META 被低估，DCF 分析支持继续买入，预计未来三年年增长率为 15-22.6%。

We held investor days for Brookfield, Meta's stock rose by about 30%, and Meta hosted a "Connect" event.

Meta's stock has risen by about 30% from its lowest point last month, and many have asked me whether the stock looks too expensive now, whether it is no longer a buying opportunity, or whether it is time to sell.

Therefore, I will share my analysis of discounted cash flows and my thoughts on meta valuation near the end of this video. But first, there is a lot to discuss and many updates related to Meta stock.

The first thing I would like to clarify is that the recent rise in Meta's stock price is largely due to their successful launch of the Muse app, which we have all undoubtedly heard about by now .

This is Meta's strength in providing free distribution service throughout the United States, and even worldwide . As Meta continues to roll out Muse globally, it will be able to distribute the app almost for free, and advertise it across Instagram, WhatsApp and its other platforms, and even Facebook.

Now, let's talk about how Mark Zuckerberg plans to monetize Muse. So, what Mark Zuckerberg thinks is that Muse will generate revenue for its users, and then Meta takes a percentage of it."

Then, Meta can charge a real transaction fee if the transaction is made directly through Muse. In my opinion, the most obvious benefit of Meta's monetization plan for Muse lies in collecting more data about its users.

For example, users like me grant Meta access to their email, business data, subscriptions, searches, and more. If meta ad engines can be fed with this information, advertising return on investment will improve significantly.

I believe this is the real opportunity for Meta to make a profit.

Meta is also working on developing Muse for small businesses , by allowing more apps such as Shopify, Figma and Canva to connect to Muse to help manage your business and needs.

Muse can also connect to your Instagram and Facebook accounts and Meta Ads. I believe that by allowing companies to manage their advertising budgets and increase the return on advertising expenditure, Meta will eventually be able to generate more overall profits.

In fact, Amazon banned Meta's Muse from using its platforms for this reason.

Would you really go to Muse and say, "Find me the best place to stay on Airbnb," and then book it without thinking? It is true that I may use the Muse app to find the best products, but I think people still enjoy browsing through products, and consumers enjoy searching for the best deals and products.

Now, let's move on to the highlights of the Meta Connect conference. I know we're jumping between topics randomly, but as I mentioned, there's been a lot of new news about Meta since I last covered it and since my visit to Italy.

Muse is central to what Meta is currently building. It operates its entire business and all of its products. Meta aims to become the ultimate AI tool that will be used by billions of people and businesses.

Muse uses its own models to achieve all of this; it does not rely on Anthropic or OpenAI, nor does it generate the same amount of revenue for them.

I believe that Meta may reduce its revenues for Anthropic and OpenAI as it continues to develop and use its leading models.

Mark Zuckerberg also stated that new and more powerful models will be released soon. This is the watermelon model that the company has been teasing for a long time, and it looks like it will be at the forefront of technology, and in turn will enhance all of Meta's internal business.

Meta has shifted its focus from virtual reality and metaverse to building the best personal devices for superintelligence. Meta's new virtual reality glasses were so impressive that I want to own one because they look really cool.

As for the allure of Muse, I'm skeptical, because I don't think people would want to carry another device in their pockets to interact with, especially with our phones already in use.

Therefore, I am not convinced that Meta's new magic will be successful or will be of real value to Meta's work.

In general, MetaConnect did not address social media or advertising at all. The company explained that Meta seeks to create products that enable anyone to use artificial intelligence to their advantage, and aspires to become a leading device manufacturer, specifically the best company in this field for personal super-intelligence.

What I like about Meta, as a shareholder, is its continued diversification of its revenue streams. The company still has a highly profitable advertising business that generates hundreds of billions of dollars, but it appears to want to continue diversifying, developing its own models, and perhaps even selling its computing infrastructure, in addition to generating new revenue from hardware.

It appears that hardware revenues are experiencing tremendous growth and may witness widespread adoption.

