$LYFT

买入 Lyft;该股估值偏低,基本面持续改善,自由现金流为正,并在自动驾驶基础设施领域占据战略位置。

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《3 Insanely Cheap Stocks I OWN!》
Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium发布 2026-10-08 · 11 段内容
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11 段内容
1:1614:31

Lyft、Uber,它们大致处于同一行业,还有 MGM Resorts。我在2026年会买入更多这些股票。这是因为它们非常便宜,而且我认为它们的基本面会随着时间推移而改善。

Lyft, Uber, who are in roughly the same industry, and MGM Resorts. I am buying more of these stocks in 2026. This is because they are very cheap and I think their fundamentals will get better over time.

那么,我们来看第一个,也就是电梯。你实际上看的是它的市盈率倍数。看看这里的一次性问题。现在是2.3,但这个数字可能是评估的更好指标。前瞻市盈率是8。未来自由现金流的价值约为5。

这表明市场认为这家公司从长期来看确实陷入了困境。

So, let's get to the first one, which is the elevator. You actually look at their price-to-earnings multiple. Look at the one-time issues here. It is now 2.3, but this number is probably a better indicator of the assessment.

The forward-looking price-to-earnings multiple is eight. The value of free cash flow on a future basis is about five. What this indicates is that the market thinks this company is truly in trouble in the long term.

你在这里看到的另一件事是,股价在过去一年里下跌了约25%。所以,倍数开始下降,但看看一些关键数字。过去5年的复合年增长率是23%,3年复合年增长率是16.8%。正如我所说,这里的观点是 Lyft 将处于危险之中,因为自动驾驶汽车会颠覆这项业务。我认为这不会发生,而且它也没有出现在数字中。

The other thing you're seeing here is that the share price has fallen by about 25% in the last year. So, the multiples are starting to decrease , but look at some prime numbers.

The compound annual growth rate over the last 5 years is 23% and the 3-year compound annual growth rate is 16.8%. As I said, the idea here is that Lyft will be in danger because autonomous vehicles will disrupt this business.

I don't think that will happen and it does n't appear in numerology.

说到电梯,你需要留意的三个数字是预订额状况。预订额是流入系统的收入有多少。当你为一次行程支付10美元时,Lyft 不会把这10美元计为收入。他们实际上计算自己的抽成率,大约在20%到25%之间。

他们把它计为收入。所以,假设是2.50美元的收入,但这是一笔10美元的预订额。给司机的额外7.50美元不计入他们利润表中的费用。不过,你可以看到他们的预订额状况如何。不仅仅是它一个季度接一个季度地增长,而且最近这种增长的步伐实际上还在加快。

The three numbers you need to keep an eye on when it comes to elevators are the booking status. Bookings are how much revenue is coming into the system. When you pay $10 for a ride , Lyft does n't count that as $10 in revenue.

They actually calculate their take rate, which is around 20 to 25%. They count it as income. So, let 's say it's $2.50 in revenue, but it's a $10 booking. The extra $7.50 that goes to the driver is not counted as an expense on their income statement.

However, you can see what their booking status is. It's not just that it's growing quarter after quarter, but recently the pace of that growth has actually been increasing.

但是,究竟是什么在推动它?这是行程数和乘客数。活跃乘客。我们先把行程数放一放。活跃乘客数实际上在增长。超过3000万活跃乘客。他们做了几件事。他们不仅在美国持续增长,还扩展了国际业务。

尤其是在欧洲,他们目前特别专注于出租车市场。他们去年收购了一家叫“Free Now”的公司。他们现在已经改了它的名字,所以它稍微契合了 Lyft 的品牌。但是,“Free Now”本质上是一项出租车业务。

所以,是一种与出租车建立数字连接的方式。它与自动驾驶汽车的世界相当契合。所以,当那些出租车车队被自动驾驶汽车车队取代时,Lyft 在欧洲将处于相当不错的位置。

But, what is actually driving it? This is the number of rides and the number of riders. Active rider. Let's put the rides behind us for a moment. The number of active riders is actually increasing.

Over 30 million active riders. They did a few things. They have not only continued to grow in the United States , but have also expanded their operations internationally. Especially in Europe, where they are currently focusing specifically on the taxi market.

They bought a company called 'Free Now' last year. They've changed the name of it now , so it's fitting in a bit with Lyft's branding. But, 'Free Now' is essentially a taxi business.

