Meta 广泛的消费者分发网络使其在推出 AI 智能体(如 Muse)时具备竞争优势,可通过免费访问实现,尽管存在与强制性高资本开支相关的风险。
逐段跳播
这可能是一个隶属于Meta的代理。或者Muse,或者任何其他代理。尽管OpenAI昨天推出了她的代理,而且它似乎更专注于企业客户,这对Meta有利。
This might be The agent is affiliated with Meta. Or Muse, or any other agent. Although OpenAI launched Her agent yesterday, and it seems It focuses more on Corporate clients, which Good for Meta.
而且有趣的是,这也是假设的一部分,Meta的积极之处在于它拥有一个广泛面向消费者的分销网络,最后一个几乎不被任何其他公司拥有。所以它简直处于最佳位置,可以在市场上推出像Muse这样的产品并从中受益。
And from Interesting Also, that this was Part of the hypothesis The positive aspect of Meta is that It has a distribution network Widely available to consumers The final one is not owned by any Almost another company.
So it is simply in Best position to launch a product Like Muse in the market And to benefit from it.
我认为,例如,当我们报道Meta的新闻时,这是我最大的担忧之一。这同样适用于Alphabet,或者例如Amazon,例如,Meta被认为是一个很好的例子。2022年,在市场对Metaverse的负面反应和支出之后,他们说:好吧,2023年,我们有一个效率之年。
对吧?我们花的钱少得多。然后我们突然看到,在接下来的两年里,至少有200亿或300亿美元的现金流,这些以前并不存在。但现在,你需要在接下来的十年里花费一定数量的钱。因此,你不能简单地说“好吧,回报没有像我们希望的那样进展。
因此,我们必须从过度资本主义的支出政策中退缩。”你实际上必须花那笔钱,因为它与合同绑定。这就是对我来说可怕的地方,你感觉自己几乎被迫去实现你想象的回报,因为你被这笔钱的花费所约束,无论它是否奏效。
I think, on For example, when We were covering Meta news, This was one of the biggest My fears. And this applies The same on Alphabet, or Amazon, for example For example, where it is considered Meta is a good example.
In 2022, after responses The negative action of The market and spending on Metaverse, they said: Well, in 2023, We have a year of efficiency. Isn't that right? We spent Much less money. "then We suddenly saw flows Cash worth 20 or 30 At least one billion dollars During the two years Those coming, were not It already existed.
But Now, you need to Spending a certain amount of Money over the years The next ten. Therefore, You can't simply say "Well, the returns don't It's going as we hoped. Therefore, we must back down from Spending policy Excessive capitalism.
You actually have to spend That money because It is tied to a contract." This is it The scary thing for For me, where you feel like almost forced to Achieving the returns that Imagine it because you are obligated By spending this money, whether Whether it worked or not.
例如,我们与Meta公司谈过由Blue Owl资助的数据中心,他们必须通过在大约十年的时间里支付租金来保证该数据中心的特定价值。所以,即使事情不奏效,这件事仍将具有约束力。通过支付十年。
on For example, we talked With Meta Company about the center Data funded by Through Blue Owl, where They had to guarantee the value Specific to this center By paying rent over a period of time Approximately ten years.
So, even if it doesn't work The matter will remain binding. By paying for ten years.
我认为这是可怕的一面。因此,我认为原因还在于Muse产品在市场上出现时广受好评,人们相信他们终于找到了一个看起来足够好的解决方案,足以与一些其他实验室竞争。他们看到这就是你可以将Meta人工智能整合到其产品中的方式。
I think this is The scary side. Therefore The reason, I think, is also Muse product met Highly acclaimed in The market when it emerged, where People believed that They finally arrived at A solution that seems good given Enough to compete with some Other laboratories.
They saw that this was The way you can It contains meta-integration intelligence Artificial in its product.