I believe this will be beneficial to shareholders in the long run if revenue streams and cash flows are diversified away from advertising. The Muse app is a very useful application that is highly regarded even by non-technical people.

Meta has a wide and free distribution, which makes its spread faster than ChatGPT. Muse can collect valuable user data, which could improve Meta's advertising business and generate more cash flow.

Meta confirms that Muse is now the focus of all its activities.

Meta is also preparing to launch more powerful models soon, which could push its models to the forefront of innovation. Meta is developing devices that help everyone use artificial intelligence to improve their lives.

Meta launches software and business agents. Therefore, Meta appears to be leading the way in consumer-oriented artificial intelligence. Now, let's conclude the video by talking about my discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis for the Meta app.

This is the discounted cash flow (DCF) model that I have been using on Meta stock for the past two months, when I was aggressively increasing my stake in it at a price below $650.

As I mentioned earlier, Meta stock has become the third largest investment in my portfolio, and I am now making significant gains on it after its price rose again from $30, which is approximately 30% from its lowest point.

Therefore, in this model, I expect Meta's operating cash flow to grow by 15% annually over the next three years, and for it to trade at a price-to-operating cash flow ratio of 14.

Based on these data, I get a compound annual growth rate of approximately 15% for the stock price, a fair value of $827, and a future stock price of approximately $1,100 per share, which represents a return of 50% over the next three years.

However, I still believe this is a conservative discounted cash flow model, and even with these conservative metrics, I'm still getting a very strong compound annual growth rate of 15% over the next three years.

The reason I believe this model is conservative is that Meta is currently growing at a much faster pace than 15% annually, and its business appears to be gaining momentum.

Therefore, I believe that the 15% growth rate is less than what the company can actually achieve. If we raise this rate to 20% per annum, the compound annual rate of return will rise to about 20%.

Now, if we also look at Meta's historical price-to-operating-cash-flow ratio, we note that its average since 2019 is 16. The ratio I have in my discounted cash flow model is 14, which is lower than the company's historical averages.

Therefore, even if we raise the price-to-operating-cash-flow ratio to 15, which is still below the average of 16, the compound annual growth rate will rise to 22.6%.

The fair value of Meta's stock will rise to approximately US$1,000 per share. I believe this is a more realistic discounted cash flow model for Meta.

It is obviously not as conservative as the model I used in my channel, but I think it is more realistic because, as I mentioned, it is very possible to achieve 20% annual growth over the next three years, and a 15x operating cash flow ratio is still below Meta's historical average.

With these figures, we still have a compound annual growth rate of 22.6% for Meta's share price over the next three years. Therefore, I conclude that Meta stock is still undervalued, and when I have additional cash in my portfolio, I will still look forward to continuing to buy this stock.

To clarify, I bought my first MetaTrader stock at approximately $680 in February of this year. Since then, Meta's business has grown tremendously, and the stock price has risen by only about $40, or roughly 6 to 7%.

I know it may be difficult to continue buying a stock that has risen by 30%, but on a logical basis, I still believe that Meta stock is undervalued, and not even expensive. Even with the price-to-earnings ratio factored in, it is still only 23 times next year’s earnings, which is a very reasonable price for one of the best companies in the world, with a wide reach, a strong competitive advantage, annual growth of more than 20%, a pioneering model, and leadership in the field of artificial intelligence for consumer agents.

Therefore, this does not seem like an exorbitant price to me.

So, no, I don't think Meta's stock is currently overpriced, and I will most likely continue to increase my stake in it and add more shares whenever I can. I am currently experiencing a shortage of liquidity, and as I mentioned, I would like to increase my liquidity because I am about to buy a new house, and then I have to sell my current house, which entails some costs.

Therefore, I am currently saving some cash for my personal needs. But when I have more liquidity, I will most likely continue to increase my stake in Meta, assuming its price remains within the low price range that I deem appropriate.