META是AI领域的顶级赢家;强劲的现金流为AI提供资金且无债务风险,广泛的渠道分发推动采用。
逐段跳播
我会解释为什么我认为Google和Meta是两家最有条件在人工智能领域胜出的公司。
And I will explain why I believe that Google and Meta are the two companies best positioned to win in the field of artificial intelligence.
在这一时期,Mark Zuckerberg经历了一场彻底的转变。它在数据中心、购买处理器和训练模型上花费了数百亿美元,即便不是数千亿,还利用其员工并监控他们工作中最细微的细节来向他们学习。
他甚至彻底改变了公司的方向,把Facebook和Instagram的资源投入到成为人工智能领域的领导者上。
During this period, Mark Zuckerberg underwent a radical transformation. It spent tens, if not hundreds, of billions of dollars on data centers, purchasing processors, and training its models, using its employees and monitoring the smallest details of their work to learn from them.
He went so far as to completely change the direction of his company and dedicate Facebook and Instagram's resources to becoming leaders in artificial intelligence.
然后他带着一款产品亮相,Muse。Muse做对了一些事情。Muse不像ChatGPT那样令人困惑。在ChatGPT里,当你输入内容时,你会发现必须激活不同的选项才能选择合适的模板。
对于大多数不是AI专家的人来说,他们甚至不知道该用哪个模型。因此,这给普通人使用OpenAI工具时造成了困惑,但在Muse里你没有这个问题。你只需输入你的问题,它就会给你一个很好的答案。
Muse还有这个可爱又俏皮的小吉祥物,一个与你交谈、在你使用产品时与你建立某种关系的朋友。它很讨喜,而且可以按你想要的任何方式更改和定制。与ChatGBT或Anthropic相比,这些是Muse做出的惊人改进。
Then he appeared with one product, Muse. Muse did some things right. Muse wasn't as confusing as ChatGPT. In ChatGPT, when you enter it , you will find different options that you must activate to choose the appropriate template.
For most people who are not AI specialists , they don't even know which model to use. Therefore, this causes confusion for the average person when using OpenAI tools, but in Muse you don't have that .
You just type your question and it gives you a great answer . Muse also has this cute and playful little mascot, a friend that talks to you and builds some sort of relationship with you while you use the product.
It's nice and can be changed and customized any way you want. These were amazing modifications made by Muse compared to ChatGBT or Anthropic.
而Meta如此以消费者为中心,以至于它为普通用户创造了一款非常精简且有吸引力的产品。Muse的增长很迅速。事实上,有报道显示,Muse如今的增长速度快于ChatGBT最初推出时的速度。
While Meta was so consumer-focused that it created a very streamlined and appealing product for the average user. Muse's growth was rapid. In fact, reports show that Muse's growth today is proceeding at a faster pace than when ChatGBT was first launched .
然而,还有另一件事正在发生,让我对这两家公司尤其乐观,即Google和Meta。我在这两家公司上已全额投入。我在Google和Meta之间合计投资了40万美元。这说明在这件事上判断正确对我来说有多么重要。
但我认为Google和Meta有望成为人工智能领域最大的赢家,甚至超过Anthropic和OpenAI。
However, there is something else happening that makes me more optimistic about these two companies in particular, Google and Meta. I am fully invested in these two companies. I have a combined investment of $400,000 between Google and Meta.
This illustrates how important it is for me to be right about this matter. But I think Google and Meta are poised to be the biggest winners in the field of artificial intelligence, even more so than Anthropic and OpenAI.
现在,把这与Google和Meta的情况相比。Google和Meta的服务是免费的。
Now, compare that to the situation with Google and Meta. Google and Meta services are free.
对于Meta来说,他们不需要从Muse产生收入。Meta没有能力偿还堆积如山的债务。Meta一开始就不是靠债务为这一切融资的。他们借款很少,其人工智能雄心几乎全部由来自Facebook和Instagram的现金流提供资金。
你看,Meta拥有这些每天产生现金利润的其他公司这一优势。堆积如山的现金将为人工智能领域的这一巨大机会提供资金。
With Meta, they don't need to generate revenue from Muse. Meta is not in a position to pay off a mountain of debt. Meta does not finance all of this with debt in the first place.
They have borrowed very little, and almost all of their AI ambitions are funded by their cash flows from Facebook and Instagram. Look, Meta has the advantage of owning these other companies that generate cash profits every day.
Mountains of cash are going to fund this enormous opportunity in the field of artificial intelligence.
而在最近的一档播客中,就在几天前,Mark Zuckerberg恰恰谈到了这一点。他说,有些公司将在人工智能领域受到巨大影响。但他说,对Meta来说基本上没有风险。如果人工智能行不通,他们不会淹没在债务中,公司不会陷入困境,他们不会破产或诸如此类的事情。在这种情况下没有真正的压力。
And in a recent podcast, just a few days ago, Mark Zuckerberg talked about exactly that. He said that there are companies that will be greatly affected in the field of artificial intelligence.