据了解,Meta有30亿用户。此外,用户与在Meta上做广告的企业之间存在联系。我认为这是Meta长期享有的主要区别或最重要的特征,而X并不自己拥有这一命运。
As Learn, Meta 3 Billions of users. In addition, There is a link between Users and businesses Which is advertised on Meta. And I think this is The main difference or The most important feature that Meta enjoys it on Long term, which X does not own it himself fate.
如果你把它比较,例如与OpenAI比较,Meta的优势在于他们不需要从中获利,不是吗?是这样吗?好吧,他们最终会需要,他们谈到了一个模式,例如,他们将从你在Muse期间购买的东西中抽取一定比例。但他们现在并不需要从中获利。
If you compare it, for example For example, with OpenAI, which is What represents an advantage for Meta is that They do not need The profit from that, isn't it? like that? Good, They will need that in The end, and they spoke Regarding a model where, on For example, they will take A percentage of what you buy from During Muse. But they are not Need to profit from it now.
这为Meta留下了广泛的空间,也可以让这项服务免费。举例来说,如果她问我,相比 Grok,会有多少人使用 Meta 的 Muse?我相信 Muse 的用户数量会大得多。
Which leaves room Widely used by Meta, Which can also make This service is free. For example, if She asked me, how many People who They will use Muse from Meta Compared to Grok?
I believe The number of Muse users It will be much bigger.
是的,我不认为 Grok 这个品牌及其与普通大众的关系有 Muse 那么好。至少就目前而言是这样。但不,我觉得有趣的是,做这件事的是 Meta,Alice?是这样吗?因为 Meta 是一家社交媒体公司,不是吗?
是这样吧?归根结底,他们是在广告销售领域。他们不是做节目制作、以及学习的那类公司,在那里你会把它们连接起来,自动创建一个代理,它会带回、构建你的整个生活,而我完成了它。
Yes, I don't think that Brand Grok and its relationships The general public is as good as Muse. At least for the time being present. But no, I think that The exciting thing Interestingly, Meta is Who is doing this, Alice?
like that? Because Meta is a company Social media, isn't it? like that? In the end, they In the field of advertising sales . They are not a group Production programs, as well as Learn, where you will connect them Automatically create an agent It would bring back Structuring your entire life And I completed it.
Meta 这件事看起来很奇怪,因为我在想:我该不该把灵魂卖给 Facebook?还有 Instagram?除非他们拥有关于我的足够数据?现在他们获得了更多数据,像 Meta 这类公司,它的名声很差。一直都是这样。
It seems strange with Meta, because I wonder: Should I sell my soul to Facebook? And Instagram? unless They have sufficient data About me? "Now they get More data, This type of company Like Meta, he has a reputation Bad. It has always been like that.
所以我觉得他们仍在花掉所有那些钱,但正如我之前提到的,看起来他们想进入市场中的基础设施领域。我不知道他们为什么不这么做。我相信他们本可以做到,然而,他们并没有完全放弃模型本身,这一点我不完全理解。
但我现在会感到意外,如果他们发布一个足够好的代理。我的意思是,也许他们会推出一个代理,但一个足够好、能竞争的代理。我几乎看不到这一点。我的意思是,他们几乎必须这么做。
So I feel that they are They are still spending all that Money, but as As I mentioned earlier, it seems They want to enter the sector Infrastructure in The market. I don't know why They don't.
I believe That they could have done That, however, did not They completely give up The model itself, which is a I don't fully understand it. But I would be surprised now if They released a good agent Enough.
I mean, maybe They launch an agent, but A good enough agent To compete. I don't see that almost. I mean, almost They have to do that.
但我也认为,我们在过去两年里在人工智能领域部分看到的情况是,如果你是第一个推出新产品的人,正是如此,不是吗?这会帮到你。看起来好像它仍然是一种商品,但它会帮到你。所以,Meta 所遵循的方法,例如,没有把它整合进 Meta 应用的主页面,而是作为一个独立应用,我认为这很重要,而且它取得了巨大成功。
例如,Meta AI 一直存在于 WhatsApp 和 Instagram,也许还有 Facebook,但没有人用它。然后这个新应用出现了。从技术上讲,这个应用帮助了 Meta 的分发,但是在主应用之外。它取得了巨大成功。
But I also think that What we saw partially in field of intelligence artificial during The past two years, he If you are the first In launching a new product Exactly, isn't that right?
