MELI 是值得长期持有的强势标的；基于自由现金流的估值显示，较当前水平有显著上行空间。
逐段跳播
它如今最大的持仓是 Lululemon、Molina Healthcare 和 Mercado Libre。很无聊。没有什么故事。各位，关于 Lululemon 仅有的推文和仅有的故事都在说这家公司已经完了。全都是坏故事。
Its largest centers today are Lululemon, Molina Healthcare, and Mercado Libre. Boring. There is no story. Guys, the only tweets and the only stories about Lululemon say that this company is finished. They're all bad stories.
第二只股票，Mercado Libre，占 Perry 投资组合的 12%。这家公司本质上就是拉丁美洲的 Amazon。我从 Mercado Libre 上买东西，非常方便、简单。
我们在墨西哥有房产，我在那里的时候，想订什么东西，都很容易送到。
The second stock, " Mercado Libre," makes up 12% of Perry's portfolio. This company is essentially the " Amazon" of Latin America. I bought it from "Mercado Libre", and it is very convenient and easy.
We have properties in Mexico, and when I am there, if I want to order anything, it arrives very easily .
所以，这是一家市值 925 亿美元、企业价值 1300 亿美元的公司。这意味着 380 亿美元的债务。好消息是，他们去年实现了 124 亿美元的自由现金流。因此，他们大概能轻松应对。
So, it is a company with a market value of $92.5 billion and an institutional value of $130 billion. This means $38 billion in debt. The good news is that they achieved a free cash flow of $12.4 billion last year.
Therefore, they can probably handle that easily.
但有意思的是这个。他们去年产生了 124 亿美元的自由现金流。净利润却只有 18 亿。过去五年每年 60 亿美元。过去五年净利润却只有 13 亿。自由现金流和净利润之间存在显著差异，这就是为什么你看到市价与自由现金流之比为 7.5，而市盈率为 50。
But this is what's interesting. They generated $12.4 billion in free cash flow last year. Net income was only 1.8 billion. $6 billion annually over the past five years . Net income was only 1.3 billion over the last five years.
There is a significant discrepancy between free cash flow and net income, which is why you see a price-to- free cash flow ratio of 7.5 versus a P/E ratio of 50.
为什么他们的自由现金流与净利润相差如此之大？各位，资本回报率很高。去年 19%，过去五年每年 31%。毛利率不错，43%。看看营收增长率。10 年的增长率是 48%。5 年是 45%。
3 年期间是 40%。眼下，他们的利润率远低于我们希望的水平。这没关系。
Why does their free cash flow differ so much from their net income ? Guys, great returns on capital. 19 % last year, and 31% annually over the past five years. Good gross profit margin, 43%.
Look at the revenue growth rates . The growth rate over 10 years is 48%. For 5 years, 45%. For a period of 3 years it is 40%. Right now, their profit margin is much lower than we would like. That's okay .
现在，并非全是好事，但情况是这样的。在这一栏，流通股在过去五年总体上略有上升，上升了 0.66%。这不是每年百分之一，所以我会忽略它。记住，市盈率和市价与自由现金流之比差别很大，因为他们报告的自由现金流更高。
如果他们的自由现金流是真实的，我根本不在乎市盈率。它可以显示任何你想要的数值。因此，这只股票可能很快就会成为一只五栏股票。
Now, it's not all good , but here's what's happening. For this column, the outstanding shares have risen slightly, by 0.66% over the past five years overall. It's not one percent a year, so I'll ignore that.
Remember that the price-to-earnings ratio and the price-to- free-cash-flow ratio are very different because they report a higher free-cash flow. If their free cash flow is genuine, I don't even care about the price-to- earnings ratio.
It can display any value you want. Therefore, this stock could become a five-column stock very quickly .
分析师预计，每股收益将从今年的 38 美元升至未来四年的 175 美元。这非常巨大。绝对难以置信。自由现金流和净利润很可能已经变得更加接近。再看看营收增长。营收增长为 45%、28%、25%、30% 和 25%。
Analysts expect earnings to rise from $38 per share this year to $175 per share in the next four years. This is enormous. Absolutely incredible. It is likely that free cash flow and net income have become more closely aligned.
And look at the revenue growth. Revenue growth of 45%, 28% , 25%, 30%, and 25%.
我将对未来十年采用 10%、18% 和 26% 的营收增长率。无论以什么标准衡量，这都太高了。接下来是利润率和自由现金流。记住，我们关注自由现金流，因为它高得多。自由现金流是一家企业真正的命脉。
因此，我想要它高得多。所以，我设定自由现金流利润率为 28%、32% 和 36%。如你所见，情况正在改善。10 年的平均值从 29% 起步，5 年为 31%，一年为 35%。所以它持续改善。这可能是一个保守的估计，但我不介意。
I will use revenue growth rates of 10%, 18%, and 26% for the next ten years. That's too much by any measure. Next, profit margin and free cash flow . Remember, we focus on free cash flow because it is much higher.
Free cash flow is the true lifeblood of a business. Therefore, I want it much more . Therefore, I set free cash flow margins of 28%, 32%, and 36%. As you can see, the situation is improving.
The average for 10 years started at 29%, for 5 years at 31%, and for one year at 35%. So he continues to improve. This may be a conservative estimate, but I don't mind.
接下来是十年后的市盈率。凭借高资本回报率，以及作为拉丁美洲的 Amazon，我会给出 19、22 和 25。股价目前是 1831。各位，看看这个。基于自由现金流，我给出的低价是 5600，高价是 30000。平均价是 13000。
Next, the price-to- earnings ratio 10 years from now. With high returns on capital, and being the "Amazon" of Latin America, I would put 19, 22, and 25. The stock price is currently 1831.
Guys, look at this. Based on the free cash flow , I have a low price of 5600 and a high price of 30,000. An average price of 13,000.
现在，我必须回应这个问题：他们会与 Amazon 竞争吗？Amazon 会介入并取代他们吗？我不知道。这也许是他们最大的问题。或者，Amazon 会收购他们吗？这才是应该问的问题。
Now, I must address the question: Will they compete with Amazon? Will Amazon step in and replace them? I have no idea. That is perhaps their biggest problem. Or, could Amazon buy them? This is the question that should be asked.
这些数字看起来不合逻辑。我们这里说的是 40% 的回报。让我感兴趣的是，这看起来像是一家你会想长期持有的公司。Barry 似乎不是那种长期持有股票的人。他想找到短期的定价错误并加以利用。
These numbers seem illogical. We are talking about returns of 40% here. What interests me is that this looks like a company you'd want to own for a long time. Barry doesn't seem to be the type of person who holds onto stocks for long periods.
He wants to find short-term pricing errors and build on them.
这个频道对 $MELI 的历次判断
Everything Money 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。