LRCX 在下跌 7.4% 后并未被高估；远期市盈率从 27 降至接近 25，设备需求旺盛意味着这轮抛售无需担忧。CEO 预计 2027 年支出将超过 2000 亿美元，高于 2026 年的 1500 亿美元，主要由 DRAM、先进制程和 NAND 带动，支撑 2026-2027 年强劲表现，甚至可能延续至 2028 年，但市场已将其定价为周期接近尾声。
逐段跳播
一些财报已经公布，包括 Lam Research 的财报。
Some earnings announcements have been released , including those from Lam Research,
我接下来要谈的公司是 Lam Research。Lam Research 已经公布了财报。遗憾的是，股价下跌了约7.4%。我之前一直在跟踪市盈率，未来十二个月的预期市盈率大约在27倍。
我认为这次下跌之后，我们会看到它接近25倍。所以它并没有被高估，尤其是在我们听到 TSMC 宣布将继续投资之后。我们也听到 ASML 这样的公司确认，市场对设备的需求依然旺盛。
所以在我看来，我不是 Lam Research 的股东，但根据我们目前听到的情况，没有必要为这次抛售担心。有些公司的利润和营收超出了预期，但幅度并不大，所以也许是市场的期望过高了。
就预期而言，其中值比平均预期高出约1亿美元。我认为一些半导体设备公司相对于正常估值获得了略微偏高的估值，这就是我们看到这次小幅下跌的原因。我不认为7%是夸张的，尤其是这只股票自年初以来已经上涨了约41%。
因此，在这次下跌之后，我们预计仍会有接近30%的涨幅，这很了不起。
The next company I want to talk about is Lam Research . Lam Research has announced its earnings. Unfortunately, the stock price has fallen by approximately 7.4%. I was tracking the price-to-earnings ratio before this, and the projected ratio for the next twelve months was around 27.
I think that after this drop, we will see it closer to 25. So , it is not overrated, especially after we heard TSMC announce that it will continue to invest. We have heard companies like ASML confirm that the market is still experiencing high demand for equipment.
So, as far as I'm concerned, I'm not a shareholder in Lam Research, but based on what we've heard so far, there's no need to worry about this sale. Some companies have exceeded profit and revenue expectations, but not by a large margin, so perhaps the market was expecting too much.
As for expectations, at the midpoint they were about $100 million higher than the average expectations . I think some semiconductor equipment companies have received slightly inflated valuations compared to normal valuations, and that's why we're seeing this slight decline.
I don't think 7% is an exaggeration, especially since the stock has risen by approximately 41% since the beginning of the year. Therefore, we are expected to see a rise of nearly 30% after this decline, which is impressive.
至于 Lam Research，其 CEO 表示，芯片制造设备支出预计将在2027年超过2000亿美元，而2026年约为1500亿美元。他指出，增长的主要驱动力是动态随机存取存储器（DRAM），其次是先进芯片制造技术，然后是 NAND 存储器。
无论如何，我认为设备市场在2026年，也就是2027年，将迎来又一个强劲的年份，2028年可能也是如此。然而，市场似乎正在以经济周期接近尾声的方式来给这只股票定价。
As for Lam Research, its CEO stated that spending on chip manufacturing equipment is expected to exceed $200 billion in 2027 , compared to approximately $150 billion in 2026. He pointed out that the main driver of growth is dynamic random access memory (DRAM), followed by advanced chip manufacturing technologies , and then NAND memory .
In any case, I think the equipment market will have another strong year in 2026 , i.e. in 2027, and possibly in 2028 as well. However, the market seems to be pricing the stock as if the economic cycle is nearing its end.