LULU 估值偏低，但因对其长期业务可持续性存疑而被回避。
逐段跳播
它如今最大的持仓是 Lululemon、Molina Healthcare 和 Mercado Libre。很无聊。没有什么故事。各位，关于 Lululemon 仅有的推文和仅有的故事都在说这家公司已经完了。全都是坏故事。
Its largest centers today are Lululemon, Molina Healthcare, and Mercado Libre. Boring. There is no story. Guys, the only tweets and the only stories about Lululemon say that this company is finished. They're all bad stories.
第一只是 LULU。Lululemon 占 Michael Perry 投资组合的 17%。那么，我们在这里看一看。它的市值是 116.3 亿美元。这是公司的实际价格。这不是股票代码的价格。
这只是股数乘以股价。但这就是它的全部。我接下来看的是企业价值。这是市值加上公司债务减去现金。所以，基本上，这里 26 亿、23 亿的差额实际上就是他们的债务。在你看到他们的现金流之前，这看起来是一大笔钱。
去年的现金流是 13.5 亿。五年平均是 10.9 亿。它的售价相当于其自由现金流的八倍半。各位，这便宜得难以置信。如果你相信这项业务至少能稳定下来并继续增长。即便情况逐渐变差，它总体上仍然便宜。
归根结底，各位，如果我告诉你，你可以买下这家市值 1 亿美元的公司，你会在整整一个月内收回你的钱。所以，你当然会。在某个时点，一项投资是好是坏取决于你付出的价格。各位，这里有一个我喜欢的指标，那就是他们的资本回报率很高。
他们的五年平均是 29%，一年平均是 20%。这取决于他们的营业利润。这是公司营业利润对投入业务的资金所产生的回报。很明显，他们的营业利润最近更低了。他们经历了营收和利润的下滑，这就是下滑的原因。
各位，他们有很高的毛利率，高达 56%。Nike 的利润率大约在 40%。因此，他们有能力打造高质量的产品并为其索取高价。问题是，他们是否需要稍微退让一点？尽管他们的营收现在在下滑，看看这个。
三年的营收增长率是每年 8%，五年是 15%，十年是 17.6%。如果你只看这个，你会说，嘿，这家公司还在增长。但当你真正去看营收时，尽管它们看起来还在增长，你转到季度数据。问题就在这里。
2026 年第二季度约为 24.2 亿。2025 年第二季度约为 25.3 亿。所以，按季度看，它在过去一年出现了下滑。
The first one is LULU. Lululemon represents 17% of Michael Perry's portfolio. So, we're taking a look here. Its market value is $11.63 billion. This is the company's actual price.
It is not the price of the stock symbol. This is simply the number of shares multiplied by the share price. But that's the totality of what it amounts to. The next thing I look at is the value of the organization.
This is the market value plus the company's debts minus cash. So, basically, the difference here of 2.6 billion, 2.3 billion is actually their debt. It seems like a large sum until you look at their cash flows.
Last year's cash flow was 1.35 billion. The five-year average is 1.09 billion. It is being sold at a price equivalent to eight and a half times its free cash flow. Guys, this is unbelievably cheap.
If you believe that this business can at least stabilize and continue to grow. It is still generally cheap, even if the work is gradually getting worse. Ultimately, guys, if I told you that you could buy the company with a market value of $100 million, you would recoup your money in exactly one month.
So, of course you will. At some point, an investment becomes good or bad depending on the price you pay. Guys, there's one metric I like here, and that's that their return on capital is high.
Their five-year average is 29%, and their one-year average is 20%. This depends on their operating income. It is the return that the company’s operating income generates on the money invested in the business.
It is clear that their operating income has been lower recently. They have seen a decline in revenues and profits, and this is the reason for this decline. Guys, they have high gross profit margins, as high as 56%.
Nike's profit margins are around 40%. Therefore, they have the ability to build high-quality products and demand a lot of money for them. The question is, do they need to back down from that a little?
Although their revenues are declining now, look at this. The revenue growth rate for three years is 8% annually, for five years it is 15%, and for ten years it is 17.6%. If you just look at that, you'll say, "Hey, this company is still growing."
But when you actually look at the revenues, although they still look like they are growing, you move on to the quarterly figures. Herein lies the problem. The second quarter of 2026 amounted to approximately 2.42 billion.
The second quarter of 2025 amounted to approximately 2.53 billion. So, it has seen a decline over the past year on a quarterly basis.
