$LRCX · Mark Roussin, CPA · 2026-10-27
LRCX 财报后的抛售是过度反应,对长期投资者而言是礼物;营收增长约 54%,营业利润率约 40%,但约 86 亿美元的 12 月指引令人失望,且占营收约 35% 的中国业务将大幅下滑。在 AI 设备长期需求具吸引力的背景下,他只在约 22 倍 2027 年盈利或更低时才会坚决买入。
逐段跳播
这就引出了第三只股票,Lam Research,股票代码LRCX。这是今天名单上最有趣的公司之一,因为它刚刚公布了财报。尽管实现了非常强劲的财务业绩,该股仍面临巨大的抛售压力。
但对我们长期投资者来说,这是一份礼物,也是短期的过度反应。
This brings us to the third stock, Lam Research, with the ticker symbol LRCX. This is one of the most interesting companies on today's list because it has just announced its earnings .
Despite achieving very strong financial results, the stock came under significant selling pressure. But for us as long-term investors, this is a gift and an overreaction in the short term.
当投资者想到半导体行业时,通常关注设计芯片的公司,如Nvidia、AMD、Broadcom等。但该行业还有另一个极其重要的部分,那就是制造这些先进芯片所需的设备。这就是Lam Research的用武之地。
Lam开发用于半导体制造的设备。其技术涉及钻孔和沉积等工艺。这些工艺对于生产越来越先进的半导体至关重要。
When investors think about the semiconductor industry , they typically focus on companies that design chips, such as Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and the like. But there is another part of the industry that is extremely vital, and that is the equipment needed to manufacture these advanced chips.
This is where Lam Research comes in. Lam develops equipment used in semiconductor manufacturing. Its technologies are involved in processes such as drilling and sedimentation. These processes are essential for the production of increasingly advanced semiconductors.
Lam Research的一些最大客户是谁?Micron、SK Hynix和Taiwan Semiconductor,仅举几例。因此,随着所有这些公司努力增加产能,对先进制造设备的需求正在增加。
Lam Research处于有利地位,可以从这些投资中受益。
Who are some of Lam Research's biggest clients ? Micron, SK Hynix, and Taiwan Semiconductor, to name a few . Therefore, as all these companies strive to increase their production capacity, the demand for advanced manufacturing equipment is increasing.
Lam Research is well-positioned to benefit from these investments.
现在,让我们看看该公司在10月21日再次公布的最新财务业绩。公司报告截至9月的季度收入接近82亿美元。这较上年同期增长约54%。调整后收益为2.20美元。营业利润率达到约40%。
想想看。我们谈论的是一家半导体设备公司,季度收入超过80亿美元,营业利润率接近40%。这些数字令人印象深刻。
Now, let's take a look at the latest financial results that the company announced again on October 21. The company reported revenues of nearly $8.2 billion for its quarter ending in September.
This represents an increase of approximately 54% compared to the previous year. Adjusted earnings amounted to $2.20. Operating margins reached approximately 40%. Think about it.
We are talking about a semiconductor equipment company that generates more than $8 billion in quarterly revenue with operating margins approaching 40%. Those are impressive figures .
然而,公司股价在公告后下跌。你可能想知道,为什么会这样?因为华尔街关注的是未来预期。管理层预计12月季度收入约为86亿美元。尽管这代表了进一步增长,但投资者期望更多。
However, the company's stock fell after the announcement. You might wonder, why did that happen? Because Wall Street was focused on future expectations. Management projected revenues of approximately $8.6 billion for the December quarter.
Although this represents additional growth, investors were expecting more.
管理层讨论了可能在短期内限制出货的供应链限制,给我的印象这只是时间问题。但情况肯定并非完全乐观。中国仍对公司构成风险。中国市场销售约占Lam 9月季度收入的35%,但管理层预计12月季度这一贡献将大幅下降。所以,对此存在合理的担忧。我不想忽视这些担忧。
Management discussed supply chain constraints that may limit shipments in the near term, giving me the impression that it is just a matter of timing. But the situation was certainly not entirely rosy .
China still poses a risk to the company. Sales in China accounted for about 35% of Lam's revenue in the September quarter, but management expects a significant decline in that contribution during the December quarter.
So, there are legitimate concerns about this . I don't want to ignore those concerns.
但以下是使情况有趣的地方。尽管基础业务刚刚公布了创纪录的收入和利润,股价却在下跌。现在,这并不自动意味着该股被低估,但它确实创造了一个机会,来审视投资者是否对公司的长期前景变得过于悲观。
But here's what makes the situation interesting. The stock is falling even though the underlying business has just posted record revenues and profits. Now , this does not automatically mean that the stock is undervalued, but it does create an opportunity to examine whether investors have become overly pessimistic about the company’s long-term prospects.
我相信半导体设备制造商在未来几年有一个有吸引力的机会,因为对AI计算的需求不仅创造了对更多芯片的需求,还创造了对制造这些芯片所需设备的需求。
I believe that semiconductor equipment manufacturers have an attractive opportunity over the next few years, because the demand for AI computing not only creates a demand for more chips, but also creates a demand for the equipment needed to manufacture those chips.