But he says that with Meta there is essentially no risk. If artificial intelligence doesn't work, they are not drowning in debt, the company is not in trouble, they will not go bankrupt or anything like that . There is no real pressure in this situation.
与此同时,他们可以给用户大量免费使用。他们可以创造一款非常精简的产品来获得大规模的用户采用,而Meta在从免费产品中产生利润方面表现尤为出色。这就是他们在Facebook和Instagram上所做工作的本质。
他们已经证明了自己利用免费产品赚取大量金钱的能力。但与此同时,他们有能力在人工智能领域亏损很长时间,比OpenAI或Anthropic长得多。
At the same time, they can give users a huge amount of free use. They can create a very streamlined product to gain massive user adoption, and Meta excels significantly in generating profit from free products.
This is the essence of their work on Facebook and Instagram. They have proven their ability to make a lot of money using free products. But at the same time, they can afford to lose money in the field of artificial intelligence for a very long time, much longer than OpenAI or Anthropic.
你看,Meta的优势在于拥有一个不断增长的巨大存钱罐,钱从中源源不断地流出。Instagram和Facebook可以为他们的AI努力提供资金,直到ChatGPT耗尽资金。从而使他们的报价相对于他们提供的价值而言缺乏竞争力。
Look, Meta has the advantage of having a huge piggy bank that is constantly growing, and money flows from it without stopping. Instagram and Facebook can fund their AI efforts until ChatGPT runs out of money .
So that they make their offers uncompetitive compared to the value they provide.
这正是Muse为Meta所做的事。所以,这两家公司,Google和Meta,没有条件急于从他们的应用中获利。或者,他们可以寻求获取巨大的市场份额。他们可以在每一步都压低Anthropic和OpenAI的价格。而定价只是我认为他们会成为赢家的原因之一。
This is exactly what Muse does for Meta. So, these two companies, Google and Meta, are not in a position to rush into making profits from their applications. Alternatively, they could seek to acquire a huge market share.
They can undermine the prices of Anthropic and OpenAI at every turn. And pricing is just one aspect of the reasons why I believe they will be winners.
除了这些公司所面临的财务现实上的差异之外,还有另一个原因让我相信Google和Meta有很大机会成为最大的人工智能公司和最大的赢家。
Aside from the differences in the financial reality these companies face, there is another reason that leads me to believe that Google and Meta have a great opportunity to become the biggest AI companies and the biggest winners.
你可能会说,信任不是Meta的强项。事实上,许多人不信任这家公司。我稍后会处理这一点。
You might say that trust is not a strength of Meta. In fact, many people do not trust this company. I'll deal with that in a little while.
但还有 Meta,许多调查显示人们并不信任它,人们对它有着强烈的反感。这在很大程度上源于媒体的框定。有 37 亿不信任 Meta 的人每天登录或使用它的某个应用。他们每天使用它的聊天服务、在 Meta 上发布照片、在 Instagram 上发帖、阅读并提供信息。
这些行为远比少数几个公开表示不喜欢 Meta 的人的民意调查更有说服力。在我看来,我认为 Meta 将赢得消费者的信任。
But you have Meta, which many surveys say people don't trust. They have a strong aversion to it. Much of this is due to media framing . 3.7 billion people who do not trust Meta log in or use one of their apps every day.
They use their chat services, post pictures on Meta, post on Instagram, read, and provide information every day. These actions speak far louder than a few opinion polls of people who outwardly dislike Meta .
When I look at it, I think Meta will gain the trust of consumers.
但它拥有的另一个优势,是 Anthropic 和 ChatGPT 正试图获得的,那就是分发渠道。如今,ChatGPT 拥有庞大的分发渠道,但这也是一个问题。你看,就 Meta 而言,它无处不在。
Meta 拥有 WhatsApp 应用,Muse 几乎无处不在。然后 Meta 还有 Instagram 应用,Muse 就在你信息流的顶部。他们正把它整合进 Instagram。
然后还有 Facebook,很多人仍在使用它。我知道年轻人用得不多,但很多人仍在使用 Facebook,Meta 已经把 Muse 整合了进去。Muse 的广告被穿插其中。就日活用户而言,Meta 拥有最大的分发渠道,可能超过世界上任何其他公司。
But the other advantage it has, which Anthropic and ChatGPT are trying to gain, is distribution. Now, ChatGPT has a large distribution, but that's also a problem. Look, as far as Meta is concerned, they have it everywhere.
Meta owns the WhatsApp application, where Muse appears almost everywhere. Then Meta has an Instagram app, where Muse is at the top of your news feed . They are integrating it into Instagram.
Then you have Facebook , which many people still use. I know young people don't use it much, but many people still use Facebook, and Meta has integrated Muse into it . Advertisements for Muse were placed intertwined with it.
Meta has the largest distribution in terms of daily users, probably more than any other company in the world.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 6 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。