短期上涨空间已耗尽,因此卖出LEAPS期权以获利;鉴于业务持续增长以及2027年可能达到900至1000美元的目标价,继续持有股票多头仓位。
逐段跳播
三周前,我用Lips期权对MetaTrader下了一个相当大胆的赌注。希望你没有错过那笔交易。因为“leap”期权是带杠杆的,当股票上涨3%时,期权可能上涨9%或10%,因为它是一种杠杆工具。
所以,你在这里看到我公开平仓“Meta”的提醒。这是我的金融中心,它赚了超过11,000美元。
Three weeks ago, I made a rather bold bet on MetaTrader using Lips options . I hope you didn't miss out on that deal. Because a " leap" option is leveraged, when the stock rises by 3%, the option can rise by 9 or 10% because it is a leveraged instrument.
So, you see the reminder here where I publicly covered "Meta". Here is my financial center that made a profit of more than $11,000.
让我谈谈我是如何知道“Meta”是一笔绝佳买入的,以及当前的机会在哪里。重要的是我当初为什么买入“Meta”,因为同样的方法现在正向我展示另一个机会。
Let me discuss how I knew that "Meta" was a great purchase, and where the current opportunity lies. The important thing is why I bought "Meta" in the first place, because the same process is now showing me another opportunity.
首先,你为什么认为Meta在每股约580美元时被低估了?当我买入Meta时,我并不是想预测下周的股价。我看的是业务层面,而这是我认为投资者在一家伟大公司开始被大幅抛售时会忘记的事情。
股价的变化速度可能远快于公司基本业务的变化速度。
First, why did you think Meta was undervalued at around $580 per share? When I bought Meta, I wasn't trying to predict the stock price the following week. I was looking at the business side, and this is something I think investors forget when a great company starts selling aggressively.
The share price can change much faster than the company's underlying business changes.
Meta的业务仍在非常快速地增长。事实上,在第二季度,Meta实现了608亿美元的收入。对于地球上最大的公司之一来说,这是28%的同比增长。想想这实际上有多疯狂。我们谈论的不是一家以28%增长、规模50亿美元的公司。
我们谈论的是Meta、Facebook、Instagram、WhatsApp和Messenger。
Meta's business was still growing very rapidly. In fact, in the second quarter, Meta generated revenues of $60.8 billion . That's 28 % year-on-year growth for one of the largest companies on Earth.
Think about how crazy that actually is. We are not talking about a $5 billion company growing at 28%. We are talking about Meta, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Messenger.
该公司仍在实现你通常只会与规模小得多的科技公司联系在一起的增长数字。但收入增长并不是唯一引起我注意的数字。广告的展示量。这极其重要,因为广告是Meta的核心业务。这是她赚钱的全部来源。
The company is still achieving growth figures that you would normally associate with a much smaller technology company . But revenue growth wasn't the only figure that caught my attention.
The appearance of advertisements. Well, this is extremely important because advertising is Meta's core business. This is where she makes all her money.
广告展示量增长了14%。Meta每则广告获得的平均价格上涨了另外12%。这很惊人,而这正是我作为投资者所寻找的那种扩张。Meta平台平均每天有36亿人使用。这是世界上最大的竞争优势之一。
Ad visibility increased by 14%. The average price that Meta received per ad increased by another 12%. This is amazing, and this is exactly the kind of expansion I'm looking for as an investor .
Meta platforms are used on average by 3.6 billion people every day. That is one of the biggest competitive advantages in the world.
如今广告就是一切。这是一场争夺注意力的战争。你可以在所有社交媒体平台上看到这一点,人们每天花在它们上面的时间,以及从它们身上赚到的钱。仅第二季度,Meta就实现了约594亿美元的广告收入。
Advertising is everything these days. It's a war for attention. You can see this across all social media platforms, the amount of time people spend on them daily, and the amount of money made from them.
Meta generated approximately $59.4 billion in advertising revenue in the second quarter alone.
这是为扎克伯格想打造的其他一切提供资金的引擎。人工智能不一定需要成为一个完全独立的业务,Meta才能从中赚钱。如果人工智能让Instagram的推荐稍微好一点,或者让人们更长时间地观看Reels,又或者帮助广告主制作更好的广告,那么,你能明白我的意思。
Meta可以在它已经拥有的同一个生态系统内,仅仅通过做出一些改进,就赚到更多的钱,而且是大笔的钱。
This is the engine that funds everything else Zuckerberg wants to build. Artificial intelligence does not necessarily need to become a completely separate business for Meta to make money from it.
If artificial intelligence makes Instagram's recommendations a little better , or keeps people watching Reels for longer, or maybe helps advertisers create better ads, well, you can see what I'm getting at.
Meta can generate more money, and in large quantities, within the same ecosystem it already owns, simply by making a few improvements.
