MCD 是一只长期持仓：其房地产价值很可能远高于当初的投入，即便遭遇灾难也能提供稳定性并支撑股东。其3.3%的股息率在连续50年增长后接近10年高位；它不会是最佳表现者，10年后价值是否更高也不确定。
逐段跳播
好，来说最后一只股票，我可能是这个频道上第一个重点提到它的人。我之所以要提它，是因为我认为从现在到2036年，没有什么能拖垮这家企业，我会解释原因。这家公司就是麦当劳，股票代码是MCD。
Okay, for the last stock here, I might be the first person on this channel to highlight it . The reason I'm highlighting it is because I don't think anything is going to sink this business between now and 2036, and I'll explain why.
This company is McDonald's. The stock symbol is MCD.
当然，这是全球最大的餐饮公司。大家都知道金拱门。在投资者讨论优质长期机会时，它并不常被提起，但我想聊聊一些你可能不知道的关于麦当劳的事情。
Now, this is, of course, the largest restaurant company in the world. Everyone knows about golden brackets. They don't come up much among investors talking about good long-term opportunities, but I want to talk about some things you might not know about McDonald's.
它的收入主要来自三个途径。公司拥有自己的餐厅。其中一些——相比之下数量不多——但他们确实拥有一些，所以能通过直接卖给你巨无霸获得直接销售收入。更重要的是，他们有加盟商卖给你巨无霸，他们从中收取特许权使用费和加盟费。
这实际上是比自营销售更大的收入来源。但最大的收入来源，这一点让很多人意外，其实是租金。他们拥有房地产。他们拥有大约50%的建筑物所在土地，而且就全球所有餐厅而言，他们拥有大部分建筑物。
所以他们向加盟商收取月租让他们留在那里，这部分贡献了大约40%的收入。
So, it generates revenue in three main ways. The company owns its own restaurants. Some of them —not many in comparison—but They own some of them, so they make direct sales from selling you a Big Mac.
And more than that, they have franchisees who sell you Big Macs, and they get royalties and franchise fees from that. That's actually a bigger source of revenue than their own sales.
But the biggest source of revenue, which surprises a lot of people, is actually rent. They own the real estate. They own roughly 50% of the land their buildings are on, and they own most of the buildings when we're talking about all their restaurants around the world.
So they charge their franchisees monthly rent to stay there, and that's where they make about 40% of their revenue.
所以，你是说麦当劳是一家房地产公司？是的，确实是。我认为这正是它稳定性的来源。当你想到一家餐饮公司时，你知道有些餐饮公司销售额开始下滑，租金到期，而它们的利润率基本上非常微薄，情况就可能开始走下坡路。
麦当劳作为母公司，其实不必担心这一点，因为他们拥有土地。
So, you're telling me McDonald's is a real estate company? Yes, it is. And I think that's what gives them stability. When you think about a restaurant company, you know there are some restaurant companies where sales start to decline, rent comes due, and they're basically on very small profit margins , and things can start to go downhill for them.
McDonald's, the parent company, doesn't really have to worry about that because they own the land.
他们花了将近500亿美元——这些数字有点复杂，但他们大概花了500亿美元左右来收购所有这些土地。好，但你必须明白，这不会体现在资产负债表上。他们并没有提供土地和建筑物价值的估算来得出账面价值，对吧？
They've spent almost $50 billion—the numbers This is a bit complicated, but they probably spent around $50 billion to acquire all that land. Okay, but you have to understand that this doesn't show up on the balance sheet .
They don't provide estimates of the value of their land and buildings to arrive at a book value, do they?
所以，我认为有充分理由认为，他们的房地产实际价值远高于当初买入的花费，因为其中一些是几十年前收购的，价值只增不减。事实上，即使麦当劳完全失去对消费者的吸引力，那些土地仍然有价值，因为它们往往位于非常黄金的地段，其他餐厅会想要。
所以，即使未来十年麦当劳的情况变得非常糟糕，他们仍然有整个房地产业务作为支撑，他们可以清算或出售它，为股东创造巨额收益。但我认为那不会发生。我只是说，如果麦当劳发生灾难性的情况，它仍然非常稳定。
So, I think there's a strong argument that their real estate is actually worth much more than they spent to buy it, because some of it was acquired decades ago, and its value has only increased.
