LULU面临税损卖出和新任CEO会计重置带来的近期下行压力；对未来的PE退出具有吸引力，但应等待数月再买入。
逐段跳播
以 Lululemon 为例，直到上周它还是 Michael Bury 的头号持仓，然后他在一天之内卖掉了全部，转向 Dick's 作为替代，他卖掉全部是作为一种实现税收亏损的策略。
所以，他在 Lululemon 的仓位从 200 开始。现在他已经卖掉了全部。这是该仓位 50% 的亏损，这应该能抵消他今年投资组合中取得的部分收益，从而让他少缴税。
With Lululemon, which until last week was Michael Bury's number one , then in one day he sold everything and turned to Dick's as an alternative, and he sold everything as a strategy to take tax losses.
So, his position in Lululemon started at 200. And now he has sold everything. This is a 50% loss in that position, which should offset some of the gains he made in his portfolio this year, and thus allow him to pay less tax.
有 30 天的等待期，所以我认为大约在 1 月份，他说他会回到 Lululemon。但这也告诉我们一件事，那就是 Lululemon 在未来 45 天到两个月内很可能不会发生什么。
There is a 30-day waiting period, so I think in January or so, he says he will return to Lululemon. But this also tells us one thing, which is that it is likely that nothing will happen to Lululemon in the next 45 days to two months .
因为如果我们看 Lululemon，销售额下降了，同店销售额下降了 9% 到 10%，但对投资者来说主要因素是公司仍然为正。他们预计第三季度收入下降 10% 到 11%，而且他们将有一位新 CEO，但他们仍然预计保持盈利。
Because if we look at Lululemon, sales have declined, and comparable sales have declined by 9 to 10 %, but the main factor for investors is that the company is still positive. They expect a 10-11% drop in revenue for the third quarter, and they will have a new CEO, but they still expect to remain profitable.
盈利能力允许进行股票回购，而回购和现金流会吸引可能希望收购它们的私募股权公司的兴趣。现在我们有一位新 CEO，而她同样不太可能在接下来几个月内把公司准备好出售。他们很可能会设法把事情塑造成我们能在 2027 年退出，或者类似私募股权收购那样的方式，而我认为这正是 Bury 在下注的事情。
Profitability allows for share buybacks, and buybacks and cash flows attract the interest of private equity firms that may wish to acquire them. Now we have a new CEO, and it is again unlikely that she will prepare the company for sale in the next few months.
It's likely they'll try to shape things so that we can get an exit in 2027 or something like a private equity takeover, and that's something I think Bury is betting on.
然后是财务上“预算清理”的故事，一位新 CEO 上任，审视情况，在第一次电话会议上，你可能会把一切弄得很糟，然后说：“这就是我接手时的样子。”“之后任何改善都完全是我自己的功劳。”因此，这是可能把股价进一步推低的事情。
Then there's the story of the "budget cleanup" in finance, where a new CEO comes in, examines the situation, and on the first conference call, you might make everything look very bad and then say, "This is what I started with."
"Any subsequent improvement is entirely my own doing." Therefore, this is something that could push the stock down even further.
说到这只股票，它可能进一步下跌，但现在的问题是跌到多深。市值现在是 100 亿。自由现金流仍为 12 亿。它仍然为正。市盈率是七倍，而这只股票在仅仅两年半前还在 500。这太疯狂了。
When it comes to the stock, it may fall further, but the question now is how far. The market value is now 10 billion. Free cash flow remains at 1.2 billion. It's still positive.
The price-to-earnings ratio is seven, and the stock was at 500 just two and a half years ago. This is crazy.
也许 Lululemon 应该以 120 亿到 150 亿被收购。可能会有一些低价报价出现。也许他们应该披露这一点。谁知道呢？
Perhaps with Lululemon, it should be acquired for 12-15 billion. There are likely to be some low offers coming. Perhaps they should disclose that. Who knows?
所以，说到时尚，我把这些股票排除在外，尽管 Lululemon 很有意思。也许下个月我会看到不同的东西。但是，也考虑到 Barry 所做的事情，我们可能还得再等 3 个月，然后等到明年。
可能会有更多抛售来抵消其他人的税收亏损，这会把股价压到 12 月底。
So, when it comes to fashion, I'm ruling out these stocks even though Lululemon is interesting. Maybe next month I'll see things differently. But, also considering what Barry has done, we may have to wait another 3 months and then wait until next year.
There may be more sales to offset tax losses by others, which will push the stock down until the end of December.
这个频道对 $LULU 的历次判断
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。