This will help you. It seems It's as if he doesn't It is still a commodity, but It helps you. So, the method Which Meta followed, on For example, by not Integrating it into Meta applications Main page, but as an application Independent, I think it It was important and it was accomplished.
A great success. For example Meta AI was present in WhatsApp and Instagram, and perhaps in Facebook all the time, but No one used it. Then he appeared This is the new app. Technically speaking, This app helped in Meta distribution, but outside Main applications. And he achieved great success.
看起来 Meta 的界面非常好,它的品牌也很成功。如你所知,我不想说他们拥有领先优势,因为技术领域的领先优势可能是暂时的。但没错,他们拥有所有这些当前的关注度。
It seems that Meta's interface is very good. and its brand Successful. As you know, no I want to say that they have The advantage of leadership, because The advantage of leadership in the field Technology may be Temporary.
But yes, they They have all this Current interest.
不是这样吗?它被用于购物的人,这让我想起我们在《Meta》那一集里谈到的,在那里每个像素随着时间推移都变成应用内的广告。意思是,举例来说,五年之后,你不需要在“Meta”或 Instagram 上看到普通广告,而是会看到一张图片,然后你看到一件你喜欢的夹克。
从技术角度看,使用合适的人工智能,你可以简单地在应用内问:这件夹克叫什么?我在哪里能买到?因此,它把每一张图片和每一段视频都转化为你所看到的所有产品的广告。而从技术角度看,她可能会问:那会对 Meta 的广告价格产生什么影响?
因为他们目前是拍卖系统。不是这样吗?这意味着需求增加至少会在短期内导致广告费率下降。在这种情况下,如果继续展示普通广告,但他们从费用或购买特定产品时的价格中切掉一部分,广告价格在启动时不会改变,对吧?
至少在竞价机制中不会。所以,我预计他们会反复采用这种方法。
Isn't that so? He uses it People shopping, and this It reminds me of what we talked about In the episode "Meta", where Each pixel turns into Announcing over time Within the app.
Meaning This, for example, That after five years, it will not You need to see an ad Normal on "Meta" or Instagram," but you will see A picture, then you see a jacket You like it.
From the perspective Technology, using artificial intelligence Suitable, you can Simply put, the question is inside Application: What is the name of this? The jacket? Where can I Buy it?
Thus, it transforms Every picture and every video to Advertisement for all products Which you see. And from From a technical standpoint, it may She wonders: What impact will that have?
On advertising prices In Meta? Because they have Currently, it's an auction system. Isn't that so? This means Increased demand will lead to At least in the long term Short, to decrease Advertising rates. in In this case, if Continue to show Regular advertisements, But they cut off a part From fees or price When purchasing a particular product, Prices will not change Ads on Launch, right?
At least not in a mechanism Bidding. So, I expect that they resort to this The method is used repeatedly.
还有其他的,我认为我刚才谈到的 Meta,是唯一一家其广告业务不会因代理而发生根本性变化的公司。因为我浏览 Instagram 时不是去购物的。我的意思是,我告诉过你,有时我去 Instagram 只是为了看广告,但一般来说人们不会用 Instagram 去购买任何产品,对吧?
