META 的逻辑是高速增长、宽阔护城河与低估值,而凭借 Muse Wonder 前沿模型,它如今在 AI 公司中处于领先地位,并拥有唯一的个性化智能体 Muse。它仍被低估,应以 26 至 27 倍远期市盈率交易,预计估值还将进一步扩张。
逐段跳播
Mark Zuckerberg 点了一份西瓜。他今早拿这个开玩笑。实际上,那是他即将发布的新模型的代号。这个新模型叫 Muse Wonder。该股今天目前上涨4%。
Mark Zuckerberg ordered a watermelon. He teased that this morning. In reality, that was the code name for the new model that he was going to release. The new model's called Muse Wonder. The stock is now up 4% on the day.
接下来,我们来看一些 Meta 的消息。Meta 继续以很强的信心在交易。这只股票动能十足。在 Mark Zuckerberg 在推特上发帖之后,它今天上涨了3%到4%。他发帖说“Muse 给我点了西瓜。真贴心”,还配了一张西瓜的图片。
Now, moving on, we get into some Meta news. Meta continues trading with a lot of confidence. This stock has a lot of momentum. It's moving up 3 to 4% on the day after Mark Zuckerberg said on a on Twitter.
He posted that Muse ordered me watermelon. How thoughtful with a picture of a watermelon.
Alexander Wing 在内部表示,Meta 终于追上了 OpenAI。他们终于追上了那些前沿模型。那他们是怎么追上 OpenAI 的?靠的就是这个模型,代号叫 Watermelon,但它的正式名称是 Muse Wonder。
Mark Zuckerberg 今天发布了它,介绍了 Muse Wonder,这是我们全新的前沿模型系列,在个人和专业智能体工作上具备最先进的性能。
Alexander Wing has said internally that Meta is finally catching up to OpenAI. They're finally catching up to the Frontier models. And how are they catching up to OpenAI? Well, with this model, which is Watermelon, that's the code name for it, but its official name is Muse Wonder.
Mark Zuckerberg released today, introducing Muse Wonder, our new family of Frontier models with state-of-the-art performance for personal and professional agentic work.
简单来说,Muse Wonder 非常出色,Meta 一直在以很快的速度超越竞争对手。你可以看到这里的图示。有 Muse Spark,它当时还落后于大部队。然后是 Musepark 1.1,接着是 1.2,向前跃升了两个位次。
然后是 Musepark 1.3,又向前跃升了三个位次。然后是 Muse Wonder。接着是 Muse Wonder full,它现在实际上已经领先于除 Claude Opus 5.5 之外的所有模型,而且仅略微落后于 Claude Opus。
所以你可以看到它追赶其他模型的速度有多快。现在它几乎已经处于最前列,与 Anthropic 当前最好的模型并驾齐驱。
To put it simply, Muse Wonder is super good and Meta has been leaprogging ahead of the competition at a rapid pace. You can see a visual here. You have Muse Spark, which was behind the pack.
Then we have Musepark 1.1, then 1.2 two that leaped ahead two positions. Then we have Musepark 1.3 that leaped ahead another three positions. Then we have Muse Wonder. Then we have Muse Wonder full which is now literally ahead of all the models except for Claude Opus 5.5 and it is barely behind Claude Opus.
So you can see how fast this is gaining on the other models. Now it's virtually at the top of the pack. It's right there with Anthropic's best current model.
Meta 还回应了人们对基准测试的担忧,因为我们知道很多模型可以被专门训练,以便在某些基准测试中表现良好。有些人把这叫做“刷榜”。这里重要的一点是,随着我们扩大测试时计算量,这两个模型在分布外任务上的提升是相似的,但考虑到其分布表现,Muse Wonder full 在陌生任务上的表现甚至比 Muse Spark 1.3 的趋势所预测的还要好。
所以这有点像用一种奇怪的方式说明,他们并不是想钻基准测试的空子。他们不是靠让模型只在几个专门为在基准测试中取得好成绩而精心挑选的任务上表现优秀来刷榜。不是的,即使你抛出各种不同的随机任务、它不熟悉的东西,它在各方面也都有极其出色的表现。
Meta also addressed concerns of the benchmarks because we know a lot of models can be trained specifically to perform well during some like benchmark test. This is benchmaxing is what some of them are calling it.
Now the important thing here is that both of the models improve similarly on outofdistribution tasks as we scale test time compute but given its distribution performance muse wonderful full performs even better on unfamiliar tasks in Muse Spark 1.3 uh trend would predict.
