't it? Even the second derivative is increasing.
在最近一个财季，公司实现了109%的增长，而下一季度他们预计平均增长130%。所以，我们面对的是一家营收快速增长、利润率不断扩大的企业。
In its last fiscal quarter, the company achieved growth of 109%, and in the next quarter they expect growth of 130% on average. So, we have a business characterized by rapid revenue growth and expanding profit margins.
其营业利润率已从2024年的-25%改善至过去12个月的18%。因此，在我看来，这似乎是一家对其产品和服务的需求正在有机增长的企业。
Its operating profit margins have improved from -25% in 2024 to 18% over the past 12 months. Therefore, this seems to me like a business that is experiencing an organic increase in demand for its products and services.
这个判断不容易站得住脚，不是吗？我们环顾四周就能看到，人工智能方面的支出正在飙升，而在数据中心上花钱的公司并没有采取保守的支出策略。他们想要买到能拿到的最有效、最先进、最新的技术。
目前，光解决方案和光连接是同类服务中最能最大化数据中心潜力的。
That assessment isn't easy to justify, is it? We can look around and see that spending on artificial intelligence is skyrocketing, and companies that are spending on data centers are not taking a conservative approach to their spending.
They are looking to buy the most effective, most advanced, and latest technology they can get their hands on. Currently, optical solutions and optical connections are the best service of their kind to maximize the potential of your data center.
资产负债表状况也比2026年时更好，当时公司约有32.5亿美元的长期债务。他们用掉了一部分现金流，现在已将债务削减近一半，至16.5亿美元。其现金余额和短期投资总额现在超过27亿美元。
The balance sheet is also in a better position than it was in 2026 when the company had approximately $3.25 billion in long-term debt. They used up a portion of their cash flow and have now cut their debt by almost half to 1.65 billion.
Their total cash balance and short-term investments now amount to more than 2.7 billion.
因此，如果公司选择这样做，它可以用现金和短期投资偿还全部债务。但我认为这没有必要。我认为你不需要这么做。公司有一些债务并不是坏事，尤其是当债务成本相当有吸引力时，Lumentum 的情况正是如此。
Therefore, if the company chooses to do so, it can use its cash and short-term investments to pay off all of its debt. But I don't think this is necessary. I don't think you need to do that.
It is not a bad thing for your company to have some debt, especially if the cost of that debt is reasonably attractive, which is the case for Lumentum.
公司业务强劲，人工智能蓬勃发展，所以贷款方并不要求很高的利率才愿意借钱给 Lumen Technologies。
The company has a strong business, and artificial intelligence is booming, so lenders are not asking for very high interest rates to lend money to Lumen Technologies.
最后，我想看看估值。从25倍的远期市盈率开始看，对于一家营收增长超过100%的公司来说，这看起来便宜得离谱。一家预计未来几年每股收益增长超过100%的公司。
Finally, I wanted to look at the evaluation. Starting with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25, this looks ridiculously cheap for a company whose revenues are growing by more than 100%.
A company that expects earnings per share to grow by more than 100% for the next few years.
在我看来，这家公司目前的远期市盈率为25倍，对长期投资者来说是非常有吸引力的估值。当然，这项业务具有周期性。每股收益现在正在繁荣增长，并且很可能在未来几年继续繁荣，但之后大概率会趋于稳定。
不是在2026年，不是在2027年，甚至可能也不是在2028年，而是也许从2029年开始，也许在2030年，每股收益增长大概率会趋于稳定并回归其长期平均水平，因为我怀疑这家公司能达到接近100%的每股收益增长率。
Seeing this company trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25 seems to me a very attractive valuation for long-term investors. Of course, there is a cyclical nature to the work.
Earnings per share are booming now and will probably boom for the next few years, but will then most likely stabilize. Not in 2026, not in 2027, and probably not even in 2028, but perhaps starting in 2029, and perhaps in 2030, earnings per share growth will most likely stabilize and return to its long-term average, as I doubt the company will achieve an earnings per share growth rate approaching 100%.
今天，我还更新了公司的贴现现金流估算，并上调了我对公司从今天起以及非常长期内将产生的自由现金流金额的预期。在我更新计算之后，我估算这家公司的价值为1058美元。当前市场价格是915，所以即使应用安全边际之后，用这一指标来看，这只股票似乎也被低估了。
Today, I also updated the company's discounted cash flow estimates, and raised my expectations for the amount of free cash flow the company will generate from today onwards and into the very long term.
After my updated calculations, I estimated the value of the company at $1058. The current market price is 915, so even after applying the margin of safety, the stock appears to be undervalued using this metric as well.
所以，正如我提到的，我在整个2026年都将这只股票评为买入机会，我上一次更新是在2026年5月18日。今天，我重申对Lumen股票的买入评级，但信心程度相对较低、确信程度也相对较低，因为股价在2026年已经大幅上涨。
So, as I mentioned, I rated the stock as a buy opportunity throughout 2026, and my last update was on May 18, 2026. Today, I reiterate my buy rating for Lumen stock with a relatively low conviction level and a relatively low confidence level, because the stock price has already risen significantly in 2026.
宏观经济面临的逆风以及围绕人工智能的种种疑问，让我对短期有些担忧。但长期来看，我认为这家公司会表现良好，而且我认为今天买入这只股票的投资者，在权衡风险与回报之后，会发现这是一笔值得的投资。
The headwinds facing the macroeconomy and the question marks surrounding artificial intelligence leave me with some concerns about the short term. But in the long run, I think this company will do well, and I think investors who buy the stock today, when comparing the risks to the returns, will find it a worthwhile investment.