MCD 尚不值得买入：增长乏力，市盈率仍比行业平均水平高出 20% 以上，相比更便宜的股票并无出色的增长，因此即便已较峰值下跌约 30%，仍缺乏吸引力；其 Next 计划、加盟业务现金流和超过 3% 的股息率则是优势。
逐段跳播
当然是麦当劳，股票代码MCD，特朗普在最新一笔买入交易中买入了价值最高达500万美元的股份。在他买入的所有股票中，这只可能最不令人意外；因为几乎所有人都知道，特朗普对麦当劳的食物有着长期的、甚至可以说是“恋情”般的关系。
It is, of course, McDonald's, its stock ticker symbol MCD, in which Trump acquired shares worth up to $5 million in his latest buying deal. Of all the stocks he bought, this one might be the least surprising; Because, as almost everyone knows, Trump has a long-standing, perhaps even " love affair" with McDonald's food.
我们看到他在白宫端上成堆的巨无霸和四分之一磅汉堡，在竞选期间为自己的私人飞机订购成袋的汉堡，甚至穿着围裙在宾夕法尼亚州一家麦当劳门店的炸炉前工作。
We saw him serving towering piles of Big Macs and Quarter Pounders at the White House, ordering bags of burgers for his private plane during his election campaign, and even wearing an apron to work in a fryer at a McDonald's branch in Pennsylvania.
事实上，他经常开玩笑说，他吃汉堡的原因之一是他觉得这是一种干净可靠的方式，能确切知道自己盘子里，或者我认为在这种情况下是他袋子里，会得到什么。
In fact, he has often joked that one of the reasons he eats burgers is because he feels it's a clean and reliable way to know exactly what he's going to get on his plate or, I think, his bag in this case.
看来他不再只是对吃汉堡感兴趣，而是想通过投资成为所有权合伙人。
Well, it seems he is no longer just interested in eating burgers, but wants to be a partner in ownership through investment.
看股票走势图，这次近期飙升的时机似乎合乎逻辑。麦当劳今年处境非常艰难，甚至较峰值下跌约30%，这对一只几十年来通常表现强劲的股票来说令人担忧。
Looking at the stock chart , the timing of this recent surge seems logical. McDonald's has had a very difficult time this year, even falling by about 30% from its peak, which is worrying for a stock that has typically performed strongly for decades.
那么华尔街为什么抛弃它？一切都与普通消费者面临的压力有关。持续的通胀和上升的利率压榨着家庭预算，低收入者减少了外出就餐，同时强烈抵制快餐价格，尤其是不断上涨的价格。
So why did Wall Street abandon him? Well, it's all about the pressures faced by the average consumer. With persistent inflation and rising interest rates weighing on household budgets, low-income earners have reduced their restaurant visits, while fiercely resisting fast food prices, especially the rising prices.
事实上，从他们最新的财报中也能看到这种放缓，全球同店销售额仅微增1.3%，而美国门店销售额仅微增不到1%。此外，投入成本高得离谱，CEO Chris Kimczynski指出，过去五年其主要市场的批发牛肉价格实际上翻了一番，这很不合理。
In fact, we can see this slowdown even in their latest earnings, where sales of comparable global stores barely rose by 1.3%, while sales of US stores barely rose by less than 1%.
Moreover, input costs were exorbitant, with CEO Chris Kimczynski noting that wholesale beef prices had literally doubled in their main markets over the past five years, which is unreasonable.
因此，当食品成本上升与消费者在非常艰难的宏观经济中财务拮据相结合时，华尔街担心麦当劳会陷入利润率陷阱，不得不在两件事之间选择：要么提价并冒着失去顾客的风险，要么提供大幅折扣吸引顾客，但代价是侵蚀大部分利润。
So, when you combine rising food costs with consumers struggling financially in a very difficult macroeconomy , Wall Street is concerned that McDonald's will fall into a profit margin trap, where it has to choose between two things: either raising prices and risking losing customers, or offering big discounts to attract them, but at the cost of eroding a large part of its profits.
在我看来，无论哪种方式都像是双输局面，这也是我还没有买入它的原因之一，至少目前还没有。不过，我想说，如果有一家公司不应因为周期性经济低迷而被排除，那绝对是麦当劳。
To me, it seems like a lose-lose situation either way , and that's one of the reasons I haven't bought it, at least not yet . However, I would say that if there is one company that should not be ruled out because of a cyclical economic downturn, it is definitely McDonald's.
事实上，回顾历史，我记得有两次该公司股价较峰值下跌超过30%，一次是在2003年经济衰退期间，另一次是在2015年。但两次批评者都声称快餐业已经完蛋。然而两次麦当劳都彻底重塑了运营，其股价在随后两年内上涨了一倍多。
In fact , historically, I recall two times when the company's stock fell by more than 30% from its peak, once during the 2003 recession and again in 2015. But both times, critics claimed that fast food was finished.
However, both times McDonald's completely reinvented its operations, and its stock price more than doubled in the following two years.
现在，公司正通过一项名为“Next”的85亿美元现代化计划来实施同样的策略。
Now, the company is applying the same strategy through an $8.5 billion modernization plan called "Next".
首先，公司通过使用新技术改变客户体验。它正在推出一个名为“Arch IQ”的基于AI的运营平台，以改善厨房员工管理。它还在测试一种名为“Archie”的自动得来速点餐工具。他们甚至在增加店内取餐柜，帮助外卖司机更快、更高效地工作。
First, the company is changing the customer experience by using new technologies. It is launching an AI-based operating platform called "Arch IQ" to improve kitchen staff management .