我的意思是,更像是你在浏览短视频或图片或其他任何东西时看到广告,而且你玩得很开心。但如果你进入 Amazon,你是想购物。所以,你浏览产品,那一刻你看到你给它做广告,然后你就买了。
立刻买,因为你现在就想买点东西。我认为这些广告很难被取代。至于 Meta,情况不同,因为即使 Amazon 上的广告停了、失效了,我仍然会去 Instagram。我仍然会看到他们产品的广告和小型企业的招牌广告。
也就是说,从技术角度看,他们是投资者,正如我们在那一集里也谈到的。如果你在 Meta 上做广告,那么你是想实现即时回报。所以,想法是你看到广告就立刻买。但广告引擎会继续运转。即使你使用 Uber。
举例来说,想法是看到你想要的东西的广告,通过立即消费它,然后你点它。如果你不回头,Uber 被用来浏览广告,它就不会是有效的广告模板。这同样适用于 Google。如果我想搜索另一个地方的餐厅,你会看到广告,想法是立即点击它。
因此,我认为 Meta 可能变了,而这就是过去大约两周里发生的事。我从一家精通人工智能、同时作为该领域极少数公司之一受其影响的公司,变成了……至少看起来是这样。现在的情况就是这样。
事情变化很快。这很大,但我认为这就是 Meta 和模型公司目前的情况,它的广告相比许多其他公司而言。
And others, I think Meta Which I talked about Just now, the company The only one that doesn't happen A radical change in Her advertising work from Through agents. Because I When I browse Instagram I don't go shopping.
Meaning I told you that sometimes Go to Instagram To view ads Only, but generally people They don't use Instagram To purchase any products, correct ? I mean, it's more like That you are viewing ads While browsing For short videos Or pictures or anything else And you're having a great time.
But if you enter Amazon, you want shopping. So, you Browse the products, and That moment you see You advertise it and then buy it. Immediately because you want to buy Something now.
I think that These ads are difficult Defend it. As for As for Meta, the matter It's different, because even if The ads stopped on Amazon is out of work, I will remain Go to Instagram.
I will keep seeing ads Their products and advertisements Building signs Small business. That is, they are investors from From a technical standpoint, as We talked about that in The episode too. if You advertised on Meta, so you You want to achieve an immediate return.
So, the idea is that you You see the advertisement and buy it. Immediately, but the engine The ads will continue to run. Even if you use Uber. For example The idea is to see Advertisement for something you want By consuming it immediately, then You ask for it.
If you don't return Uber is used for browsing Advertisements, it will not be Ad template Effective. And this applies The same thing on Google. if I wanted to search for a restaurant in Another place, you will see The advertisement, and the idea is Click on it immediately.
Therefore, I think Meta may It changed, and this is what happened. In about two weeks. I moved from a company that mastered artificial intelligence, At the same time, She is affected by it, as one of Very few companies In this field. on At least that's what it seems.
That's the situation now. Things change quickly. It's big, but I think that This is the current situation Meta and Model Company Its advertisements compared Many companies The other.
我喜欢投资的这一方面。我想补充一点,正如我们在 Meta 那一轮里提到的,我更喜欢投资一家其收入没有大约一半依赖于 Anthropic 人工智能的公司。举例来说,Meta 不依赖它们。
它没有那种基于云的计算业务,因此没有来自一家目前收入超过 400 亿美元的公司的 2000 亿、3000 亿或 4000 亿美元的价值承诺。所以,我也喜欢这一方面,即我不必努力去达到那个水平,不是吗?
I love this aspect From investment. I would like to Added, as we mentioned in Meta loop, I prefer Investing in a company that does not Half of its revenue depends on Approximately on Anthropic Artificial intelligence Open.
Meta, on For example, do not rely On them. She doesn't have the same Type of computing business cloud-based, and therefore There is no commitment of value 200, 300, or 400 billion Dollar from a company that Its revenues exceed Currently $40 billion.
So, I like this. The side also, where no I strive To get to this The level, isn't it?