In fact , even if McDonald's were to completely lose its appeal to consumers, that land would still be valuable because it's often in very prime locations that other restaurants would want .
So, even if things get really bad for McDonald's in the next ten years, they'll still have the entire real estate business backing them up, and they could liquidate or sell it and generate huge sums for shareholders.
But I don't think that's going to happen. I'm just saying, if a catastrophic scenario were to occur for McDonald's, it's still very stable.
但我认为你在这里的意思是，我们应该组建一个私募股权集团，买下麦当劳，卖掉它所有的房地产，我不知道，我相信某些激进投资者会说，那是释放这部分价值的最佳方式，确实。嗯，麦当劳并不处于那样的境地。
它状况很好，而它的股价已经下跌。股息率目前接近10年高点的3.3%。这是一家已经连续50年支付并提高股息的公司，这让它处于非常优越的位置。
But I think you're suggesting here that we should form a private equity group, buy McDonald's, and sell all its real estate, and I don't know , I'm sure some activist would say That's the best way to unlock that value, definitely.
Hmm, McDonald's isn't in a position to do that. It's perfectly fine, and its stock has dropped. The dividend yield is currently near a 10- year high of 3.3%. This is a company that has paid its dividend and increased it for 50 consecutive years now, which puts it in a very privileged position .
它会成为这份名单上表现最好的吗？绝对不会。这家公司10年后会比现在更有价值吗？我会说也许。我们聊着聊着，突然想到一个问题。我对麦当劳的看法之一是它有韧性。我的意思是，它是那种孩子们总是吵着要去的地方，就为了拿那个傻乎乎的玩具。
你知道，开心乐园餐在孩子们中的受欢迎程度，和我小时候一样。你觉得麦当劳10年后的员工数量会和现在一样多吗？因为看看麦当劳现在的样子，员工少得多，人与人之间的互动少得多，而且，天哪，当你想到做汉堡，你会想到用机器人的场景。
我的意思是，他们在很多不同的事情上已经朝那个方向走了，做了大量自动化，但这非常引人注目。我不知道这对麦当劳是好是坏，但这看起来是这家公司的未来，如果只是关于一遍又一遍地做同样的汉堡，我们可能干脆让人形机器人来给我们点单。
Will it be the best performer on this list? Absolutely not. Will this company be more valuable in 10 years than it is now? I'd say maybe . Random question as we speak. One of the things I think about McDonald's is that it has resilience.
I mean, it's one of those places kids ask to go to all the time just to get that silly toy. You know, Happy Meals are still as popular with kids as they were when I was a kid. Do you think McDonald's will have as many employees in 10 years ?
Because looking at what McDonald's looks like now, there are far fewer employees, far fewer human interactions, and, man, when you think about making a burger, you think about situations Using robots.
I mean, they've moved in that direction with a lot of automation for a lot of different things, but this is very compelling. I don't know if this is good or bad for McDonald's, but it looks like the future of this company, if it's just about making the same burger over and over again, we might simply get humanoid robots taking our orders.
至少，我认为麦当劳在未来十年内取消收银员岗位的概率超过50%。我看不出这个过程有什么必要发生。在很多地方它已经消失了，是的。没错。你可以通过应用程序，也可以在店内的自助点餐机上完成。
我认为没有令人信服的理由让麦当劳保留收银员，而这让后端运营效率高得多，这对加盟商也很有吸引力，因为这是他们提高盈利能力的一种方式。
At the very least, I think McDonald's has a greater than 50% chance of eliminating the cashier job within the next decade. I don't see where this process needs to happen. It's already gone in a lot of places, yes.
Exactly. You can do it either through the app or you can do it at the kiosk inside the store. I don't think there's a compelling reason to keep a cashier at McDonald's, and this makes the back-end operations much more efficient , which is attractive to the franchisee as well because it's a way they can be more profitable.
是的，那是一个。是的，如果你不研究麦当劳，了解一下它的业务有多少真正基于房地产是很有好处的，而这是业务中很强的一部分，但我也同意，麦当劳不会消失。
Yes, that's one. Yes, if you don't look at McDonald's, it's great to understand how much of the business is really based on real estate, and that's a strong part of the business, but I also agree that McDonald's isn't going anywhere.