$MCD · Dividendology · 2026-10-27
MCD 此次股息上调 4%，约为其历史上 7-7.5% 增速的一半；营收停滞在 250-260 亿美元附近，第二季度全球同店销售仅增长 1.3%。按 5% 增速假设的股息贴现模型给出的估值为 215 美元，较当前股价低约 14%；其 3.11% 的股息率也落后于 10 年期美国国债的 5%，而国债收益率主导着其类债券、重房地产的估值。
逐段跳播
第一家刚刚宣布提高股息的公司是麦当劳，涨幅为4%。所以，从技术上讲，这次股息增长超过了通胀率。事实上，麦当劳在过去一年里遭受了很大冲击。它下跌了约19%，相对接近52周最低水平。
the first stock that just announced an increase in dividends is McDonald's, with an increase of 4%. So, it is an increase in dividends that technically exceeds the inflation rate .
In fact, McDonald's has suffered a lot over the past year. It has fallen by about 19%, and is relatively close to its lowest level in 52 weeks.
看看该股年初至今的表现，它下跌了约18%，而如果看五年走势图，情况也好不到哪里去。你可以看到它只上涨了6%。因此，计入通胀后的实际回报几乎持平，或者说是略微负回报。不过，以当前价格交易显著提高了它的初始回报率。
如果我们接着看股息明细表，数据由Ticker Data提供，现在初始收益率正好是3%。有趣的是看看麦当劳的历史回报率。它一直更接近2%的区间。所以实际上，除了2020年，这是他们自2016年以来达到的最高初始回报率之一。这对麦当劳来说是一个独特的场景。
Looking at the stock's performance since the beginning of the year, it has fallen by about 18%, and the situation doesn't look much better if you look at the five-year chart. You can see that it has only increased by 6%.
Therefore, in terms of real returns including inflation, they are practically at parity, or rather a slightly negative return . However, trading at these prices significantly enhances its initial return .
If we move on to the dividend breakdown sheet , the data is loaded thanks to Ticker Data, and now the initial yield is exactly 3% . What is interesting here is to look at the historical return of McDonald's.
It has always been much closer to the 2% range. So, in fact, with the exception of 2020, this is one of the highest initial returns they have achieved since 2016. This is a unique scenario for McDonald's.
从历史上看，他们一直以7%到7.5%的速度增加这些派息。那么，这告诉我们什么？它告诉我们，最近这次股息增长低于他们习惯的历史增长率。那么，这只股票怎么了？好吧，有几点我们需要指出。
麦当劳的收入和利润增长在过去几年明显放缓，尤其是去年。如果我们切换到股票分析工具看看麦当劳，你会注意到过去三年收入明显停滞。它一直停留在250亿到260亿美元的区间，利润也没有显著扩张。
此外，你会注意到他们目前将约70%的自由现金流用于支付股息。公平地说，这曾是这只股票的历史区间，但公司仍在消耗大量资本来维持、支付和增加这些派息。第二季度，全球同店销售额仅增长1.3%，其中美国仅增长0.8%。
Historically, they have increased those distributions at a rate of between 7% and 7.5%. So, what does that tell us ? He tells us that this latest increase in dividends is less than the historical growth rate they are used to.
So, what's happening with this stock? Okay, there are a few things we need to point out. McDonald's revenue and profit growth has slowed considerably over the past few years, especially in the last year.
If we switch to a stock analysis tool and take a look at McDonald's, you'll notice that revenues have stagnated significantly over the past three years. It remained in the range of $25 to $26 billion, and profits did not see significant expansion either.
Furthermore, you will notice that they currently use about 70% of their free cash flow to pay dividends. To be fair, this was the historical range for this stock, but the company is still consuming a lot of its capital to maintain, pay, and increase these distributions.
In the second quarter, comparable global sales rose by only 1.3%, including just 0.8% in the United States.