Meta 最近宣布推出其在云计算领域的业务。也许他们想达到那里。这是对的。然而,正如我们所学到的,即使在那个阶段也取决于他们如何实施。举例来说,我想象他们的客户可能来自那些广告和与 Meta 的往来有限的小公司,而不是拥有 Google 和 Amazon 的大公司,最有可能。
而且,因为我们注意到云计算市场极其稳定。尽管 Google Cloud、Amazon 和 Microsoft 的计算服务在过去两年里取得了显著增长,但这并不是因为客户更换了他们的云服务,而是因为加入了更多客户,然后 Google 用户长期转向 Google Cloud。
确实,Amazon 拥有领先优势,但你看不到客户的变化。因此,我不认为 Meta 会抢走很多 Google 或 Amazon 或 Microsoft 的客户。无论如何,如果它成功了,我认为他们绝对会获得新的客户群,而且往往是那些 Meta 目前正在使用的中型公司。
所以他们可能会获得 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 的投资,但我不认为这必然会发生。
Meta recently announced Launching her business in the field Cloud computing. permission They want to reach There. This is correct. However, as Learn, even in those The stage depends Kind of on how Their implementation of that. on For example, what I imagine that their customers They may be from companies The small one that is limited Its advertisements and dealings With Meta, not the companies The large one she owns Google and Amazon in Most likely.
Also, because we We have noticed that the computing market Cloud stable Extremely. Despite The significant growth that Computing services achieved it Google Cloud Amazon and Microsoft In the past two years, However, this is not due to Customer change For their cloud services. but rather It comes down to joining More customers, then Google users move Sweet for a long time Google Cloud.
It is true that Amazon had an advantage Leadership, but you don't see it A change in customers. Therefore, I don't think Meta It will capture a lot of Google or Amazon customers Or Microsoft.
On any Now, if it works, I think they will get On a new customer base Absolutely, and often These companies Medium-sized that Meta is currently in use. So They might get Investments from OpenAI and Anthropic, but I don't think This will inevitably happen .
问题在于那期关于Meta的节目,我们不得不在纽约市那场会议之前录制,但事情进展得不错。因为我们当时经常出差。所以,两期节目之间我们有两周时间。当然,这两周里他又看到了更多关于Meta的新消息,是两年还是三年的。
所以,我想我们会播出一期特别节目来讨论所有话题。我们会回答任何问题。这是一个非常有趣的话题,而且它和我的钱包、我的投资有一种个人联系。运气这东西,某种程度上是时机问题,因为我在录制那期节目时买入了股票,随后几周事情进展顺利。
但考虑到这个领域里服务的扩散,我也不会感到意外。所以,正如我提到的,谷歌在十周内又推出了另一个智能体,这将彻底改变局面。因此,我们计划再播出一期节目,下周二。也许那会是一个更详细地谈论Meta的好机会。
The problem is The "meta" episode is that we We had to record it before Our conference in the city New York, but things It went well. Because we were traveling a lot. So, it was We have two weeks between The two broadcasts.
And of course, he witnessed These two weeks more New news about Dead for two years or three. So, I think we We will broadcast a special episode To discuss all Topics. We will answer Any questions?
that it A very interesting topic, and it has A personal connection to my wallet Investment. Swear to me luck, sort of By timing, because I bought the shares when We recorded the episode, then it proceeded Things are going well in The following weeks.
But I wouldn't be surprised, Given the spread Services in this field So, as I mentioned, Google has launched another agent Within ten weeks, This will change the picture Entirely.
Therefore, we plan to broadcast an episode Another one on Tuesday Next. Perhaps it will be A good opportunity to talk about Meta in more detail .
第二,这些智能体彼此竞争,不是吗?像Alphabet、Meta和Cloud这样的公司都寻求提供智能体,人人都想要它们为自己所用,因此它们努力提供最好的结果和更多的收益。
Second, the agents They compete with each other, Isn't that so? Companies like Alphabet, Meta, and Cloud seek All of them to provide agents Everyone wants to Their use, therefore, They strive to provide the best Results and more benefit.
也许关于Airbnb,我脑子里闪过这个想法。很简单,但我不知道你的看法。我们谈过Meta,比如说,举个例子,你去那里是为了娱乐。正因如此,比如说,在业务的持续成功中,广告就在其中。
Perhaps regarding Airbnb, it has This thought crossed my mind. It's simple, but no I know your opinion. We talked about Meta site, for example For example, the fact that you You go there for entertainment.
And that's why, on For example, in Continued success of the business The advertisements are in it.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
The Intrinsic Value Podcast 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。