这是我对这只股票保持乐观的最大原因之一。这就是为什么我在3周前说:“我认为在550美元买入Meta是一笔绝佳的交易。”当我在三周前报出每股580美元的价格时,我的Discord社区已经在580美元提前入场,而我,找不到更好的说法,就是在吹嘘我们在这个价格上有多成功。想象一下今天的情况,不是吗?仅仅过了3到4周。
This is one of the biggest reasons why I remain optimistic about this stock. That's why I said 3 weeks ago: "I think buying Meta at $550 is a great deal." By the time I quoted the price at $580 per share three weeks ago, my Discord community had already entered early at 580, and I was, for lack of a better expression, bragging about how successful we were at that price.
Just imagine the situation today, can't you? After only 3 or 4 weeks.
Meta不需要为人工智能的重要性创造一个全新的业务。人工智能可以改善它当前的工作。这就是为什么我目前正从“Meta”身上赚钱。
Meta doesn't need to create an entirely new business for artificial intelligence to be important. Artificial intelligence can improve its current work. That's why I'm currently making money from "Meta".
现在,这才是真正有趣的地方,因为投资者有正当理由对“meta”感到担忧,那就是支出。Meta预计2026年将在资本支出上花费约1300亿至1450亿美元,以支持其业务核心的人工智能基础设施。
这是一笔非常庞大的金额。你已经可以看到这对其运营费用的影响。运营费用大幅增加,而这是Meta面临的风险之一。
Now , this is where things get really interesting, because there is a legitimate reason for investors to be concerned about "meta ", and that is spending. Meta expects to spend approximately $130 billion to $145 billion on capital expenditures in 2026 to support the artificial intelligence infrastructure at the heart of its business.
This is a very large amount of money. You can already see the impact of that on its operating expenses. Operating expenses have increased significantly, and this is one of the risks facing Meta.
第二季度自由现金流仅为7.84亿美元,而去年同期为85亿美元。因此,随着基础设施支出的增加,这显著影响了它们的净利润。
Free cash flow was only $784 million in the second quarter, compared to $8.5 billion in the same quarter last year. Therefore, with increased spending on infrastructure, this significantly impacts their net profits.
所以,当投资者问:“Henry,如果所有这些人工智能支出都没有回报怎么办?”这是一个完全正当的担忧。事实上,这是你在买入Meta股票之前需要理解的风险。
So, when investors ask, "Henry, what if all this spending on artificial intelligence doesn't pay off?" This is a perfectly legitimate concern . In fact, this is the risk you need to understand before buying Meta stock.
但在这里,我也认为机会开始变得真正有趣。很长一段时间以来,投资者可以看着Meta在人工智能上的支出说:“好吧,你花了所有这些钱。新的收入在哪里?”好吧,现在我们开始得到答案了。
Meta最近扩展到企业AI,寻找直接向企业销售AI产品和服务的方法,而不是完全依赖广告。这很重要;因为Meta在人工智能上的投资回报有两种不同的可能性。第一种是通过提供更好的推荐、更有效的广告和更高的参与度来改善Facebook和Instagram。
但第二种可能性要大得多。Meta能否把所有这些AI基础设施转变为一个全新的业务?如果答案最终是肯定的,投资者可能不得不开始以不同的眼光看待“meta”。
But here, too, I think the opportunity starts to get really interesting. For a long time, investors could look at Meta's spending on artificial intelligence and say, "Okay, you're spending all this money .
Where's the new revenue?" Okay, now we're starting to get an answer. Meta has recently expanded into enterprise AI, looking for ways to sell AI products and services directly to businesses, rather than relying entirely on advertising.
This is important; Because there are two different possibilities for the returns on Meta's investments in artificial intelligence. The first is to improve Facebook and Instagram, by providing better recommendations, more effective ads , and increased engagement.
But the second possibility is much more likely . Can Meta transform all this AI infrastructure into an entirely new business? If the answer is ultimately yes, investors may have to start looking at " meta" differently.
我是Meta最早的投资者之一,就像我在Palantir、Nvidia、AMD、Bloom Energy以及我频道上许多其他公司一样。你可以看我所有的旧视频,你会看到我对我的大多数押注都是对的。
I was one of the first investors in Meta, just as I was in Palantir, Nvidia, AMD, Bloom Energy, and many more on my channel. You can watch all my old videos , and you'll see that I was right about most of my bets.
“Meta”中的核心仓位实际上并没有那么大。我赚了11,000美元,但总体而言,我在Meta的仓位要大得多,而且不幸的是,我持有的Lib期权实现了出色的百分比回报,我的社区也从中受益,但我投资的股票表现真的很好。它的价值增加了,但没有“Lip”期权那么多。
The central size in "Meta" is not that big in reality. I made $11,000, but overall, my position in Meta is much larger, and unfortunately, the Lib options I own have achieved excellent percentage returns , and my community has benefited from that, but the stocks I've invested in have performed really well .
