$LULU · Schwab Network · 2026-10-28
LULU 处于长期下跌趋势，预计还会有更多痛苦：股价已从低点反弹近 17%，但今年仍下跌 49%，反弹应被卖出，基本面面临真实逆风，包括难以逆转的市场份额流失；说话者持有看跌的看跌期权价差。104 下方的倒头肩形态可能允许上涨，但 50 周期和 20 周期移动均线的阻力可能限制或逆转涨势。
逐段跳播
好的，现在让我们来看看Lululemon，我认为我们已经从一只表现不佳的股票变成了一只可能更糟的股票。事实上，我可能会说，今年我们从这只股票上看到了类似的失望，因为我们从这些，我的意思是，近期低点反弹了一点，但该股今年仍下跌49%。
所以，Don，就评估Lululemon的交易方法而言，这里是一项艰巨的任务，但也许我们应该期待看到价格触底。
Okay, now let's move on to Lululemon, where I think we've gone from a stock that performed poorly to one that may be even worse. In fact, I might argue that there has been a similar disappointment we have seen from this name this year, in that we have bounced a bit off these , I mean, recent lows, but the stock is still down 49% this year.
So, Don, as far as evaluating Lululemon's trading methods is concerned , it's a difficult task here, but perhaps we should look forward to seeing the price bottom out.
是的，我知道，我在这里其实持有完全相反的立场。Lululemon 从它的部分低位上涨了大约17%，涨幅很小，但这已经算是相当不错的上涨了。所以在 Lulu 上，可以说我已经经历过那种强劲而突然的上涨。
如你所知，我在市场上已经看到了买单的回报。不过，我认为市场会忽略这一点，也就是说他们会回来抢着买入，然后又会卖出。啊，未来还会有更多痛苦。你看，Lulu，从基本面来看，这会超出图表的范畴。
从基本面来看，Lulu 正面临真正的逆风。我的意思是，你看，我不介意说，我永远不会穿 Lulu 的裤子，但我会穿“Alo”。而且我就知道，Ben 在这里会抓狂。Jenny，我这么说错了吗，我错了吗？
嗯，再说一次，“Hello”来势强劲。这是一个非常艰难的市场。一旦你开始失去市场份额，你怎么可能最终把它夺回来？啊，再说一次，一个艰难的故事。不过，我正在做一笔看跌交易。啊，到期日是12月18日，这让我在这里笑了。
对于12月18日的到期日，我会买入100行权价的看跌期权。我会卖出90行权价的看跌期权与之相对。这笔交易以3.40美元的折价成本完成。所以，这是一个略微在价格区间之外的卖出期权价差，期待出现一些抛售活动，以及 Lululemon 未来更多的痛苦。
Yes, I know, I actually take the exact opposite position here. So, Lululemon has risen very slightly from some of its lower levels by about 17%, but that's a fairly good rise. So, at Lulu, I have already experienced , so to speak, that kind of strong and sudden rise.
As you know, I've got a return of purchase orders in the market. However, I think the market will ignore this, which means they will come back and rush to buy it, and they will sell it.
Ah, there will be more pain in the future. Look, Lulu, well, on a basic basis, this will go beyond the chart. On a basic basis, Lulu is facing real headwinds. I mean, look, I just do n't mind saying, I'll never wear Lulu pants, but I will wear "Alo".
And I just know, you know, that Ben is going to lose his mind here. Jenny , am I wrong to say that, am I? Um, once again, "Hello" is coming in strong. This is a really tough market .
Once you start losing market share, you know, how can you eventually regain it ? Ah, once again, a difficult story. However, I am taking a bearish trade. Ah, the expiry date is December 18th, that made me laugh here.
For the expiry date of December 18, I will buy put options at the 100 level. I will sell put options at the 90 level against it. This transaction was completed at a discounted cost of $3.40.
So, it 's a sell option spread slightly outside the price range, looking forward to the return of some sell-off activity and more pain in the future for Lululemon.
Ben，当你当然去看“Lululimone”的技术指标时，你会发现它再次从低点上涨了将近17%，正如 Don 所指出的。不过，我们在这里仍然看到 Lululemon 股票处于长期下跌趋势中。
Ben, when you look at the technical indicators for "Lululimone" of course, you will find that it has risen again from its lows, as Don pointed out, by nearly 17%. However, we are still seeing a long-term downward trend for Lululemon stock here.
是的，你说得对。我的意思是，这是一个长期下跌趋势。这两家店的裤子我都没有，所以我对此实在无法评论。我能评论的是，这个下跌趋势可能开始有所减弱，借用一个老思路，在104水平下方开始形成一个倒头肩形态。
这带来了上涨的可能性，但它位于那个阻力位。它恰好位于50周期和20周期移动平均线处。除非它获得一些动能，否则这代表着向下反弹的可能性。我认为从经济角度来看，Lululemon 总体上还面临一些障碍，或许还有向其他品牌转移的趋势。
另一方面，他们与“American Express”在高端持卡人一些权益方面有非常成功的合作。因此，这也带来了一些收入。但从技术角度来看，该股正面临阻力。它在这里有可能小幅上涨，也许涨20点，但也有可能从这个阻力位下跌。
Yes , you are right about that. I mean, this is a long-term downward trend. I do n't own pants from either of those stores, so I can't really comment on that. What I can comment on is that this downtrend may be starting to weaken a little, and to borrow an old idea, we have an inverted head and shoulders pattern starting to form below the 104 level.
This gives the possibility of an upward move, but it lies at that resistance level. It lies precisely at the 50-period and 20-period moving averages. This represents a potential for a downward bounce unless it gains some momentum.
I think there are some obstacles facing Lululemon in general from an economic standpoint, and perhaps a shift towards other brands. On the other hand, they have a very successful partnership with "American Express" regarding some benefits for premium cardholders.
Therefore, it also generates some revenue. But from a technical standpoint, the stock is facing resistance. It has the potential to rise a little here, perhaps by 20 points, but it also has the potential to fall from this resistance level.
这个频道对 $LULU 的历次判断
Schwab Network 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。