So, a means of establishing a digital connection with taxis. It fits in quite well with the world of automated vehicles. So, when those taxi fleets are replaced by autonomous vehicle fleets , Lyft will be in a pretty good position in Europe.

我认为我们会在美国看到很多同样的事情发生。他们与纳什维尔的 Way 有合作。他们实际上建了一个站点,所以他们拥有部分那样的基础设施。我认为他们处于非常有利的位置,而且我们看到乘客数量在增长。

行程数也在持续增长。按季度来看波动性略小一些,但你现在可以看到每年大约有十亿次行程。

I think we will see a lot of the same things happening in the United States. They have a partnership with Way in Nashville. They actually built a depot , so they have some of that infrastructure.

I think they are in a very good position and we are seeing that the number of passengers is increasing. The number of rides is also constantly increasing. There's a little less volatility on a quarterly basis , but you can now see that there are about a billion rides a year.

Lyft 还有另一个优势,就是正向自由现金流,该业务去年产生了约11亿美元的自由现金流。基于他们的保险准备金,这可能有点波动,但这是一项持续盈利并产生大量自由现金流的业务。这正是我们想看到的。

资产负债表也处于相当不错的位置。目前,资产负债表上有18亿美元现金。有一些债务,但约为9.9亿美元。所以,目前资产负债表上的净现金约为8亿美元。

Another thing Lyft has going for it is positive free cash flow, with the business generating around $1.1 billion in free cash flow last year. It may be a bit volatile based on their insurance reserves , but it is a business that continues to be profitable and generate a lot of free cash flow.

That's exactly what we want to see. The balance sheet is also in a pretty good position. Currently, there is $1.8 billion in cash on the balance sheet. There is some debt, but it is about $990 million.

So, currently the net cash on the balance sheet is about $800 million.

所以,当你审视它们的估值时,Lyft 的市值是 59 亿美元,但它今天的企业价值只有 53 亿美元。这让它们有机会利用不仅来自营收、而且已累积在资产负债表上的现金去收购竞争对手。

它们自己甚至可能成为被收购的目标。我之前在这个频道上说过,如果 Wero 或 Jux 收购它们,我不会感到意外。这是一种风险非常低的收购。你能得到 3000 万活跃乘客。对这类公司来说,在自动驾驶方面这可能是一个非常好的位置。

So, when you look at their valuation, Lyft has a market cap of $5.9 billion , but their enterprise value today is only $5.3 billion. This gives them the opportunity to use the cash that is not only coming from revenue, but also accumulated on the balance sheet, so that they can acquire competitors.

They themselves may even be targets for acquisition. I've said before on this channel that I would n't be surprised if Wero or Jux bought them. This is a type of very low-risk acquisition.

You're getting 30 million active passengers. This could be a very good position for these companies in terms of automated driving.

所以,我认为 Lyft 符合你所需要的一切。它有增长,利润率表现非常好,有正向的自由现金流,资产负债表强劲,而且今天它是一只估值极其合理的股票。

So, I think Lyft fits everything you need. It has growth, margins are doing very well , there is positive free cash flow, the balance sheet is strong and today it is an incredibly well-valued stock.

它们在许多自动驾驶汽车方面有很多合作。所以,我认为它将继续充当那个需求聚合者,即使我们进入一个用智能体来叫车的世界,你要在哪里叫车?你可能会想到 Uber 或 Lyft。这是如今很多人都会做的事。

They have a lot of partnerships in many automated vehicles. So, I think it will continue to act as that demand aggregator, even if we go to a world where you're using an agent to call a ride , where do you call for that ride ?

You might look at Uber or Lyft. This is something that many people do nowadays.

所以,当我审视我投资组合中最便宜的股票时,我看到的是 Lyft、Uber 和 MGM Resorts。

So when I look at the cheapest stocks in my portfolio , I see Lyft, Uber, and MGM Resorts.

观察点

预订量增长速度与活跃骑手数量
预订量和骑手数量持续增长
季度财报财报
若增长加速则支撑看涨逻辑;若增长停滞则削弱该逻辑

这个频道对 $LYFT 的历次判断

Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium 在这只股票上共 3 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。

2026-10-08看涨本条
Lyft、Uber,它们大致处于同一行业,还有 MGM Resorts。我在2026年会买入更多这些股票。这是因为它们非常便宜,而且我认为它们的基本面会随着时间推移而改善。
2026-09-03看涨
这四只股票是 Adobe、MGM Resorts、Dick Sporting Goods 和 Lyft。
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