月度分红的 BDC——MAIN 占组合的 6%:其股息覆盖率约 133%,在同行中位居最强之列,月度股息自 2008 年以来逐年上升。但其 8.16% 的收益率包含补充股息,因此更确定的前瞻收益率为 5%-5.5%;补充股息需要高利率且无违约。
逐段跳播
我们可以做的是,加入一只金融板块有史以来最受欢迎的月度派息公司之一,那就是 Main Street Capital,其股票代码是 MAIN。我们将把投资组合约6%的资金,也就是6万美元,配置到它上面,它当前的收益率或股息率约为8.16%。
What we can do is add one of the most popular monthly dividend paying companies in the financial sector of all time, and that is Main Street Capital, whose stock ticker is MAIN.
We will allocate about 6% of our portfolio, or $60,000, to it, and its current yield or dividend rate is about 8.16%.
这一点很重要,需要记住,我们稍后会再回到这个话题,我会向你展示原因。我们还可以看到,这意味着大约4900美元的收益,其历史股息增长率约为5%,回顾 Main Street Capital 过去10年的表现,看起来相当不错。
大约是59%,但你必须记住,这一增长大部分来自分派。所以如果我们照此计算,你会看到过去十年的总回报率超过239%。对于一只高收益的月度派息股来说,这令人印象非常深刻。
This is important to remember and we will come back to it in a moment and I will show you why. We can also see that this means about $4,900 in income, which has a historical dividend growth rate of about 5%, and looking at Main Street Capital over the last 10 years, it looks pretty good.
That's about 59%, but you have to remember that most of this growth is coming from distribution. So if we do exactly that, you'll see that the total return over the last decade is over 239%.
That's incredibly impressive for a high-yield monthly dividend payer.
所以如果我们照此计算,你会看到过去十年的总回报率超过239%。对于一只高收益的月度派息股来说,这令人印象非常深刻。
So if we do exactly that , you'll see that the total return over the last decade is over 239%. That's incredibly impressive for a high-yield monthly dividend payer.
Main Street Capital 是一家业务发展公司,也就是 BDC。基本上,他们做的是向那些难以获得传统融资的公司提供贷款。这种商业模式既有好的一面,也有坏的一面。我们来分析一下。
Main Street Capital is a business development company or BDC. Basically what they do is they lend and lend to companies that have trouble getting conventional financing. This type of business model has both good and bad sides. Let's analyze it.
我们来分析一下。我们现在拥有的是一个 Dividendology BDC 数据库。这是我在 dividendology.com 上提供的东西。它包含一些重要指标,这些指标在大多数 BDC 软件中都看不到,但对于理解它们的结构以及它们未来可能的表现却至关重要。
Let's analyze it. What we have now is a Dividendology BDC database. This is something I provide at dividendology.com. It contains important metrics that are not visible in most software for BDCs, yet are crucial for understanding how they are structured and how they may perform in the future.
那我们来找一下 Main Street Capital。我们放大并向下滚动,就能看到 Main Street Capital 就列在这里。
So let's find Main Street Capital. We'll zoom in and scroll down and we can see Main Street Capital listed right here.
现在你会注意到这一点。这个数据库列出了基础股息和总股息。这是因为每当这些 BDC 产生超额收益时,它们就会将其分配给股东。这被称为补充股息。
Here's what you'll notice now. This database lists a base dividend and a total dividend. This is because whenever these BDCs make excess income, they distribute it to shareholders. This is called a supplemental dividend.
例如,如果我们看他们的投资者演示材料,会看到2008年。自2008年以来,我们可以看到他们每月支付的股息以及他们支付的补充股息。这意味着月度股息每年都在持续增长。
For example, if we look at their investor presentation , we see the year 2008. Since 2008, we can see their monthly dividends as well as the supplemental dividends they have paid.
That means the monthly dividend has been increasing continuously every year.
这非常有意思。不过,补充股息的波动幅度可能要大得多。例如,你可以看到,当我们进入2020年至2022年的极低利率环境时,他们没有支付任何补充股息。
This is incredibly interesting. However, supplemental dividends can vary at a much higher rate. For example, you can see that when we entered the extremely low interest rate environment from 2020 to 2022 , they were not paying any supplemental dividends.
也有可能他们贷款组合中的许多底层公司正在对其贷款违约。但当我们进入较高利率环境时,他们开始产生明显更多的补充股息。
It is also possible that many of the underlying companies in their loan portfolio were defaulting on their loans. But when we enter a higher interest rate environment, they start to produce significantly more supplemental dividends.
为什么会这样?为什么他们在高利率环境下会产生更高的补充股息?事实上,原因是这些公司提供的大多数贷款都是浮动利率贷款。也就是说,随着利率上升,BDC 的收入也会增加。
Why does this happen? Why do they produce higher supplemental dividends in a high interest rate environment ? In fact, the reason for this is that most of the loans these companies offer are variable rate loans.
That is, as interest rates increase, BDC income also increases.
所以,只要借款公司不违约,更高的利率反而可能出人意料地成为 BDC 的净利好。我们还看到,Main Street Capital 的核心股息覆盖率在同行中是最强的之一,约为133%。
So as long as the borrowing companies do n't default on their loans , higher interest rates can surprisingly be a net benefit for BDCs. We also see that Main Street Capital's core dividend coverage is one of the strongest among its peers, at around 133%.
那么,关于我们一开始提到的约8.16%的股息率,需要记住的重要一点是:我们要明白,这个数字是包含补充股息的。所以你未来实际可能获得的股息肯定远低于基础股息。它接近5%到5.5%的区间。
这是一个你可以认为或多或少比较确定的假设利率。而补充股息则没有保证。所以在分析任何 BDC 时,务必记住这一点。
So, what's important to remember about the dividend yield of about 8.16% that we mentioned at the beginning is this. What we need to understand is that this is stated including supplementary dividends.
So the actual dividend you may receive in the future is definitely much less than the base dividend. It is close to the 5 to 5.5% range. This is a hypothetical rate that you can assume to be more or less certain.
Meanwhile, supplementary dividends are not guaranteed. So it is essential to keep this in mind when analyzing any BDC.
这个频道对 $MAIN 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 2 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。