现在来看我的“Edge”网站,可以看到“Lam Research”的股价在过去十二个月里仍上涨了51%,即便在财报公布后出现大幅抛售、股价下跌超过10%之后也是如此。不过,你可以在右侧看到,“Edge”评分仍稳定在接近78分。
Now turning to my "Edge" site, we can see that shares of "Lam Research" are still up 51% over the past twelve months , even after the large sell-off that followed the earnings announcement, in which the stock fell by more than 10% .
However, you can see on the right that the "Edge" points are still steady at a score close to 78.
展望2027年,Lam Research的每股收益预计将增长65%,对应未来市盈率略低于24倍,我觉得这很有意思。这不算一生难遇的好买卖,但如果股价继续跌到22倍左右或更低,我肯定会在2027年之前买入。
Looking ahead to 2027, Lam Research's earnings per share are expected to grow by 65%, giving it a future price-to-earnings ratio of just under 24, which I find interesting. It's not the deal of a lifetime, but if the stock continues to fall to around 22 times or less, I will definitely buy before 2027.
分析师仍看好该股,给出每股375美元的12个月目标价。这意味着,平均而言,较当前水平有超过50%的潜在上涨空间。但以下是我应对它的方式。我认为“Lam Research”是一家高质量公司,所处行业具有有吸引力的长期需求。
在最近的抛售之后,我开始对当前估值越来越感兴趣。对于不只想投资单纯设计AI芯片的公司的投资者来说,我认为Lam Research值得认真考虑。
Analysts remain bullish on the stock, setting a 12-month price target of $375 per share. This means, on average, a potential increase of more than 50% from current levels. But here's my approach to dealing with it .
I believe that "Lam Research" is a high-quality company operating in an industry with attractive long-term demand . After the recent sales, I've started to feel increasingly interested in this valuation.
For investors looking beyond companies that simply design AI chips, I think Lam Research deserves serious consideration.
Lam Research提供制造先进半导体所需的设备。持有这四家公司并不自动意味着你的投资就分散了。因为尽管它们身处不同行业,却都暴露于科技投资和更广泛的AI基础设施周期。如果大型科技公司开始削减资本支出,其中许多公司可能面临压力。这正是我们在过去几周所目睹的情况。
Lam Research provides the equipment needed to manufacture advanced semiconductors. Owning these four companies does not automatically mean you have diversified investments. Because despite working in different industries, they share exposure to technology investment and the broader AI infrastructure cycle.
If major technology companies begin cutting capital expenditures, many of these companies could come under pressure. This is what we have witnessed over the past few weeks .
因为我希望获得长期增长机会的敞口,同时又不让整个投资组合依赖市场的某一个领域。说到买入这些股票,我并不试图准确预测底部。我当然也不建议投资者把全部鸡蛋放在一个篮子里。相反,我倾向于逐步利用波动。
这可能意味着分阶段买入股票,或者,视公司情况和可获得的期权权利金而定,考虑现金担保看跌期权。但最重要的是了解业务,并确定你愿意为它支付多少。因为一家伟大的公司,如果你支付的价格过高,仍然可能是一笔糟糕的投资。
股价更低并不自动意味着估值有吸引力。这就是为什么我想继续关注盈利、自由现金流、资产负债表以及未来增长预测。就这些。有四只股票是我期待在2026年底之前可能买入的。
Because I want exposure to long-term growth opportunities without making my entire portfolio dependent on one area of the market. Now, when it comes to buying these stocks, I'm not trying to accurately predict the bottom.
I certainly don't suggest that investors put all their eggs in one basket. Instead, I prefer to take advantage of fluctuations gradually. This could mean buying shares in stages, or, depending on the company and the option premiums available, considering cash-guaranteed put options.
But the most important thing is to understand the business and determine how much you are willing to pay for it. Because a great company can still be a bad investment if you pay too much.
A lower share price does not automatically mean an attractive valuation. That's why I want to continue monitoring earnings, free cash flow, balance sheets , and future growth projections .
So, that's all . There are four stocks I'm looking forward to potentially buying before the end of 2026.
虽然科技板块最近的抛售造成了不确定性,但我认为它也创造了机会,因为其中一些公司继续实现出色的收入和利润增长。而其他公司则受益于支持人工智能所需的基础设施投资,其中许多公司目前股价低于近期高点。
这并不意味着我们已经触底,也不意味着名单上的每只股票都便宜,但我认为随着2027年临近,这四只股票值得更仔细地审视。
While the recent sell-off in the technology sector has created uncertainty, I believe it also creates opportunities because some of these companies continue to achieve exceptional revenue and profit growth.
Other companies, however, are benefiting from the infrastructure investments required to support artificial intelligence, and many of them are currently trading below their recent highs.
This does n't mean we've hit rock bottom, nor does it mean every stock on the list is cheap, but I think these four deserve a closer look as we approach 2027.
现在,我想听听你的想法。如果今年年底前你只能买入这四只股票中的一只,你会选哪一只?Nvidia、AMD、L&M Research,还是Sterling?
Now, I want to hear your thoughts. If you could buy just one of these four stocks before the end of this year, which one would you choose? Nvidia, AMD, L&M Research, or Sterling?