$MELI · The Motley Fool · 2026-11-05
MELI是说话者最大的退休账户持仓，他并不担心投资周期导致的利润率下降：连续30个季度增长超过30%，本季为45%，而在信贷、物流和库存上的支出是为未来增长预付的现金，这种增长已在加速买家数和人均购买件数；广告同比增长超过50%。若这种加速失败，他才会担心。当周期结束时，利润率可能在一两个季度内跃升，不过股价可能已反映了这一复苏。
逐段跳播
Marcato Libre 算是最大的名字。总体看法是，CAD 连续30个季度实现了超过30%的增长。这次是45%，但现在这并不重要，因为他们仍处在投资周期中，这意味着利润率又下降了。
我们跟踪 Mercado Libre 已经相当长一段时间了，我们了解管理层的过往业绩，所以对他们现在的做法并不太意外。市场似乎仍然不相信他们所说的，这很令人惊讶，因为他们的过往业绩非常非常好。
所以，他们在投资、在扩张，他们在投资信贷组合，在扩张物流网络。当然，当你提供免费配送、扩张物流网络等等，当你为迎接假日季而增加库存，所有这些都需要提前投入现金，而这只会让未来的业务好得多。
如果这些投资没有转化为增长加速、买家增多、每位买家购买的商品增多，我本来会非常担心。如果这些没有发生，我会担心，但它确实在发生。一切都按照他们的计划进行，在向上、向右发展，所以只要业务在做它该做的事，我就不担心，而且显然它做得非常好。
当然，到了某个时点，是的，他们的投资周期会结束。当然，这和超大规模云厂商的投资周期不一样，但到了某个时点，Mercado Libre 的投资周期确实会放缓，然后是的，然后你会在一两个季度内看到利润率大幅跃升，但到那时股价很可能已经反映了这种回升。
所以，我喜欢我听到的内容。广告业务也增长了，我想同比又超过50%。所以我很高兴。我很高兴，这实际上是我退休账户里最大的持仓，但只是今天。
Marcato Libre was kind of the biggest name. General thoughts were CAD liberate 30 consecutive quarters of over 30% growth. Uh this time was 45% but that doesn't matter right now because they're still in their investment cycle which means margins have come down again and and the explan we we follow Marcado Libra for quite a while.
We we know management's track record so we're not that surprised with what they're doing. the market still, I guess, doesn't believe what what they're saying, which is astonishing because their track record is is a very very good one.
So, they're investing, they're expanding um they're investing their credit portfolio, they're expanding the the the shipping network. Of course, when you offer free shipping, when you expand your logistics network and all of that, when you increase your inventory in preparation for the holiday season, all of these things are upfront cash that will just make the business in the future much better.
Um I would have been very worried if all of these investment did not translate in acceleration in growth in more buyers in more items sold per buyer. Um I would have been worried if that didn't happen but it is happening.
It it is all going according to their plan. It's going up and to the right and so I'm I'm not worried as long as the business does what it should be doing and and clearly clearly it's doing it's doing very well.
Now at one point at one point yes the investment cycle will come to an end for them. Of course it's not the same investment cycle as with the hyperscalers but at one point the investment cycle for Macad Libra does come to a a slowdown and then yes and then you'll see in just one or two quarters the margin profile jump but by then the stock would probably already reflect that uh that recovery.
So, I like what I heard. Advertising business has also grown what again over 50% I think year-over-year. So, I'm happy. I'm I'm a happy it's it's actually my largest position, my retirement account, but today.
这个频道对 $MELI 的历次判断
The Motley Fool 在这只股票上共 4 条判断，这里只列相邻的几条。