So this is like a weird way of saying that they're not trying to game the benchmark. They're not benchmaxing by just making their models good at a couple tasks that are particularly curated to advance in a benchmark.
No, even when you throw all different random tasks, things that it's unfamiliar with, it also has incredibly good performance across the board.
他们给出了这个模型的一些例子,比如规划一次跑步。你可以看到它直接打开某人的日历,新建一个日历条目,然后你可以看到它浏览所有代码并反复迭代,查看地点的地图,然后它真的会根据这个人想跑的距离画出一条跑步路线。
它把所有信息放进备注里,还根据他们的需求附上时间等等。所以如果你想让 Muse 规划一次跑步,你可以做到。这就像是一个例子,说明我认为 Mark Zuckerberg、Alexander 以及所有这些人设想人们实际会如何使用 Muse。
就是让它替你做那些你不想做的烦人事情,比如规划跑步。你大概是想去跑步的,但你并不想真的去弄清楚该去哪里跑、跑多远、哪条路线比较好、又和你上次跑的不一样。所以你可以让它去做那些烦人的部分,而你可以专注于有趣的部分,也就是出门真正去跑。我认为这就是他们的设想。
Now, they give examples of this model like planning a run. You can see it just open up someone's calendar. It makes a new calendar entry and then you can see the the things like going through all the code and iteration looking at a map of of the location and then it literally draws out a run depending on the person's desired distance they want to run.
It it puts all the information into the notes. it has the time for it and everything based on what they want. So if you want Muse to map out a run, you can do that. So this is like one example of I think how Mark Zuckerberg and Alexander and all these people envision people actually using Muse.
It's just to do the kind of annoying things that you don't want to do for you, like planning a run. You probably want to go on a run, but you don't want to actually go and figure out where to run and the distance and where would be a good run that's different from the last one you did.
So you could have it do that kind of annoying part while you get to focus on the fun part which is going out and actually going on a run. I think that's how they envision it.
当然,会有很多人试图以不良方式使用它。他们做了很多管控措施来确保模型是安全的,确保它们在执行任务前会请求许可,确保它们不会把你的信息或个人资料显示在任何地方。他们为此投入了巨大的努力,因为如果 Meta 失去了对其模型的信任,如果 Muse 不可信,那么人们就不会使用 Muse 应用,而到目前为止,这是他们最拿得出手的优势之一。
Of course there's going to be a lot of people that try to use it in bad ways. There's a lot of controls are doing to make sure that the models are safe that they ask for permission before taking tasks that they don't display your information or your personal stuff anywhere. uh there's an enormous amount of effort doing that because if Meta loses trust with their models, if Muse isn't trustworthy, then people aren't going to use the Muse app and so far that's one of the best things they have going for them.
总体来看,我认为这是 Meta 的又一大步。随着时间推移,我对这家公司越来越看多。我认为这家公司的基本逻辑是它增长非常快,拥有宽阔的护城河,而且估值便宜。但现在,这家公司还在一众 AI 公司中处于领先地位。
它拥有一个真正的前沿模型,一个与 Claude 并驾齐驱的模型。而且它是唯一一家拥有个性化智能体的公司,那就是 Muse。没有人真正把 ChatGPT 或 Claude 当作自己的个性化智能体。
人们把它们用于不同的商业应用,也许是回答问题,但 Muse 已经成为事实上的智能体。所以,我相信 Meta 在这里仍有重大的机会。
I see overall that this is another huge step in meta. I become more and more bullish on this company over time. I think the base thesis for the company is that it was growing really fast.
It has a wide moat and it's at a cheap valuation. But now you have a company that also is leading in the pack of AI companies. It has a truly a truly frontier model, one that is right there with Claude.
And it's the only company that has a personalized agent, which is Muse. Nobody really looks at ChateBT or Claude as being their personalized agent. They use it for different business applications, maybe answering questions, but Muse has become the deacto agent.
So, I believe that Meta still has a significant opportunity here.
当我看这家公司时,它是我今天最令人兴奋的投资之一。我认为这家公司应该以26到27倍的前瞻市盈率交易。我认为还应该有更多的估值倍数扩张。我仍然相信 Meta 被低估了。
When I look at this company, it's one of my most exciting investments today. I think the company should be trading at a 26 to 27 Ford PE ratio. I think there should be more multiple expansion. I still believe Meta is undervalued.
这个频道对 $META 的历次判断
Joseph Carlson After Hours 在这只股票上共 7 条判断,这里只列相邻的几条。