但也许最重要的是从更广阔、更全面的角度来看。将麦当劳股票与10年期债券收益率进行比较时，你会注意到一个现象：我们看到了几乎完全的逆转。当10年期美国国债收益率上升时，麦当劳股票相应下跌。
有趣的是，如果我们看上个月，麦当劳略有改善。该股上涨了约6%，但讽刺的是，我们面临着完全相同的案例研究。10年期债券收益率下降了。所以，如果我们去treasurybonds.com看看收益率曲线。
让我们仔细看看美国10年期收益率。你可以看到，就在过去一个月里，10年期收益率下降了。那么，为什么会这样？原因是麦当劳具有类似债券的特征，最显著的是预期现金流。尽管现金流没有高速增长，但过去几年相对稳定。
与此同时，麦当劳现在已成为“股息之王”股票之一。人们常常为了回报而买入股票。但如果收入实际上没有增长，你为什么要买入收益率为3.11%的麦当劳股票，而同时你可以从10年期美国国债获得5%的收益率？
但更重要的是，请记住麦当劳主要是一家房地产公司。因此，更高的利率意味着高得多的借贷成本，这显然会对公司的基本面产生重大影响。因此，国债收益率对麦当劳股票的估值和我们看到的价格走势起着关键作用。
But perhaps the most important thing is to look at it from a broader, holistic perspective. One thing you'll notice when comparing McDonald's stock to the yield on a 10-year bond is that we've seen an almost complete reversal.
When the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds rose, McDonald's stock fell accordingly . What's interesting here is that if we look at last month, McDonald's has seen a slight improvement.
The stock has risen by about 6%, but ironically, we are facing the exact same case study. The yield on 10- year bonds has fallen. So, if we go to treasurybonds.com, and take a look at the yield curve.
Let's take a closer look at the US 10-year yield. You can see here, just over the past month, that the 10-year yield has declined. Now, why is this happening ? Well, the reason is that McDonald's has characteristics similar to bonds , most notably expected cash flows.
Although cash flows are not growing at a high rate, they have been relatively stable over the past few years. Meanwhile, McDonald's has now become one of the "dividend kings " stocks.
People often buy a stock for the return. But why would you buy McDonald's stock with a 3.11% yield if revenues aren't actually growing, when at the same time you can get a 5% yield on 10-year Treasury bonds ?
But more importantly, keep in mind that McDonald's is primarily a real estate company . Therefore, higher interest rates mean much higher borrowing costs, which will clearly have a significant impact on the company's fundamentals.
Therefore, Treasury yields play a key role in the valuation and price movement of McDonald's stock that we see.
即使我们通过股息贴现模型的视角来看，我们接下来看看股息贴现模型。如果我们仔细看，会注意到即使我们假设麦当劳股息未来增长5%——这在短期内是一个非常慷慨的假设——该股每股也只值215美元。
这比当前价格下跌14%。所以，即使该股以过去五年最低的盈利倍数之一交易，你可以看到这是有原因的。我们所在的利率环境已经发生了巨大变化。麦当劳受到了严重影响。收入和利润增长明显放缓，这证明较低的估值是合理的，此外更高的国债收益率也证明较低的估值是合理的。
看到股息增长大约只有历史水平的一半，这当然不令人鼓舞。
Even if we look at it through the lens of the dividend discount model , we will move on to take a look at the dividend discount model. If we look closely , we will notice that even if we assume a 5% future growth in McDonald's dividends , which is a very generous assumption in the short term, the stock is worth only $215 per share.
This represents a 14% decrease from current prices. So, even with the stock trading at one of its lowest earnings multiples in the past five years , you can see there's a reason for that.
The interest rate environment in which we operate has changed dramatically. McDonald's was severely affected by this . Revenue and profit growth has slowed considerably, justifying a lower valuation, in addition to higher Treasury bond yields which also justify a lower valuation.
It is certainly not encouraging to see dividend growth at roughly half of its historical levels.
这个频道对 $MCD 的历次判断
Dividendology 在这只股票上共 3 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。