Its value has increased, but not as much as that of "Lip" options.
所以,我觉得我有点恼火;因为我清楚地看到了关于“meta”的指标,但我没有在“lib”期权上大举投资。所以,我有点责怪自己,你知道,持有太多股票而没有足够多的长期期权合约。
So, I think I'm a little annoyed ; Because I saw the indicators clearly regarding "meta", but I did not invest heavily in "lib" options. So, I kind of blame myself, you know, for owning too much stock and not enough long-term option contracts .
事实上,我现在不幸地认为,Meta已经实现了显著的短期增长,所以这是一个卖出部分股票并获利了结的好时机,尤其是它从550美元涨到700美元以上、Meta今天稳定在这一水平所带来的短期利润。
In fact, I now believe, unfortunately, that Meta has achieved significant short-term growth , so this is a good time to sell some shares and take profits, especially the short-term profits it has made from this huge rise from $550 to over $700 where Meta is settling today.
对我来说,目前是获利了结的时候,因为我可能会清掉我的长期期权合约。不过,我打算继续持有我的股票,因为我相信 Meta 仍有更大的增长空间。
For me at the moment, it's a time to take profits as I'm likely to get rid of my long-term option contracts . However, I plan to hold onto my shares because I believe that Meta still has more room to grow.
事实上,我认为到 2027 年 Meta 可能达到每股 900 美元甚至 1,000 美元。但短期内,我认为增长动能已经耗尽。
In fact, I think Meta could reach $900 or even $1,000 per share by 2027. But in the short term, I think the growth momentum has run its course.
所以,这个视频里我想回答的最大问题是:当初促使我买入 Meta 的理由是否已经改变,而现在是否确实是卖出的正确时机?
So, the big question I want to answer in this video is: Have the reasons that led me to buy "Meta" changed, and is this definitely the right time to sell?
我买入 Meta 的理由并没有改变,但如果你有盈利,现在是卖出的好时机吗?如你所知,我显然已经从长期期权合约中赚取了可观的利润。现在是时候从长期期权合约中获利了吗?我认为答案是肯定的,我现在会从 Meta 的长期期权合约中提取利润。
Well, the reason I bought Meta hasn't changed, but is this a good time to sell if you have a profit? As you know, I have obviously made substantial profits from long-term option contracts .
Is it a good time to profit from long-term option contracts ? I think the answer is yes, I will withdraw profits from long-term options contracts in "Meta" now.
公司持续增长,其广告业务规模庞大,仍有数十亿人在使用它的产品。人工智能已经在帮助其核心业务,我认为我们现在将看到的是,尽管由于投入了大量资金,Meta 尚未实现其最好的季度利润,但它将赚到多得多的钱。
所以 Meta 现在正试图创造更多方式,将其已经投入大量资金的基础设施变现,我认为这会非常奏效。
The company continues to grow, its advertising business is huge, and billions still use its products. Artificial intelligence is already helping the core business, and I think what we're going to see now is that Meta will make a lot more money even though it hasn't had its best quarterly profits because of all the money it's investing.
So Meta is now trying to create additional ways to monetize the infrastructure on which it has already spent a lot of money , and I think this will work very well.
这能保证股价上涨吗?绝对不能。如果 Meta 继续以这样的速度投入,却无法产生合适的回报,市场可能会惩罚该股,情况可能很快就会逆转。
Does this guarantee that the share price will rise? Absolutely not. If Meta continues to spend at this rate without generating a suitable return, the market may punish the stock and things could turn very quickly.
这正是我认为 Meta 目前是一只有趣股票的原因。你得到的是一个非常赚钱的广告业务,加上对人工智能的巨大投资,后者最终很可能会带来回报,而这一点目前仍是市场上争论不休的话题。这种意见分歧通常正是最大机会所在。
That's precisely why I think Meta is an interesting stock at the moment. You get a very lucrative advertising business plus a huge investment in artificial intelligence, which will likely pay off eventually , something that is still a subject of much debate in the market right now.
This difference of opinion is usually where the greatest opportunities lie.
所以我有点自豪,因为我逆势而为,最终取得了非常好的结果。但我并不是因为之前的交易成功就非要去追 Meta。对于 Meta 股票的价格,情况略有不同。那么,我今天要做什么?我会设定一个价格,使潜在回报能为我所承担的风险提供足够的补偿。
在当前价格下,我对 Lippes 期权已不再那么乐观,但我对股票本身仍然乐观。
So I am somewhat proud that I went against the grain and ended up achieving very good results . But I'm not really interested in chasing Meta just because my previous trading was successful, you know.
The situation is slightly different for the price of " Meta" stock. So, what am I going to do today? I will set a price at which the potential return will give me sufficient compensation for the risk I am taking.
At the current price, I am no longer very optimistic about Lippes' options, but I am still optimistic about the stock itself.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Invest with Henry 在这只股票上共 4 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。