各位，这实际上是一支达成八大支柱的箭头。这是八大支柱的兴奋之处。现在，这并不意味着你应该去买它。这仅仅意味着你需要明白，认知上存在问题，或者有什么事情正在暗中酝酿，或者两者兼而有之。
Well, guys, it's actually an arrow that achieves the eight pillars. It's the excitement of the Eight Pillars. Now, that doesn't mean you should go and buy it . This simply means that you need to understand that there is a problem with perception, or something is brewing in secret, or a combination of both.
他们预计 Lululemon 在截至 2027 年 2 月的财年实现每股 11 美元，未来三年实际增长为 3%、9% 和 4%。所以，我假设他们认为即将发生变化。
They expect Lululemon to achieve $11 per share for the year ending February 2027 , with actual growth of 3%, 9% and 4% over the next three years. So, I assume they believe there is a change coming.
因为他们还有另一样东西，就是营收增长。营收增长为 2.7%、5% 和 8%。如果情况确实如此，而这家公司仅以自由现金流的 8.5 倍出售，那么这是一笔非常划算的交易，因为按照分析师的说法，它已经重回增长。
Because the other thing they have is revenue growth. Revenue growth of 2.7%, 5% and 8%. If this is indeed the case and the company is being sold for only 8.5 times its free cash flow , then this is a very profitable deal because it has returned to growth, according to analysts.
首先，各位，记住，资本回报率很高。这是一家高质量企业的标志。它不一定是一家能持续很久的企业，但他们很好地管理了流入其业务的现金。
First, remember, guys, that the returns on capital are high. This is a sign of a high- quality business. It's not necessarily a business that will last a long time, but they did a good job of managing the cash that came into their business.
如果 Lululemon 十年后不复存在、被收购，或者变成一家完全不同的公司，我不会感到意外。我把这些假设建立在公司的稳定性、一次轻微的重组、一次可能的下滑，然后再次重回增长之上。所以，我并不过度乐观，我也不认为它会归零。
I wouldn't be surprised if Lululemon no longer existed, was acquired, or became a completely different company 10 years from now. I base these assumptions on the company's stability, a slight reorganization, a possible downturn, and then its return to growth again.
So, I'm not overly optimistic, and I don't think it will reach zero.
利润率和自由现金流。尽管它实现了高得多的比率，但看看这里的利润率，五年和十年都是14%。在未来十年，我对利润率和自由现金流都只用了10%、12%和14%。
Profit margin and free cash flow . Although it achieved much higher rates , look at these profit margins here, they are 14% for five and ten years. I have only used 10%, 12% and 14% for both profit margin and free cash flow for the next ten years.
如果你认为它是一家更好的公司——这体现在它的资本回报率、增长潜力以及它所处的市场类型上——你就会给它更高的市盈率。如果你不这么认为，你就会给它更低的市盈率。我给它的是接近市场平均水平的市盈率。我输入的是13、17和21。
If you believe it is a better company as indicated by its return on capital, growth potential, and the type of market it operates in, you give it a higher price-to-earnings ratio.
If you don't think so, you're giving it a lower price-to-earnings ratio . I gave it a price-to- earnings ratio close to the market average. I entered 13, 17 and 21.
股价目前是103。这就是Bury感兴趣的原因。他的价格低，而我的低价是125，高价是315，平均价是200。各位，这意味着，即使他们每年只能增长4%，利润率只有收入的12%，并且只以17倍市盈率的倍数出售，你仍然能获得大约20%的资金回报。
The stock price is currently 103. This is the reason behind Bury's interest. He has a low price, and I have a low price of 125, a high price of 315 , and an average price of 200.
This means, guys, if they can only grow by 4% annually, make a profit of only 12% on their revenue, and sell at a multiple of only 17 times earnings, you're still looking at a return of approximately 20% on your money.
对我来说，Lululemon不符合我的投资理念。由于我拥有所有这些房地产和生意，我的目标是买入那些我非常有信心能在未来几十年持续经营的公司。对Lulu，我无法这么说。如果现在有人告诉我“Lulu”会在20年后消失，我不会感到意外。因此，我干脆避开它。
For me, Lululemon doesn't fit my investment philosophy. Because of all the real estate and businesses I own, my goal is to buy companies that I am very confident will last for decades to come.
I cannot say that about Lulu. If someone told me now that " Lulu" would disappear in 20 years, I wouldn't be surprised. Therefore, I simply avoid it .
这个频道对 $LULU 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。