It is also testing an automated drive-through ordering tool called "Archie". They are even adding in-store receiving lockers to help delivery drivers work faster and more efficiently.
其次，他们正在试验在数字汽车点餐板上投放新的高利润率广告。他们可能会看到巨大的流量。他们已经在全球拥有超过29,000家汽车服务门店，每天服务超过7000万顾客。
Secondly, they are experimenting with new high-margin advertising on digital car order boards. They may witness a huge turnout. They already have more than 29,000 car service branches worldwide, and serve more than 70 million customers daily.
因此，管理层估计仅这个新的汽车广告网络就可能产生高达10亿美元的高利润率销售额。第三，他们通过所谓的“Best Burger”计划大力捍卫核心菜单。该计划旨在改善面包质量和烹饪流程。
他们还为胃口大的人推出新的“Big Arch”汉堡，并为喜欢鸡肉的人扩大手工裹粉鸡肉的选择。
Therefore, management estimates that this new car advertising network alone could generate up to $1 billion in high-margin sales. Third, they strongly defend their core menu through their "Best Burger" initiative, as they call it.
This initiative aims to improve the quality of bread and cooking processes. They are also launching the new "Big Arch" burger for those with a big appetite, and expanding their hand-breaded chicken selection for those who prefer it.
他们甚至提供富含蛋白质的产品，以满足服用GLP-1药物的消费者的需求，这有点奇怪。众所周知，如今很多人服用GLP-1，而且这个数字很可能继续上升，尤其是随着Eli Lilly等公司提供的产品显示出惊人的效果。
They even offer protein-rich products to meet the needs of consumers taking GLP-1 medications, which is a bit strange . As we know, many people are taking GLP-1 these days, and that number is likely to continue to rise, especially with products offered by companies like Eli Lilly and others, which show amazing results.
重要的是，服用GLP-1的人往往会失去肌肉量。帮助防止这种情况的一种方法是多吃蛋白质。当然，你应该锻炼和举重，但另一种方法是尽量多吃蛋白质。因此，由于市场快速增长，已经有很多公司瞄准这个市场。
很多人经常光顾。因此，许多公司正试图通过提供更多富含蛋白质的产品来瞄准它。当然，麦当劳也不例外。
The important thing is that people who take GLP-1 tend to lose muscle mass. One way to help prevent this is to eat more protein. Of course, you should exercise and lift weights, but another way is to try to eat more protein.
So, there are already many companies targeting this market due to its rapid growth. Many people frequent it. Therefore, many companies are trying to target it by offering more protein-rich products. Of course, McDonald's is no exception.
此外，麦当劳在房地产领域的巨大业务规模不容忽视，其全球45,000家餐厅中约95%以特许经营制度运营。这意味着麦当劳拥有或租赁其餐厅所在的黄金地段，然后收取固定租金和与总销售额直接相关的高利润率收入。
In addition, the enormous size of McDonald's business in the real estate sector cannot be overlooked, as approximately 95% of its 45,000 restaurants worldwide operate under a franchise system.
This means that McDonald's owns or leases the prime land on which its restaurants are located, and then receives fixed rents and revenues with high profit margins directly linked to total sales.
这是一种更赚钱的结构，使其能够实现超过45%的高营业利润率，年度自由现金流在70亿至80亿美元之间。这种强劲的现金流正是他们上个月取得历史性成就的主要原因——当时他们宣布连续第50年提高年度股息，正式将麦当劳加冕为“股息女王”。
It is a more profitable structure that allows it to achieve high operating margins exceeding 45%, with annual free cash flow ranging between $7 billion and $8 billion. This strong cash flow is the main reason behind their historic achievement last month, when they announced a 50th consecutive annual dividend increase, officially crowning McDonald's as the queen of dividends.
此外，由于股价大幅下跌，股息率现在已超过3%，对于这一领域的领先公司来说，这是非常有吸引力的水平。
In addition, due to the significant price decrease, the dividend yield now exceeds 3%, which is a very attractive rate for a leading company in this field.
目前唯一让我还不能买入这只股票的原因，就是增长率偏低，而且即便在下跌之后，价格仍然相对偏高。现在，市盈率至少比过去五年的平均水平低23%。因此，我理解为什么投资者会关注这次下跌，并考虑买入股票，以确保在这些价位上获得股息。
The only reason that prevents me from buying the stock yet is simply the low growth rate and relatively high price even after the decline. Now, the price-to-earnings ratio is at least 23% lower than its average over the past five years.
Therefore, I understand why investors are looking at this decline and considering buying shares to ensure they receive dividends at these levels.
然而，市盈率仍比行业平均水平高出20%以上。而且，在我看来，这只股票一直相当独特，但与其他更便宜、在我看来折价幅度更大的股票相比，我看不到它有巨大的未来增长潜力。
However, the price-to-earnings ratio is still more than 20% higher than the industry average. And what was, in my opinion, always a rather distinctive stock, I don't see in it great future growth potential compared to other stocks that are cheaper and have larger discounts, in my opinion.
因此，我想我会把它排在第四位，紧随Netflix之后，同时我会把Comcast下调一位，以与之对应。
Therefore, I think I would put it in fourth place, right after Netflix, while I would lower Comcast one place to match .